Invest 96L; Tropical Wave east of South America

By: Levi32 , 1:34 PM GMT on July 07, 2011

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Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

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There a couple of areas of interest to mention in the Atlantic today. Just recently at 12z, invest 96L was labeled west of Key West, Florida, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An area of low-level vorticity, or spin, has developed over the last few hours in this area, and convection is developing on its northeast side. Convection will likely remain confined to the north and east of the system due to southwesterly wind shear being imposed on it by an upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will not be moving very much over the next two days. Any surface low pressure that tries to develop will likely remain weak, and move north into the Florida Panhandle without significant development. This system will bring tropical rains farther north into the SE US, which should be welcome to most people.

The other feature worth watching this morning is the tropical wave that was mentioned yesterday east of South America, now near 50W. Vorticity is pronounced with this wave up through the 500mb level, and an ASCAT pass last night revealed a well-defined area of surface convergence and decent cyclonic turning about the wave axis. This wave will likely be running at least partially into northeastern South America, namely Venezuela and Trinidad. It is unclear how much this interaction may disrupt the wave's organization, but any dance with land will only be short-lived, as steering currents should lift this wave into the Caribbean Sea shortly after it encounters the continent. The wave will then travel WNW across the breadth of the Caribbean, posing as a feature to be watched through next week, despite no models showing any tropical development with it. Conditions will be decent once it gets into the western Caribbean, and thus this system will be monitored through its life cycle.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 96L Model Tracks:





Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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9. Levi32
12:24 AM GMT on July 08, 2011
000
ABNT20 KNHC 072351
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26775
8. AtHomeInTX
11:56 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
Thanks Levi. Best I can tell. The 50w wave will go into Mexico according to the models. Whether it develops or not.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
7. BA
11:36 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
+
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
6. BmtJedi
10:56 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
Thanks for the update. Really like the way you explain terminology as you go. Makes it easy to understand.
Member Since: October 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
5. lavinia
2:22 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
Great update Levi! Thank you.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
4. xtremeweathertracker
2:19 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
Thanks Levi Great Post!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
3. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:08 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
Thanks!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34461
1. JRRP
1:46 PM GMT on July 07, 2011
i like it
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6823

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