Heavy rain and tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas and Florida

By: Levi32 , 8:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2011

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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

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Tropical Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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11. BEENE
7:10 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
thanks levi
Member Since: June 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
10. Levi32
3:07 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
The unnamed subtropical storm of the 2011 hurricane season is making landfall on the space coast:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
9. Levi32
11:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
NHC didn't even up the percentage at 8pm. For the life of me I can't understand why.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
8. Levi32
11:04 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
This should be classified as a subtropical storm at 8pm (or 11pm). Will the NHC do it?

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
7. Levi32
8:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
Despite all but one of the top models forecasting otherwise, the lowest pressures are east of Florida this afternoon. It just goes to show that there is still a place for human forecasting logic, and it can prevail over the computer.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
6. ReefMaster
6:49 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
Many thanks Levi. Keeping an eye here on Invest 99. Should get drawn up north and doesn't look to have much time over water but we remember TS Arthur a while back that jumped across...
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
5. Levi32
4:20 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
Behold, the main low has formed east of West Palm Beach and is moving northwest, just as promised. A weak belt of vorticity extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico, but the dynamics were favored farther east. The low will continue northwest parallel to or over the Florida Peninsula, probably moving inland before it can pass Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in central Florida. Now we have to see if this center can become defined enough and warm-core enough for the NHC to name it before it goes inland.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
4. Hoff511
3:02 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
3. hurigo
11:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Brilliant presentation.
You remain awesome.
Thank you, Levi.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6748
2. seflagamma
8:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Great update,

so far my area only about 1" of rain in past 24 hrs but central Florida has been getting over 5" of rain so far and still pouring.

and it is very windy down here..

very interesting!

thanks,

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 304 Comments: 40995
1. seflagamma
8:08 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
Hi levi,

My Cellphone just went off and it was a message to let me know you have updated your tropical tibits once again.

will go watch and learn right now.

Thanks!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 304 Comments: 40995

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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