93L could threaten the Yucatan as a storm; African wave may be trouble down the road

By: Levi32 , 4:37 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

Share this Blog
3
+

Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

Find me on Youtube          Find me on Facebook



Invest 93L continues to fire thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean this morning. It actually looks decent given that it is embedded in the "dead zone" of fast trade winds in the central-eastern Caribbean, which generally doesn't allow development of undeveloped systems, and 93L should be no exception here. There is no sign of a surface circulation, and pressures are riding rather high at 1012-1013mb. However, once farther west in the western Caribbean, the trade winds slow down, allowing air to pile up and rise, and thus 93L may have a chance to develop over all of that warm water. The ECMWF for a couple runs in a row now has started to develop 93L just before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula, and having support from this model, which has been conservative all year, means that this should be watched. The Texas ridge should keep 93L on a mainly westward or WNW track towards the Yucatan, and although there is a weakness in the ridge over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, 93L would have to rapidly develop into a strong hurricane to significantly feel the effects of this weakness and move northward. Therefore, a track straight into the Yucatan seems likely here, with a possible double-hit on Mexico when 93L crosses the Bay of Campeche. Interests along the eastern Yucatan coasts of Mexico and Belize should monitor this system to see if it develops in a couple of days.

A new African wave is exhibiting a defined area of low pressure just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and will be our next feature to watch as it journeys westward. Dry Saharan air is wrapping into this feature, but so far all of this dry air has actually been forcing these waves to develop farther west and become more threatening to land areas, due to the fact that storms that wait to develop tend to track farther west before recurving. The models are all hyped up about this system, with even the ECMWF showing its first hurricane of the season passing near the northeastern Caribbean in 6-8 days. It is a long way out to be talking about the potential track of this system if it does indeed develop, but the pattern that we have been discussing for weeks now is taking shape for the peak of the hurricane season, and a storm passing near the NE Caribbean islands could be not only a threat to them, but a threat to the United States as well down the road. We will obviously know more as more time passes, but there is concern about this pattern, and with the MJO bringing upward motion back to the Atlantic right as this peak period begins, we may be in for several threats to the U.S. and Caribbean areas during the coming weeks.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 93L Visible/IR2 Floater:



Invest 93L Track Forecast Models:



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 19 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

19. Levi32
2:36 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
You're so funny Huri....lol :)

Quoting spartankicker:
Great insight here. I'm curious...what program do you use to record your videos and what program do you have that allows you to have a telestrator on the maps?


I record using screencast-o-matic.com, and my drawing tool is an OpenGL-powered annotation tool available in Compiz, a linux window manager. In Windows, the equivalent program that I used to use is called "Sketchit!"
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
18. spartankicker
2:09 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
Great insight here. I'm curious...what program do you use to record your videos and what program do you have that allows you to have a telestrator on the maps?
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
17. hurigo
10:30 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
I wish you could hear my tone of voice and the difference between these two statements that I sincerely offer:

Thanks, Levi (light appreciative tone)

and

Thanks a lot buddy (with a sarcastic flavor as you have that next one point at me)!

Appreciate your work. (back to sincere tone)
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6778
16. SunnyDaysFla
8:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks so much for answering my question. I "get" it! lol
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 758
15. Levi32
8:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
There is an obvious circulation with 93L, my question is "How can you tell that it is mid-level or lower level?"


The trick is knowing what types of clouds you are seeing on visible imagery. SSD has made it easier with their RGB enhancement, which turns most low clouds yellow, while higher clouds remain white. Milky-looking clouds are generally high-level clouds, and anything associated with the tops of strong thunderstorms, such as billowing cumulonimbus, is obviously high-level.

What you're looking for are clouds similar to the low-level cloud streets that you can see in the clear areas of the Caribbean, moving with the trade winds. Low-level clouds like that tend to form small lines or bands, and those will tell us what the winds near the surface are doing. Looking south of 93L, the low-level clouds between the thunderstorms and the coast of northern South America all look to be moving from the east or southeast, and thus no closed surface circulation has developed.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
14. SunnyDaysFla
8:26 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
There is an obvious circulation with 93L, my question is "How can you tell that it is mid-level or lower level?"
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 758
13. BEENE
7:48 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
thanks Levi!
Member Since: June 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
12. flsurfer305
7:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks for the update
Member Since: May 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
11. AllyBama
7:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Tks for the update Levi. I will be watching!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20649
10. AtHomeInTX
7:15 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks Levi. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
8. Levi32
6:06 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Quoting Hawkeyewx:
Levi, you do a superb job of explaining the tropics. It certainly appears things may get interesting in the next couple weeks.


Thanks Hawkeye. That means a bunch coming from you.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
7. CIweatherlover
5:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
thanks Levi, watching 93L here in the Cayman Islands, i always look for your tidbits to know what is going on. you do a superb job.
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
6. Hawkeyewx
5:32 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Levi, you do a superb job of explaining the tropics. It certainly appears things may get interesting in the next couple weeks.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1925
5. SunnyDaysFla
5:15 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks Levi
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 758
4. FtMyersgal
5:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks Levi. Great job explaining what may be in store for the tropics
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
3. BA
5:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
thx levi
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
2. LakeWorthFinn
5:04 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7715
1. InTheCone
4:55 PM GMT on August 16, 2011
Thanks Levi, looks like the lucky streak for the US coast may be coming to an end. Going to be some anxious moments for a lot of people!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990

Viewing: 19 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
89 °F
Scattered Clouds

Levi32's Recent Photos

Recommended Links

Personal Weather Stations

NERRS
Fritz Creek, AK
Elevation: 3 ft
Temperature: 52.0 °F
Dew Point: 51.0 °F
Humidity: 95%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 7:30 AM AKDT on September 05, 2015
Overlooking Peterson Bay
Homer, AK
Elevation: 27 ft
Temperature: 0.0 °F
Dew Point: 0.0 °F
Humidity: 0%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 8:11 AM AKDT on September 05, 2015
RAWS
Homer, AK
Elevation: 854 ft
Temperature: 49.0 °F
Dew Point: 49.0 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 7:54 AM AKDT on September 05, 2015

About Personal Weather Stations