Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 2:24 PM GMT on June 30, 2011
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No video today. My body rebelled and made me sleep past my alarm.
Tropical Storm Arlene is making landfall as I type south of Tampico, Mexico as a 65mph tropical storm. The overall idea spoken about here starting June 13th that the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean would have to be watched during the last week of June worked out pretty well, and the forecast for Arlene to make landfall near Tampico verified nicely as well. Yesterday I became more receptive to the idea that Arlene could become a minimal hurricane after she became vertically stacked and had a minor center relocation that appeared to give her a bit more time over water. However, her broad center which I had previously cited all day to be the reason she would not attain hurricane status prevailed, and she was unable to strengthen during the final 12 hours before landfall. Arlene will bring flooding rains to Mexico during the next couple days, both good news for the drought and bad news because flooding destroys lives and property.
Looking ahead...The Atlantic will be a busy place during the first week to 10 days of July. The UKMET is being particularly aggressive with the MJO strength in phase 1 over the next two weeks, implying strong upward motion over the tropical Atlantic. The upper-level pattern over the Atlantic is an amplified one right now, consisting of the ridge associated with Arlene over the Gulf of Mexico, a sharp upper trough east of that over the west-central Caribbean, and yet another upper ridge east of that trough over the eastern Caribbean. It is this latter ridge that we will be watching next for mischief developing underneath. A healthy tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is firing convection, aided by the upper divergence east of the upper trough in the Caribbean. It will be following the upper ridge east of this trough for the next 4-6 days, and we may have to watch this wave carefully in the NW Caribbean for possible mischief during that period early next week. Of note is that if anything were to develop from this wave, with the Texas ridge shifting west next week, any system in the NW Caribbean would move up into the central Gulf of Mexico, east of where Arlene went.
We shall see what happens!
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