Ernesto Weaker, Restrengthening Likely Before Yucatan Landfall

By: Levi32 , 3:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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Ernesto has weakened considerably in satellite presentation since yesterday, and recon and Oceansat passes have confirmed that this is now an open wave. It goes to show that satellite appearance can be deceiving in the central-eastern Caribbean with storms like this, and this kind of weakening before 75W was expected. The NHC will likely continue advisories on Ernesto even though it is undeserving of its name, simply because it is expected to regain a circulation in the near future.

Now phase 2 of Ernesto's life begins, as later tonight and tomorrow it will enter conditions more conducive for regeneration and further development. The upper low over the Gulf of Mexico is making its way WSW out of the way and starting to ventilate the NW Caribbean, and Ernesto should have room to expand an upper ridge once convection starts firing again. The global models support this upper pattern developing within the next 72 hours. The ECMWF is finally onboard with restrengthening, something it has refused to show until the last couple of runs. While hurricane intensity is not yet impossible before reaching the Yucatan, Ernesto is very beat up, and how much it can restrengthen before landfall will heavily depend on how soon and how fast it starts regenerating. The longer it hesitates, the better the news for the Yucatan. A strengthening tropical storm near Chetumel seems the most likely scenario now.

Once across the Yucatan, Ernesto will be weakened again, but again should restrengthen, likely to its maximum intensity while in the western Gulf of Mexico, and here I think it will have enough time over water to become a hurricane. The ECMWF now supports this, though the other global models have just become weaker and farther south with time. My target area from the last couple of days of the northern half of Mexico to extreme south Texas still looks good. At this time we can basically discount Ernesto getting any farther north than that, and the north gulf coast can rest easy now. The farther north Ernesto tracks in the gulf, the more time over water it will have with favorable conditions aloft, and the stronger it will get. Interests along the west gulf coast and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor Ernesto closely. He's coming back, and is not done just yet.

We shall see what happens!

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6. Storm4Ivana
9:29 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Thank you Levi for your Tropical briefings. You are well versed and I enjoy learning more about the forecasting aspects of Tropical Meteorology.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
5. DeValk
4:24 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Well Done. Very detailed forecast...as always. Thx
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
4. stormchaser19
4:21 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Congrats Levi excelent!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
3. RidingTheStormOut
4:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Good stuff Levi, thanks.
Bob
Member Since: October 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
2. tennisgirl08
4:09 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
As always, nice blog Levi!

2 scenarios that I am pondering at this moment, and any input you have on these would be appreciated:

1) Ernesto fully dissipates over the Yucatan?

2) Ernesto begins to strengthen before hitting the Yucatan, but then weakens due to land interaction. The weakening trend causes a center reformation further to the north - changing the track forecast as he re-emerges in the Gulf?

The reason I am concerned about scenario #2 is because climatologically this happened several times in the past.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
1. Hoff511
4:07 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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