GOM Development Possible Late Next Week - Ghost of Allison?

By: Levi32 , 2:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2012

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The developing pattern continues to look favorable for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico later next week as the MJO moves into phase 1, lending upward motion support to the western Atlantic, which is usually necessary for getting a June development. The ridging pattern over the Great Lakes also supports piling up of air to the south of the United States, which leads to upward motion and lowering of pressures in the Gulf of Mexico, and this is being echoed by all of the models. What the models are not seeing consistently yet is actual development of a storm, with only last night's CMC currently showing one, but we are still 7-12 days away. The models will likely become more consistent one way or another once the MJO stops racing across the Pacific and settles down in phase 1, which it is forecasted to do.


Figure 1. 0z CMC 240-hour forecast

The pattern looks very similar to when Allison formed in June 1989, as well as the more recent Allison in June 2001. Here are their tracks:


Figure 2. The tracks of the Allisons of 1989 and 2001.

Both storms were very similar, both moving quickly into Texas and then getting blocked, causing flooding. In the video I show the pattern that led to the blocking of both storms and compare it to the similar ensemble forecasts for next week, and the retrogressive pattern that occurred during both Allisons is supported by the currently very progressive MJO. This is a pattern that favors development more than usual for June standards, but even further than that, we may have to watch for the ghost of Allison with this setup, where a quick-hitting storm tries to develop in the gulf, move inland, and then potentially get blocked, either over land or water, causing a heavy rain event for the gulf coast.

We shall see what happens!

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15. msphar
1:06 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
2 weeks now, June will soon start getting long in the tooth. Time for a little entertainment. Are you working this summer ?
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
13. shoreacres
2:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2012
Ghost of Allison? Yikes! We could use some rain, but I'd hate to have a replay. Thanks for the update.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
12. LakeWorthFinn
2:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2012
Thank you :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7418
11. KoritheMan
12:38 AM GMT on June 13, 2012
Thanks, dude. Watching this carefully, or should I say excitedly. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
10. rmbjoe1954
4:38 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Thank you, Levi. Well done as usual.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
9. originalLT
4:35 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Never thought of hackers or a "cyber attack", thought it might be a technical glitch. But I guess it could have been. And thanks, Levi.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
8. Patrap
4:14 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
7. 7544
4:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
thanks levi good info as always
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
6. fireflymom
4:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Glad your site is up Levi, who knows why hackers select this site of all that is available, annoying.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
5. greentortuloni
4:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I have noticed that it is only Dr. Master's and Professor Rood's blogs that are down. Given their content, I suspect a hacker has gained access and wiped out their blogs. I fill certain that the network admins will work this out and regain control soon enough. The blogs should be able to be restored from backups. Hopefully.


I figured the same thing. I went to chat and was ruded at by someone called 'BanTech' about global warming being a joke. Ah, well.

Hey Levi, how are you? I only lurk in the main blog but I enjoy your posts. Still haven't figured out what someone from Homer is doing on a tropical blog but glad you are.

I lived in Kodiak for about 8 months so i can relate to your weather as well. (Nothing to do with fishing or CG, technical contract).
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
4. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:08 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
WU is down, lets all move to Levi's blog!


I have noticed that it is only Dr. Master's and Professor Rood's blogs that are down. Given their content, I suspect a hacker has gained access and wiped out their blogs. I fill certain that the network admins will work this out and regain control soon enough. The blogs should be able to be restored from backups. Hopefully.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
3. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:03 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Thanks Levi!

I wonder what is wrong with Dr. Masters and Rick Hood's blogs...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
2. CybrTeddy
3:59 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
WU is down, lets all move to Levi's blog!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
1. AtHomeInTX
3:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Had to watch you on youtube. WU's freaking out on me. Great job as usual. Thanks :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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