Atlantic Still Quiet, though Tropical Wave May Bring Wetness to Bahamas and SE U.S.

By: Levi32 , 7:47 AM GMT on July 11, 2012

Share this Blog

Visit my new home at

I apologize for the lack of posts since Debby's dissipation. Summer has been busy so far for me.

The Atlantic remains quiet through the first 10 days of July, as was expected. It will continue to be this way through at least the end of the month the way things currently look. El Nino years favor a quick-firing start to the season in June, but a quick ramp-down to start the heart of summer. Our next real shot at tropical development will likely not come until August when the MJO comes back to the Atlantic and drags some upward motion out of the eastern Pacific, where they have a whole train of storms going, and moves it into the Atlantic as the African wave train strengthens.

Speaking of waves, the only somewhat interesting feature to watch right now is a very large, dry tropical wave along 45W that has no thunderstorms associated with it, but can be seen with a vigorous signature in the mid-level flow.

This wave will be moving WNW into the the region between the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the SE U.S. during the next 4-7 days, being steered towards this region by a strong Bermuda High to the north. While none of the computer models currently do anything with this wave, moisture will be becoming more abundant in the SW Atlantic as the wave moves in, and upper-level temperatures are and will continue to be colder than normal due to significant upper-level troughing over the Bahamas, which overlaying 28-29C waters can cause some instability. As a result, some convection can be expected off the SE U.S. coast that may bring some wetness to the Bahamas and the coastal SE U.S. over the weekend. Given the large size of the wave, tropical or subtropical development chances seem low for now, especially with no excitement from the computer models, but expect the atmosphere to become rather soupy in the region with at least some thunderstorm activity, perhaps a little more than currently forecasted by some of the models.

CMC 96-hour forecast:

If you couldn't tell, I'm showing off some of the new graphics I have been developing in my spare time. The first image was a GDAS analysis of 650mb meridional wind/heights, and the 2nd was the well-known Canadian model forecast. These and more products can be found on the Analysis Tools page. I will be adding more as time goes on.

Overall, the Atlantic in general will likely remain void of significant tropical activity until August. Remember, a fast start doesn't always mean an above-normal hurricane season. We should end up with a near normal storm count by the end of it.

We shall see what happens!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

2. Hoff511
9:16 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
1. LowerCal
5:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2012
The NHC doesn't have the nerve to give this kind of a long term outlook. In fairness, there are good reasons why they shouldn't but your highly informed evaluation is much appreciated, Levi. Thanks for all you do.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 9706

Viewing: 4 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
83 °F
Scattered Clouds

Levi32's Recent Photos

Recommended Links

Personal Weather Stations

Fritz Creek, AK
Elevation: 3 ft
Temperature: 52.0 °F
Dew Point: 51.0 °F
Humidity: 98%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 5:30 AM AKDT on September 05, 2015
Overlooking Peterson Bay
Homer, AK
Elevation: 27 ft
Temperature: 0.0 °F
Dew Point: 0.0 °F
Humidity: 0%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 5:41 AM AKDT on September 05, 2015
Homer, AK
Elevation: 854 ft
Temperature: 50.0 °F
Dew Point: 50.0 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 4:54 AM AKDT on September 05, 2015

About Personal Weather Stations