Maria still struggling; West Caribbean and SW Atlantic to host mischief next week

By: Levi32 , 4:29 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

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Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with wind shear, and remains lopsided. The new trough ahead of her may both help and hinder her by both ventilating and shearing her, so she may strengthen a little bit, but it may be too hard for her to even reach hurricane status. We will have to see. Either way, she will not be a huge deal. She may make a close enough pass to Bermuda to generate tropical storm conditions there, and she may brush New Foundland on her way out as well, but for both areas she will not be a horrible storm.

The eastern Atlantic will continue to be monitored for future development, as some new tropical waves will be coming off in a few days that may try to stir up trouble.

The next concern for development close to land will be the pattern for next week that I have been talking about for a long time now. The models are starting to at least periodically support my idea that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean area sometime next week. The base reasoning for this remains the same. We will all be hearing about the record cold over the central-eastern U.S. over the next several days. This cold is raising surface pressures in the areas that have seen low pressure all summer. We know from experience that when big highs move over New England that we have to watch south of them for tropical mischief. The result of this is that air will start converging into the western Caribbean for the first time in a while, and with the eastern Pacific dead quiet, there will likely be monsoonal support with no competition from the Pacific side. Thus, the cards seem to be stacked for development.

The models are having a hard time picking up development on every run because we aren't getting it from a pre-existing disturbance like a tropical wave. In other words, this is what I have heard some people call "pattern-induced" development, where the overall pattern favors upward motion in a certain tropical region, and then development occurs, seemingly out of thin air. This is a situation that the models find hard to grasp, and that is why the GFS has been alternating from hurricanes to nothing in the 8-12 day period. The ECMWF hasn't really caught on yet but keeps hinting at it. It would be nice to get some solid model support for this idea that I've been pushing.

The models are also hinting at home-grown mischief occurring off of North Carolina in this pattern south of the New England high, and this is a possibility. We will have to see if a development farther north tries to steal the show from the Caribbean, or whether we get two different developments. I still think the Caribbean will try to fire something up either way. We shall see. Overall, this is a pattern under which people should be watchful to the south and east of the SE U.S. coast, because tropical development is likely to be at least attempted sometime next week, and it could move northward to affect the coastline.

We shall see what happens!

NHC Official Forecast for Tropical Storm Maria:



Tropical Storm Maria Model Track Forecasts:



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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23. AllyBama
12:55 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Happy Wednesday Levi!

Still reading and watching your tidbits. Always appreciated. I hope your school year has gotten off to a good start - good luck!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20647
22. hydrus
12:23 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Sorry to hear about your computer, could have been you instead of the laptop..I always stay vigilant late September thru all of October for mischief. S.W Florida has a tendency to get whacked, especially October, when the worst storm surge ever recorded here occurred in 1873.44 and 21 were very bad too. Thank you for the update.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25094
21. LakeWorthFinn
5:38 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Glad you didn't hurt yourself! I use socks with rubber dots under the feet...
Sound is fine, even "Katia" has still that sweet tone to it :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7697
20. TomTaylor
1:55 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
audio sounds fine to me Levi.

Nice update as always
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
19. wunderweatherman123
11:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Lee cooled it off. It will slowly rebound in the anomalies, but the actual temperature starts cooling a bit by the end of September anyway.
ah i see thank you but i remember and still have a video on september 23rd 2010 when matthew was in the carribean and the gulf of mexico was all red with pinks while the carribean was pink and red in terms of water temps based on the wunderground map. now the BOC is light orange which is 80-82 (cooling from nate) and most of the gulf is dark orange 83-85 with some spots 86-87. cooler than last year buy alot... there a difference from last year that the gulf was warmer than this year and in terms of ssts in the gulf right now are we below above or just avergae :) thanks levi
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1828
18. hurigo
10:28 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Hi Levi,
Thanks very much again.
Big Yellow Hatted Irene was the scariest, Katia was somewhat nerve-wracking, Maria didn't stress too much. Grateful for that. This late September thing you've been talking about for weeks, is it gonna come get me? I need to parse out my leave-taking and I am sure in the mood for a little bit more freedom in vacation-taking time.

Pardonemoi as I am in a hurry and didn't listen to your show today, barely scanned through the comments, I'll have to admit. Appreciate forgiveness and reply as you are able.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6777
17. thelmores
10:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Levi,

Just wanted you to know I view your video tidbit every day...... just wanted to thank you! I envy your forecasting ability, and really enjoy you going into detail about what you see....

You are an absolute natural at what you do

Just wanted to say thanks for your efforts! :)

I have also sent a PM to you as well.....

Mickey (Thelmores)

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3831
16. Levi32
9:43 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do you think anything that tried to develop would be monsoonal?


Well lol it's funny to watch what's being characterized as "monsoonal" nowadays. It may be "monsoonally-enhanced" by southwesterlies coming out of the Pacific, as many Caribbean storms are, but whether it is a monsoonal depression developing along the monsoon trough remains to be seen.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
15. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:19 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


The upper pattern over North America 2 days before Wilma formed is actually very similar to what is forecasted to be in place in 6-8 days by the GFS and ECMWF, with a weak trough over the central U.S. coming eastward and a big surface high over New England. We even had an attempt at home-grown hybrid mischief near Bermuda during the 2 days leading up to Wilma's formation, and the models are suggesting the same kind of thing off the Carolinas in several days.

The GFS forecasts a ballooning upper anticyclone over the western Caribbean in 8-12 days which is expected, and the Caribbean itself should be plenty favorable for potential development. The trick will be organizing a system without the help of a pre-existing disturbance like a tropical wave, unless we get a wave to come in and help out.


Do you think anything that tried to develop would be monsoonal?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34462
14. Levi32
8:47 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi,

Is this pattern similar to what it was for Hurricane Wilma? Where the storm formed in the western Caribbean, moved into the Eastern Gulf, and then into Florida?

Also, given the pattern forecast by the GFS, what kind of atmospheric conditions would be present in the Caribbean at the time?

Thanks for the blog entry!


The upper pattern over North America 2 days before Wilma formed is actually very similar to what is forecasted to be in place in 6-8 days by the GFS and ECMWF, with a weak trough over the central U.S. coming eastward and a big surface high over New England. We even had an attempt at home-grown hybrid mischief near Bermuda during the 2 days leading up to Wilma's formation, and the models are suggesting the same kind of thing off the Carolinas in several days.

The GFS forecasts a ballooning upper anticyclone over the western Caribbean in 8-12 days which is expected, and the Caribbean itself should be plenty favorable for potential development. The trick will be organizing a system without the help of a pre-existing disturbance like a tropical wave, unless we get a wave to come in and help out.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
13. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:26 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Levi,

Is this pattern similar to what it was for Hurricane Wilma? Where the storm formed in the western Caribbean, moved into the Eastern Gulf, and then into Florida?

Also, given the pattern forecast by the GFS, what kind of atmospheric conditions would be present in the Caribbean at the time?

Thanks for the blog entry!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34462
12. Levi32
7:46 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hi levi i dont know if you answered my question yesterday but can you explain to me why the gulf of mexico is much cooler now and do you see it getting any warmer? thanks


Lee cooled it off. It will slowly rebound in the anomalies, but the actual temperature starts cooling a bit by the end of September anyway.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
11. wunderweatherman123
7:44 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
hi levi i dont know if you answered my question yesterday but can you explain to me why the gulf of mexico is much cooler now and do you see it getting any warmer? thanks
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1828
10. Hoff511
6:37 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
9. Levi32
6:16 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks all for stopping by :)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

‎12z GFS Ensembles continue to gravitate towards a trough in the east by Day 12, a pattern associated strongly with late-season developments in the western Caribbean that move north or northeast into the gulf, Florida, or Bahamas.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
8. daddyjames
5:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Actually, Levi sounds fine - might be more of a reflection of the poor quality of my speakers :D
Thanks
7. CIweatherlover
5:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi, here in cayman we have to be alert from start to end of huricane season, in case something like Ivan comes our way again.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
6. superpete
5:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi, will send you a 'Tropo Tidbit' from Cayman next week with any local development.Your audio coming thru' loud & clear...as crystal
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
5. kwgirl
5:23 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi. I agree, this is the time of year us Keys dwellers need to keep alert. There are back to back historical bad hurricanes that have hit the Keys and Key West in October. Because my home was flooded in Wilma, it makes me even more nervous.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
4. InTheCone
5:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi, very sorry to hear about your fall, glad you didn't break your noggin!

GFS is still showing Caribbean development next week, have to keep watching.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
3. SunnyDaysFla
5:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks Levi.
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 749
2. NavarreMark
4:40 PM GMT on September 13, 2011
Thanks for the update Levi.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3991

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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