Subtropical development early next week may be potent, but not a dangerous surprise

By: Levi32 , 2:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2011

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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

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Our focus this weekend and early next week will be possible subtropical development in the Florida area. Right now there is not much going on in the region, but the models all show an upper trough amplifying over the Florida area in a couple of days that will start incubating the region and allowing thunderstorms to develop. Right now it appears that some sort of low pressure area will form, very possibly organized enough to be declared a subtropical storm, but until we actually physically see something start developing, we won't be able to confidently forecast whether it will be named.

The models are in a battle, mainly between the GFS and the ECMWF, on where the surface low will be in relation to the upper trough. The GFS makes more sense with the low near the eastern edge of the trough axis just east of Florida, while the Euro sticks it under the western side over the Gulf of Mexico. Even if we start out with a broad low transitioning over the Gulf of Mexico, I think secondary development would try to occur over or just east of the Florida Peninsula, where the focus of the rainfall will be. Don't expect to see a large amount of rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Florida, and perhaps Georgia and South Carolina, will likely get drenched for a few days straight in this scenario, with a strong onshore flow no matter what happens. Regardless of which side of Florida the low forms on, it will eventually move northward into the mainland around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north.

With the upper trough axis trending sharper and thinner on the models today, the upper-level setup doesn't look quite as favorable for significant strengthening of a potential system. However, we are likely still going to be looking at a potent low with decent pressure falls over the area, and the potential for tropical storm force winds near Florida and perhaps the other southeastern states as well if the low does move northward along the gulf stream. I don't expect this situation to blow up into a surprise hurricane, but don't be shocked if some folks see potent tropical storm conditions from a more focused low pressure area. Overall, it will likely be a few days of very blustery weather, but probably nothing too dangerous. Mor.e details will come around once we see low pressure start getting incubated later into this weekend

We shall see what happens!

Tropical Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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13. CentralFloridian
1:20 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks :)

Well it's interesting that you bring that up. Both EPAC storms could recurve into the continent, and although a trek across Mexico would take a lot out of them, it is very possible that some very welcomed moisture will make its way to Texas in the form of rainfall from one or both of these systems. It's a very interesting pattern that is ready to suck everything from the Pacific northeastward into North America.


I am hoping for that rain to get to Texas. It has been somewhat dry here this year but nothing compared to Texas i feel for them.
We are getting some good Rain this Morning and it looks like tomorrow is gonna be pretty wet also.
Member Since: October 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
12. Levi32
10:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting thelmores:
Levi,

I gotta make an observation, not about weather, but about your presentation.....

Nothing at all bad, you do a great job...... but you are such a "ice" presenter, I can almost tell what mood you are in by the excitement of your voice! LOL

Some days I can tell you are "more excited", perhaps in a "better mood" than other days...... and some days you just don't have that. I just find it interesting... almost feel like I am getting to know you! :)

Look forward to the day I can actually meet you face to face.......

I have been looking around, and it seems "most" forecasters are leaning towards the Gulf Low, favored by the Euro...... I like the fact that you are willing to go against the grain, stick your neck out a little, a base it on facts that your share with us.

You truly have inspired me to want to learn more about forecasting, unfortunately my busy life at the moment does not allow it, but I enjoy your daily "lesson"...... hopefully someday you can teach an old dog a new trick! :)


It was that little sigh I let out at one point wasn't it....lol. I should work on that icing...that doesn't sound like good presenting.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
11. Levi32
10:46 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting CentralFloridian:
Hi Levi, I fairly recently discovered your videos. I enjoy watching them very informative and I learn a bit too.
I was wondering what impact you think the storm west of Mexico are going to have on the US.


Thanks :)

Well it's interesting that you bring that up. Both EPAC storms could recurve into the continent, and although a trek across Mexico would take a lot out of them, it is very possible that some very welcomed moisture will make its way to Texas in the form of rainfall from one or both of these systems. It's a very interesting pattern that is ready to suck everything from the Pacific northeastward into North America.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
10. thelmores
10:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Levi,

I gotta make an observation, not about weather, but about your presentation.....

Nothing at all bad, you do a great job...... but you are such a "ice" presenter, I can almost tell what mood you are in by the excitement of your voice! LOL

Some days I can tell you are "more excited", perhaps in a "better mood" than other days...... and some days you just don't have that. I just find it interesting... almost feel like I am getting to know you! :)

Look forward to the day I can actually meet you face to face.......

I have been looking around, and it seems "most" forecasters are leaning towards the Gulf Low, favored by the Euro...... I like the fact that you are willing to go against the grain, stick your neck out a little, a base it on facts that your share with us.

You truly have inspired me to want to learn more about forecasting, unfortunately my busy life at the moment does not allow it, but I enjoy your daily "lesson"...... hopefully someday you can teach an old dog a new trick! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3831
9. CentralFloridian
8:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Hi Levi, I fairly recently discovered your videos. I enjoy watching them very informative and I learn a bit too.
I was wondering what impact you think the storm west of Mexico are going to have on the US.
Member Since: October 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
8. Levi32
6:58 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Quoting EagleHarborZig:
Great update Levi.
I am curious about how long it takes for you to do your analysis and produce the Tropical Tidbits. They are so informative, instructional, and professional.
It must not be easy with your other college demands on your time.
Thank you again.


The whole ordeal takes me about 2 hours. The downside is that those 2 hours are often the only time I can actually look at weather data all day, which means that my forecasts are often based on only a short period of analysis, which is unfortunate. I would probably have much more to offer if I had more time in the day to look at things.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
7. EagleHarborZig
3:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Great update Levi.
I am curious about how long it takes for you to do your analysis and produce the Tropical Tidbits. They are so informative, instructional, and professional.
It must not be easy with your other college demands on your time.
Thank you again.
Member Since: March 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
6. CIweatherlover
3:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
As always, you explain things in a way those of us just learning can understand, Thanks Levi!
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
5. seflagamma
3:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Great job, Levi.

Thanks!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 306 Comments: 41051
4. KeysieLife
3:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Sweet, thanks for the update Levi, always appreciated!
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 409
3. Hoff511
3:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
2. CitikatzSouthFL
3:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Thanks, Levi. Again, great information presented for the meteorology challenged! Currently very windy in S. FL and scattered storms to the west. It will be very interesting to see what, if anything, develops. We do need more rain because we are still behind even tho not in drought conditions. This month is our last shot for rain before the dry season begins.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 487
1. StAugustineWatcher
3:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Thanks Levi, always enjoy the Tundra updates. Looks to be a big soaker with some winds here on the beach. This is when the roof leaks make themselves known. We'll see how it plays out.
Member Since: September 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

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