Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.
By: Levi32 , 4:22 PM GMT on May 07, 2006
Ok everyone, WAKE UP! Hurricane season is much closer than I expected, and my guess for Alberto on May 15 might actually turn out to be right. I have been blind this past week! There are rapid changes occurring in the tropics that I have almost completely ignored (I am sure you all saw them but if not then stay with me). Have you all noticed the ITCZ lately?? My gosh it has gotten much stronger and convection is firing all across the Pacific and Atlantic. Also it has been sneaking north over South America right under our noses! Look at the satellite. There is a blob of convection over the extreme SW Caribbean. That means the ITCZ is finally starting to move north!
Here’s the deal, I have been monitoring the GFS long range shear forecasts (144-384 hours). I have noticed the last two days that the GFS is forecasting light shear to overtake much of the Caribbean, the western Atlantic, and at times the gulf. Due to the data I have seen, I am forecasting a complete failure of the sub-tropical westerlies within a week. After that, the GFS has tropical waves and bursts of convection moving into Puerto Rico and all of the Caribbean. Last night the GFS forecasted a tropical storm near Jamaica at 240 hours. Today the GFS still forecasts tropical waves, lows, and possible depressions moving through the Caribbean. This mornings run has a TD moving through the Caribbean, crossing Cuba, and into the Bahamas in two weeks.
ALL OF THIS IS ONLY 10 DAYS AWAY! It has been sneaking up on us. The shear will break, the ITCZ will come north, and Alberto will be on the doorstep. This is serious here. The shear is supposed to completely collapse from the Carolinas to South America. Trust me things are going to start rapidly changing very soon. We will see what happens. My normal links and images are below:
AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast
Tropical Forecast Models for the Atlantic (including shear forecasts out to 6 days)
SSD Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other charts.
Coolwx Buoy Data
Penn State Atlantic Tropical Page
Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products
CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products
CIMSS Atlantic Satellite Analysis
NASA Interactive Satellite
GOES Tropical Satellite Sectors (has all regions, satellite enhancements, and 4-5 more floater satellites that are never used on other sites)
RTOFS SST Analysis and Forecasts for the Atlantic
This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:
This is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)Index:
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MesoWest NERRS METEOROLOGICAL SITE AT KAC AK US
Fritz Creek, AK
|Dew Point:||51.0 °F|
|Wind:||4.0 mph from the NNE|
|Wind Gust:||6.0 mph|
Updated: 6:30 AM AKDT on August 27, 2014
Overlooking Peterson Bay
|Dew Point:||0.0 °F|
|Wind Gust:||0.0 mph|
Updated: 6:38 AM AKDT on August 27, 2014
RAWS HOMER AK US
|Dew Point:||46.0 °F|
|Wind:||4.0 mph from the NW|
|Wind Gust:||5.0 mph|
Updated: 5:54 AM AKDT on August 27, 2014