Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Tomas to threaten Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba as at least a Cat 2, possibly a major

Posted by: Levi32, 4:26 PM GMT on November 02, 2010

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.

Tomas is making his comeback now north of Columbia as convection is firing like crazy near the center, and pressures are likely lowering healthily in the area right now. As I type the recon is flying in and will see how Tomas is doing. One can see how the area of convection south of Jamaica has has been an amazing forecast helper for the last couple days, as it has perpetually indicated the boundary where the fast trade wind flow has been converging, and thus indicating how Tomas was going to make a roaring comeback. As Tomas has come farther west the flow has become progressively more convergent in the path of the storm as opposed to divergent, which is what killed it with sinking air a couple days ago. Now the storm is roaring back to life and this will be a hurricane again by Thursday morning.

The convection south of Jamaica is also indicating to us where the periphery of the high is setting up and exactly where Tomas is going to go. From this we can surmise that Tomas will continue to travel west or WNW until he is at Jamaica's longitude, and then slow down and make an abrupt turn to the NNE or NE, perhaps clipping or hitting eastern Jamaica and then threatening eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the SE Bahamas. The current NHC forecast and model consensus has a direct hit on Haiti, which would be disastrous, but there is some wiggle room for adjustments farther west. These will be worked out with time, but the small triangular region bounded by extreme eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti is definitely going to see this storm blast through.

Rapid feedback as Tomas nears landfall could be a really big problem, as the pattern will be evolving over the next couple of days to favor massive pressure falls in the Caribbean as Tomas gets pulled northward and the jetstream becomes strongly kinked. The intensification of this storm as it comes ashore could truly be impressive and very scary. A Cat 2 hurricane is likely, and a major hurricane is very much on the table here if things fall into place. As I have said the past couple days, just because Tomas fell apart into a naked swirl doesn't mean folks should let their guard down in the northern Caribbean. This storm is a very big deal, and hopefully residents of Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas are prepared for a strong hurricane coming ashore on Friday.

We shall see what happens!

Tropical Storm Tomas Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Tropical Storm Tomas Track Models:

Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):

Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:

200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):

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1. SunnyDaysFla 4:37 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Thank you Levi.

2. Hoff511 4:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Thanks Levi! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

3. InTheCone 4:40 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Thanks Levi, possibly the last storm of the season and it's been bad and looks to even get worse. Quite a sad story.... Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

4. Levi32 4:49 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Recon looks to be finding a broad, loose system with weak winds and higher pressures, which is to be expected after almost no convection for nearly 48 hours. Tomas has a full 36-48 hours to reorganize and come back before the real and rapid strengthening is likely to begin. Thursday morning should see this a hurricane that is beginning to take off and deepen. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

5. serialteg 4:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
pretty good! Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

6. leddyed 5:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Levi, what will the merging of those troughs mean for the SE CONUS? Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 75

7. Levi32 5:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Quoting leddyed: Levi, what will the merging of those troughs mean for the SE CONUS? Likely some stormy weather on Wednesday and Thursday, moving offshore by Friday. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

8. hydrus 9:48 PM GMT on November 02, 2010
Thank you for the update. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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