Danielle recurves; Earl most likely to follow; Fiona could be more ogre than princess

By: Levi32 , 4:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2010

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If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



I really apologize for the length of the video...I had no idea I had talked for 11 minutes when I was done. I guess I'm just really trying to have some fun in the last couple days before I have to leave and then may not have the time to put as much depth into these discussions, if I can continue doing them at all. Tomorrow will be my last one for an unknown period of time.

Danielle became a major hurricane overnight and the NHC gave her Cat 4 status when her eye cleared out fully and the storm took on a classic look. Minimal Cat 4 is likely as far as she will be able to go. Already dry air entrainment which is still plaguing her is causing the eye to fill up with clouds again and the core is looking less healthy. Cat 5 is pretty much unattainable in this situation, and anything above her current intensity seems unlikely. She has likely peaked now. Danielle is currently undergoing a WNW jog today as the ridge passes by to her north while she waits for the 2nd trough to fully recurve her. This should take place east of Bermuda but she could still get close enough to affect them with strong winds and heavy rain, so they should monitor her progress for potential impacts.

Behind Danielle we find Earl, still chugging westward with no change in intensity. The northern Antilles Islands will have to monitor Earl to see how close he gets to them when he passes, but it will likely be north of the islands, not over them. Earl has the potential to get farther west than Danielle and cause more worry to people on the US east coast, but I think he is likely to follow Danielle out to sea, but a closer call than she was. Bermuda may need to watch Earl even more vigilantly than Danielle. The latest ECMWF run takes Earl directly over the island in 8 days.

Behind Earl we find the tropical wave that is likely to eventually become Fiona, currently passing south of the Cape Verde Islands. This one has the potential to come farther south and west than both Danielle and Earl, and that seems to be a pattern with each successive storm coming farther south and west. GFS nonsense has Fiona catching up to Earl and merging with him, but she will instead keep a neat distance from Earl just like he did from Danielle. Hurricanes have a certain respect for each other's personal space.

The 0z ECMWF from last night is one of the scariest runs you will ever see on that model, taking Fiona as a 921mb hurricane WNW towards Florida at Day 10. This is just one run and the model will likely flop around, but the pattern for this kind of a thing makes some sense when you look at the longwave pattern across North America. The cold PDO has been setting up the ridge south of the Aleutians with the trough over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. This forces height rises over southeast Canada and the northeast US. The result on this ECMWF run is that the trough recurving Earl encounters more resistance and the stronger jet forces the trough to lift out, allowing the ridge to build in farther north and direct Fiona west towards the United States.

One can also notice how the models that show this solution (ECMWF, CMC), are simply replacing the homegrown mischief that they were previously hinting at in the SW Atlantic Basin with a Cape Verde storm getting drawn into the pattern. No matter what happens the SW Atlantic basin is primed for a tropical cyclone to be in the area sometime during the first week of September. If the hurricane train keeps recurving out to sea to the east then we will have to watch for something spawning up in close to home, but we could just as easily get one of the long-track storms stuck underneath the ridge and take advantage of the pattern, replacing our homegrown concerns with something much more serious. Fiona has the potential to be a real bad ogre, and not a beautiful princess. Right now everything is still a long way out and the situation will continue to be monitored.

We shall see what happens!

Hurricane Danielle Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Hurricane Danielle Track Models:



Tropical Storm Earl Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Tropical Storm Earl Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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67. atmosweather
3:31 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
97L is very close to being a full fledged tropical depression...plenty of reliable 25-30kt vectors and a borderline closed circulation. Looks pretty organized on IR imagery too.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
66. atmosweather
3:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
The extremely fast low level flow steering Earl is really putting the northern Antilles on edge right now. Although the one saving grace is that combining the strong easterlies with some NE-erly shear is halting any significant development. If Earl was moving slower, he would surely have reformed his LLC under the SW-ern convection by now.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
65. Levi32
2:07 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Thanks truecajun :)

Quoting shoreacres:
Just stopping by to catch your update - as always, very well done.

I know you're going to enjoy college.Lots of room there to spread your wings.

By the way - you might get a grin out of this. Since I don't keep a drawful of links, I'll sometimes google what I want. When I googled "danielle visible loop" tonight, the page at the top of the google rankings was yours ;-)


Thanks Shore :) Lol, well, I did grin =)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
64. shoreacres
1:57 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Just stopping by to catch your update - as always, very well done.

I know you're going to enjoy college.Lots of room there to spread your wings.

By the way - you might get a grin out of this. Since I don't keep a drawful of links, I'll sometimes google what I want. When I googled "danielle visible loop" tonight, the page at the top of the google rankings was yours ;-)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
63. truecajun
1:35 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Good luck in school, Levi! Keep up the good work and stay focused. Thanks for being such a positive influence on the blog. Take care!
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
62. Levi32
1:28 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
we will miss you, Levi. It's been awesome watching you grow up, and seeing what a great young man, with manners and respect, that you've become. I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say we hope you keep us up to date on your college progress. Never ever give up your dream.


Well thank you. I'll miss you guys too. I will certainly be relating my activities from time to time, especially any having to do with the Atmospheric Science Department :) That's the closest thing we have in Alaska to a Meteorological facility. Not quite the same thing but it's something.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
61. aquak9
1:25 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
we will miss you, Levi. It's been awesome watching you grow up, and seeing what a great young man, with manners and respect, that you've become. I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say we hope you keep us up to date on your college progress. Never ever give up your dream.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25905
60. Levi32
1:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
Lol, no tomorrow is my last video

could you possibly make it a little LESS apocalyptic?


Lol, well, I shall try.

I hopefully will be back making them after a few days break...I'll need time to get over the overwhelming ordeal of moving up there and getting used to being in college, and then IF I have time in my schedule I'll try to do morning updates again.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
59. aquak9
1:17 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Lol, no tomorrow is my last video

could you possibly make it a little LESS apocalyptic?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25905
58. Levi32
1:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
(eyes bugging out)

LEVI!!! this is your last video?? and you're leaving THAT at my doorstep? Do you know where I live??? Like, 80 miles west of that 921 mb cane the ECMWF is trying to conjure up!!

I wish you the very very best in school. :)


Thanks Aqua :)

Lol, no tomorrow is my last video (if I wake up on time to make one!)

Hopefully I can still make them in the mornings at college, but I'll have to stop for a few days while I go through the headache of moving and getting overwhelmed for the first while up there.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
57. Tazmanian
1:11 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
T # went from too weak too 1.5 with 97L

27/2345 UTC 12.7N 27.0W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
56. Tazmanian
1:10 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


That was my first thought but I have no friend requests or messages on FB at the moment.



you sould down lode window live beat 2 if you are runing the right window it wont take window XP olny window vista or window 7 it like haveing facbook right there on window live its so cool


all so am still following dr m blog and evere ones commets with my Tazmanian5 name but cant post in tell my 11hrs banned is up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
55. aquak9
1:07 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
(eyes bugging out)

LEVI!!! this is your last video?? and you're leaving THAT at my doorstep? Do you know where I live??? Like, 80 miles west of that 921 mb cane the ECMWF is trying to conjure up!!

I wish you the very very best in school. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25905
54. Levi32
1:03 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I think he means on Facebook, which he has a link to on his blog.


That was my first thought but I have no friend requests or messages on FB at the moment.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
52. Levi32
12:53 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
18z GFDL ramps Earl up to a strong Category 4 monster while coming perilously close to the northern Antilles.


That's actually not a bad track (forecast-wise). It even incorporates a temporary WSW drift before reaching the islands.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
51. Levi32
12:52 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
Levi32 plzs hit accepted on your invitation thanks


What invitation?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
50. atmosweather
12:46 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
18z GFDL ramps Earl up to a strong Category 4 monster while coming perilously close to the northern Antilles.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
49. Tazmanian
12:40 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Levi32 plzs hit accepted on your invitation thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
48. Tazmanian
12:36 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
atmosweather plz hit accepted on you invitation
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
47. Levi32
12:32 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
Appears as if Danielle has finished strengthening...looks like a second eyewall is beginning to form.


It does indeed....she probably reached her peak this morning when the sun was coming up at her location.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
46. Tazmanian
12:30 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
Appears as if Danielle has finished strengthening...looks like a second eyewall is beginning to form.



helloo
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
45. Tazmanian
12:29 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
hello all
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44. atmosweather
12:24 AM GMT on August 28, 2010
Appears as if Danielle has finished strengthening...looks like a second eyewall is beginning to form.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
43. Levi32
11:30 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
The only realistic example is one where you get a lot of waves to develop into hurricanes that take nearly the same track, and in that scenario you can get some of the storms behind tracking over SSTs that have been cooled by the preceding hurricanes, therefore limiting the intensity of the storms that follow right behind.

That could currently be the case, seeing how they appear to be talking the same (or almost the same) track. Of course, that also means that succeeding storms could be weaker and less likely to recurve, and the water further west is still warm.


Also, that radar is one of the best examples of a gust front that I have seen, looks like there might have been a damaging downburst with that, although I have seen other impressive examples that didn't cause wind damage.


Might be true, though Danielle was pretty weak when she was in Earl's location, and moving too fast to affect the SSTs greatly. Microwave imagery doesn't show much of a wake with Danielle in the earlier stages of her life, but one will show up farther north over the region where she was a major hurricane.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
41. atmosweather
10:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Whoa! That radar loop is cool!!

Ya....you can see that was what I found most important about your post...lol.


A picture is worth 1,000 words LOL!

The developing cold PDO phase is really troubling considering this active Cape Verde wave train...one of these is not going to be a fish storm and is going to sit underneath the ridge and make it's way towards the U.S. Also, the NAO is expected to turn more towards the positive phase once we reach the second week of September which is going to help increase the threat. And with a very favorable upper level pattern set up across most of the MDR, we're really looking at a scary couple of weeks.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
40. Becca36
10:54 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Thanks again Levi. I'm so happy for you that you are heading off to school. On a selfish note, I'm sure I will suffer from "Tropical Tidbit" withdrawal!
Member Since: June 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
39. Levi32
10:44 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Hoff511:
Thanks Levi! Great update as always. I wish you the best of luck at school and hope we hear from you at least time to time. Your knowledge and analysis of tropical weather is spot on. I don't think you will have any problem with physics, but with your passion the world needs you as a MET. Come on, once YOU work for the NHC none of the bloggers will be able to bash them anymore.
One last thought, what do you think of the idea that with the current conditions (SSTs, negative NAO, MJO, etc.) that too many storms would spin up at once and cancel each other out with shear, competition for moisture, etc.?
Reverse Fujiwhara?


Thanks Hoff :)

Lol, so you're asking if conditions can be "too perfect"? Well no not really, because there is a limit to how many storms the Atlantic can spawn up at the same time. The only way the Atlantic can get 3-4-5 storms spinning at the same time in close proximity is through tropical waves, developing one after another coming off Africa.

Now I'm sure there is a law of fluid dynamics somewhere that will tell you this, but there is a limit to how close tropical waves can be to each other in succession, and thus you can't really get enough waves to come off fast enough that they all try to develop and end up hindering each other from developing at all.

The only realistic example is one where you get a lot of waves to develop into hurricanes that take nearly the same track, and in that scenario you can get some of the storms behind tracking over SSTs that have been cooled by the preceding hurricanes, therefore limiting the intensity of the storms that follow right behind.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
38. Levi32
10:32 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
Good afternoon Levi!

I hope you have a safe trip up to school! I know that everyone here will truly appreciate your blog updates no matter how frequently you'll be able to do them. Concentrate on your studies first and foremost!

Some more random thoughts:

1) My Danielle intensity forecast was ruthlessly and unceremoniously BUSTED...LOL! I really didn't think she would become a major hurricane and instead she peaks at 115 kts. You could see last night how she really mixed out the dry air and capitalized on the improved outflow.

2) The strength of Danielle has been a huge boost to the likelihood of Earl recurving along the almost exact same track, maybe slightly further W. Bermuda looks to be the only land area in danger once again.

3) I'm not sure I've ever seen this before...and I have no words for it...really ECMWF? LOL!

4) I'm not sure I ever want to see this without a bed pan next to me.

5) Check out the "wave of radiation" picked up on my radar this afternoon LOL!...



Whoa! That radar loop is cool!!

Ya....you can see that was what I found most important about your post...lol.

Lol yes Danielle has found a good ventilated area after she stopped heading right towards the Bermuda High where the confluent zone was aloft. She is probably peaking today though and won't be more than a low-mid Cat 4.

Yes ECMWF is scary for sure....even the 12z run is bad news for the eastern seaboard despite the position farther north. The runs will likely swing back and forth until the ECMWF locks on which may not happen until Fiona is actually a storm. The pattern says look out, so we will be watching for that threat.

Thanks Rich, I'll be trying my best. Hopefully I can squeeze in an hour every morning early to write an update of some kind. I will go insane if I can't track the tropics during the peak of the season, especially this one!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
37. Hoff511
10:28 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Thanks Levi! Great update as always. I wish you the best of luck at school and hope we hear from you at least time to time. Your knowledge and analysis of tropical weather is spot on. I don't think you will have any problem with physics, but with your passion the world needs you as a MET. Come on, once YOU work for the NHC none of the bloggers will be able to bash them anymore.
One last thought, what do you think of the idea that with the current conditions (SSTs, negative NAO, MJO, etc.) that too many storms would spin up at once and cancel each other out with shear, competition for moisture, etc.?
Reverse Fujiwhara?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
36. atmosweather
10:15 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Good afternoon Levi!

I hope you have a safe trip up to school! I know that everyone here will truly appreciate your blog updates no matter how frequently you'll be able to do them. Concentrate on your studies first and foremost!

Some more random thoughts:

1) My Danielle intensity forecast was ruthlessly and unceremoniously BUSTED...LOL! I really didn't think she would become a major hurricane and instead she peaks at 115 kts. You could see last night how she really mixed out the dry air and capitalized on the improved outflow.

2) The strength of Danielle has been a huge boost to the likelihood of Earl recurving along the almost exact same track, maybe slightly further W. Bermuda looks to be the only land area in danger once again.

3) I'm not sure I've ever seen this before...and I have no words for it...really ECMWF? LOL!

4) I'm not sure I ever want to see this without a bed pan next to me.

5) Check out the "wave of radiation" picked up on my radar this afternoon LOL!...

Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
35. Tazmanian
10:10 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
now this is funny



look what they banned me for


Banned
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WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Take a break.

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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
34. ryang1994
9:59 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


As far as I know, no, which I believe is why they didn't issue a warning for the island.


Pretty logical if you ask me...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
33. MikeEMA
9:56 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Nice Job and as everyone else has said school comes first, ever considered a officer position on the US AIR FORCE(ROTC pays for college). They are the best out of all of the military and have a lot of scholarship money especially for someone with your natural talent. My son will finish his 20 year term and has loved every minute of it(he is a Firefighter like his dad). No Im not a recruiter (old Navy Frog) but I do like to see bright young folks like yourself get ahead. I would love to see where your resources for this data and your presentations comes from. I am a rank amateur compared to someone like you but am always willing to learn. We are here in Savannah Ga and I'm the Emergency Manager for a smaller city west of Savannah. Your Excellent presentation sparked my interest. Thanks GREAT JOB.
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
32. HarryMc
9:55 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Just a quick note regarding school: I also started in physics for about 2 years; learned enough to realize what I really like was engineering and ended up in chemical engineering of all things. Never really worked as a chemical engineer but they always made me do management stuff. Went back to school and got another degree in management but never really liked being VP with biggies; so went back to school and now trying to practice politics. Either I never figured out exactly what I want to do after I grow up (better figure that out soon... already AARP member) or you never quit learning.

I prefer to think of it as never learning enough. You'll probably do that too. Just following you for a while, you have the mind set to do anything and I do mean anything. Just keep following what you want, not what others tell you!

Looking forward to long time following.

Harry
Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 339
31. Levi32
9:27 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting ryang1994:


Oh, a lot of systems die that way eh? Okay...That you know of, does the island that he passed just south of last night have any people on it?


As far as I know, no, which I believe is why they didn't issue a warning for the island.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
30. ryang1994
9:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Thoughts on Frank? He's dead, the way a lot of east Pacific systems die.


Oh, a lot of systems die that way eh? Okay...That you know of, does the island that he passed just south of last night have any people on it?
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29. Levi32
8:53 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Thanks originalLT and Spathy :)

908mb on a global model....didn't think I'd be seeing that this year:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
27. Levi32
8:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting ryang1994:
Hey Levi! =)

I just want to thank you for all your updates this season! =) They have really taught me a lot, and therefore I have not had to ask as many stupid questions as time has progressed! For that, I am thankful! I wish you the BEST of luck in College - and keep us updated on how you are keeping (only if you are doing well ;) lol). I hope you will have more time in the future for more videos/write-ups (even if you just have time for a write-up and not a video...), because I will miss them, A LOT - it'll feel like there is a piece of my life missing now without videos...but that's okay - I bear thru it! =P School is more important however, not the WU blogs...

QUESTION TODAY (=P) :

Do tropical waves ever, when they cross into Central America, cross into the Pacific Basin? If so, do they ever go all the way across the Pacific and end up in the WPAC and spawn a typhoon?

ON A SIDE NOTE:

Poor, poor Frank - looking terrible...Thoughts on this guy, if any? >>>>>>



Thanks Again - and have an awesome day! =)


Thanks :)

Tropical waves do cross into the eastern Pacific all the time and can be at least partially responsible for a good number of the storms that develop in the east Pacific each season. As they travel across the Pacific it becomes harder for tropical waves to remain defined and actually retain their distinctness as tropical waves, but sometimes they will spawn something in the central Pacific that then travels west and gets relabeled a typhoon when it crosses the date-line. You won't see tropical waves analyzed on surface maps in the western Pacific, and it's rare to see them analyzed in the central Pacific either.

Thoughts on Frank? He's dead, the way a lot of east Pacific systems die.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
26. ryang1994
8:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Hey Levi! =)

I just want to thank you for all your updates this season! =) They have really taught me a lot, and therefore I have not had to ask as many stupid questions as time has progressed! For that, I am thankful! I wish you the BEST of luck in College - and keep us updated on how you are keeping (only if you are doing well ;) lol). I hope you will have more time in the future for more videos/write-ups (even if you just have time for a write-up and not a video...), because I will miss them, A LOT - it'll feel like there is a piece of my life missing now without videos...but that's okay - I bear thru it! =P School is more important however, not the WU blogs...

QUESTION TODAY (=P) :

Do tropical waves ever, when they cross into Central America, cross into the Pacific Basin? If so, do they ever go all the way across the Pacific and end up in the WPAC and spawn a typhoon?

ON A SIDE NOTE:

Poor, poor Frank - looking terrible...Thoughts on this guy, if any? >>>>>>



Thanks Again - and have an awesome day! =)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
25. originalLT
7:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Good luck in college, I know freshmen year is exciting and a little scary at the same time. I had to kids who went thru that not long ago. I still can't get over how much you know, and how much you enjoy tropical weather, living way up in Alaska! One item of "Fatherly" advice. When you are away at school, TIME MANAGEMENT is so important, there are so many distractions, just get your work done before play. I'm sure you will! Again, good luck.
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24. Eugeniopr
7:40 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Thank you, just learning
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23. immaturehurjunkie
7:37 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Off topic but I love your videos! They are very informative :)
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22. Levi32
7:34 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting Eugeniopr:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


Levi:

In your opinion, where is the center?


45.1W, 15.8N, approximately.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
21. Eugeniopr
7:32 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


Levi:

In your opinion, where is the center?
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20. wyhan557
7:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
great update thanks alot
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19. wxgeek723
7:24 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Great explanation as always Levi. I hope you can linger a while and watch this crazy season unfold. My take on the situation? Danielle is a fully mature middle-aged storm nearing the elderly home, Earl is a preteen, 97L is a new birth who's name has yet to be given, and the basin is pregnant with another, lol. 2010 seems similar to 1998, where activity really took off in September.





Four simultaneous 'canes on 9/26/98. Simply amazing. Let's hope we don't repeat that. Seeing the model runs and what they do to 97L is really just frightening.

Anyway, good luck at college! I think you made a great choice to take physics, since meteorology is physics applied to the atmosphere.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3573
18. Levi32
7:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
Levi,
I was wondering when you were leaving for school.. so this Sunday huh?

Your studies are your first concern but hope you get to come back to us every chance you get,
especially when things are really getting hot in the tropics!

another great update. Looking forward to tomorrow's.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Hi Levi, new to your blog. Wish I had found it earlier. You do an outstanding job with your presentations. I will miss hearing from you, but schooling comes first. My very best to you and yours, I'm sure you have a very bright future. Wish us luck here in East Central Florida, Thank you!!!


Thank you guys =)

Quoting StAugSurf:
Thanks for the update. I am sure most of us are going to miss your updates. Best of luck in college. What thoughts do you have on a major? I realize that it's still a little early and things can change. I live in St Augustine. Yikes.


They do not have Meteorology in Alaska, sadly. They have a post-graduate atmospheric sciences department in Fairbanks but it's not quite the same thing, and of course it's post-graduate. Therefore I am being forced to major in something else that is related to Meteorology, and my best choice is Physics. I am not the best math wiz in the world so I don't know if I can pull it off, but it's what I have to do and then see where things go from there. Perhaps I can transfer to a Met school in the lower 48 later on in life.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
17. StAugSurf
7:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2010
Thanks for the update. I am sure most of us are going to miss your updates. Best of luck in college. What thoughts do you have on a major? I realize that it's still a little early and things can change. I live in St Augustine. Yikes.
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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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MesoWest NERRS METEOROLOGICAL SITE AT KAC AK US
Fritz Creek, AK
Elevation: 32 ft
Temperature: 55.0 °F
Dew Point: 52.0 °F
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 1:30 AM AKDT on August 27, 2014
Overlooking Peterson Bay
Homer, AK
Elevation: 27 ft
Temperature: 158.0 °F
Dew Point: 0.0 °F
Humidity: 0%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 2:08 AM AKDT on August 27, 2014
RAWS HOMER AK US
Homer, AK
Elevation: 854 ft
Temperature: 51.0 °F
Dew Point: 48.0 °F
Humidity: 90%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 1:54 AM AKDT on August 27, 2014

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