Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 pretty much over; Tropical focus shifts elsewhere

By: Levi32 , 5:48 PM GMT on November 17, 2010

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2010 is pretty much over now, with the official end only a couple weeks away. We had an area to watch in the western Caribbean but conditions are too dry right now to allow development. Upward motion will be returning to the central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean over the next couple of weeks, but at this point any further developments are more unlikely than likely.

My forecast for this year of 18 named storms verified pretty well, as we ended with 19. What did not turn out was the forecasted impact on the United States, which ended up lower than almost every forecast out there. We had the congregation of tracks on either side of where the focus seemed most likely to be, and it is a statistical miracle that the U.S. saw so little impact in a season this active. The main areas that got slammed were Bermuda and Central America, which definitely had the worst of this season.

In terms of the tropics, our focus will now have to shift down to the southern hemisphere during their summer season. Looking at SSTs around the globe, the main focus of heat available for redistribution via tropical cyclones is now being found in the vicinity of Australia and south of the Maritime Continent. The ECMWF forecast for January-February-March follows the logical approach and shows very low sea-level pressures and high precipitation around Australia during their tropical season, and although the south Pacific and Indian Ocean seasons are not typically that active compared to the rest of the ocean basins, Australia may have to watch for tropical impacts this year.

We also have a lot of winter to look forward to here in the northern hemisphere, and I may touch on that a few times as things unfold up here.

On another note, for any who are interested in reading it, I am posting a pdf of my first research paper that I have written for my English class here at UAF. My teacher allowed me to pursue whatever subject I desired, and so naturally I chose Meteorology. I have a great English teacher, but unfortunately she's not a Meteorologist, and thus I am afraid cannot give me a complete and brutally honest review of my paper from a content standpoint. I thought it would help me to submit it to any of you weather geeks like me here at WU who would like to read it and share their thoughts on how I could improve it, sort of like peer-review I guess. Being my first-ever research paper, it is sure to have flaws regarding typical Meteorology papers that my English teacher is likely to miss. I would appreciate any advice and feedback on how I could make my research papers better, as it is a skill I certainly need to have.

Here is the link:

The Effects of Meridional Sea Surface Temperature Gradients on the Atlantic Hurricane Season

We shall see what happens!

Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:

200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):

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1. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:26 PM GMT on November 17, 2010
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34714

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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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