Atlantic quiet for now; Watching for GOM Development June 18th-25th

By: Levi32 , 7:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2012

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The Atlantic is currently quiet, with the only feature of interest being an old frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico that poses no significant threat for tropical development over the next few days, though it will bring rainfall to the gulf coast. As discussed back when Beryl was making landfall in Florida, the first half of June here is quiet, and will continue to be so through at least the 15th.

However, the signs for the next round of tropical activity have already been showing themselves, as the MJO is unanimously forecasted to come back into phases 8 and 1 in 10-15 days, bringing upward motion back to the Atlantic. At the same time, the models are forecasting anomalous ridging to develop over the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay region, and the fact that these anomalies are that far north means we have to watch to the south of the ridge for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean. All of the ensemble means show a significant lowering of pressures in the region after Day 10, with about half of the GFS ensemble members and CMC ensemble members all showing tropical development of some kind during the 10-15 day period.

The CPC analogs based off of the GFS ensemble Day 11 forecast are also very interesting. Looking at the top 3:

1) June 23rd, 1989 - Allison developed the next day and moved into Texas.

2) June 2th, 2005 - Arlene developed 6 days later and moved into Florida as a near-hurricane.

3) June 27th, 1975 - Amy developed in the Bahamas and moved up towards North Carolina.

So one can see that in very similar patterns to the one we are headed into, development has occurred multiple times. We always have to watch to the south of big ridges over the Great Lakes, as it usually means trouble of some kind. Notice that when Alberto and Beryl formed, a blocking ridge was found to their north over New England and the NW Atlantic, but here the ridge is shifting west, implying that the development region should shift west with it, and the Gulf of Mexico will have a shot at early-season development. Details on any potential development here will remain vague for a while since it is still a long ways out, but the period of June 18th-25th will likely see a significant uptick in activity in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

We shall see what happens!

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8. AtHomeInTX
10:40 PM GMT on June 08, 2012
Thanks Levi. Great job as usual!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 671
7. OGal
8:46 PM GMT on June 08, 2012




Good for you Levi. Have a fun summer.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
6. Levi32
8:33 PM GMT on June 08, 2012
Quoting OGal:




Wow, the GOM not a happy thing for us to hear here in Orlando. We just got back from a great trip to Homer catching our limit on halibut. Going to eat the first tomorrow night. Hope all is well with you Levi. Are you still in school or home? Which ever have a great summer.


Oh that's great, I'm glad to hear your trip was a success! I'm staying in Fairbanks for the summer to work.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
5. OGal
8:26 PM GMT on June 08, 2012




Wow, the GOM not a happy thing for us to hear here in Orlando. We just got back from a great trip to Homer catching our limit on halibut. Going to eat the first tomorrow night. Hope all is well with you Levi. Are you still in school or home? Which ever have a great summer.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
4. Levi32
8:02 PM GMT on June 08, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
nice levi, do you actually think we will see chris?
and where did you get those analog dates from?


I think the pattern coming up will significantly favor some kind of development.

The analog dates come from this CPC page.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
3. GeorgiaStormz
7:59 PM GMT on June 08, 2012
nice levi, do you actually think we will see chris?
and where did you get those analog dates from?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9718
2. nigel20
7:59 PM GMT on June 08, 2012
Thanks for the update Levi!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7759
1. seflagamma
7:47 PM GMT on June 08, 2012
Hi Levi,
Glad you are back with an update!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40879

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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