A quiet rest of the week in the tropics; Next week may heat up again

By: Levi32 , 3:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2010

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If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



The tropics are fairly quiet today. Tropical Depression #5, which should still be classified as such, is soaking the New Orleans area as it slowly moves inland and intensifies, and it will continue to tighten on its way inland before it gets entirely cutoff from the moisture supply. The GFS is still playing around with this meandering it around the southern states and then bringing it back over the northern gulf early next week, feeding it back under a more favorable upper pattern and over the hot coastal waters. No other models show this, but the GFS has been very consistent, so we'll have to watch for such a thing to occur. Otherwise, no apparent threats for development are showing themselves for the rest of this week and into early next week.

By late next week we may have to watch for Cape Verde development off of Africa as the GFS ensembles are still adamant about our first long-track hurricane forming and tracking across the basin. The operational runs are now picking up on this as well and in the high-resolution front portion of the run. If this solution becomes consistent and marches down the timeline in a realistic manner then we will have to take this development threat seriously. Looking way down the road this has great potential to threaten the US east coast with the ridge setting up over the northeast US, but it is still a long way off and such a storm, if it tracks too far north, could still recurve. With nothing else to watch there is no harm in putting it out there. The pattern is yelling and screaming to watch underneath the ridge in 2 weeks, and regardless of what the model says, I will be looking to see if there is something sitting under there east of the United States during the final week of August.

We shall see what happens!


Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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31. Levi32
2:05 AM GMT on August 14, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
Good afternoon Levi!

I hope that calc test went well! Fantastic update once again. Today's 12z GFS continues to show both the remnant low of TD 5 organizing quickly off the N-ern GOM coast as well as the CV hurricane...this is 11 runs in a row now or close to that. More importantly, both the ECMWF and CMC are on board with both of these potential systems. Looking at the upper air pattern for next week, I can see why! I believe we will be watching at least 1 named storm by this time next week as the teeth of the 2010 hurricane season begins to show itself.

And of course, today is Friday the 13th...6 years ago, also on Friday 13th, Hurricane Charley devastated SW and central FL. I cannot remember going through the eye of Andrew at 4 years old...so if Charley is the only experience with an eyewall of a major hurricane in my life...it couldn't have been any crazier! It continues to amaze me that after watching the devastation of 2005 and 2008, Charley remains the strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. since Andrew.

Hope to talk with ya soon!


Yup Rich....looks like we'll get some action soon. Ya Charley was quite something....hopefully we don't get a landfall that bad this year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
30. atmosweather
9:02 PM GMT on August 13, 2010
Good afternoon Levi!

I hope that calc test went well! Fantastic update once again. Today's 12z GFS continues to show both the remnant low of TD 5 organizing quickly off the N-ern GOM coast as well as the CV hurricane...this is 11 runs in a row now or close to that. More importantly, both the ECMWF and CMC are on board with both of these potential systems. Looking at the upper air pattern for next week, I can see why! I believe we will be watching at least 1 named storm by this time next week as the teeth of the 2010 hurricane season begins to show itself.

And of course, today is Friday the 13th...6 years ago, also on Friday 13th, Hurricane Charley devastated SW and central FL. I cannot remember going through the eye of Andrew at 4 years old...so if Charley is the only experience with an eyewall of a major hurricane in my life...it couldn't have been any crazier! It continues to amaze me that after watching the devastation of 2005 and 2008, Charley remains the strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. since Andrew.

Hope to talk with ya soon!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
29. Tazmanian
8:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2010
the West Atlantic is shear free



when was the last time you saw this

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
28. seflagamma
3:45 PM GMT on August 13, 2010
Hello Levi,

Well I am happy the predicted busy season is a little delayed.
Since early this year when we made airline reservations for Boston on Aug 20th
I feared this busy season would make this trip impossible.
Now we leave a week from today and nothing is out there.

And hope nothing forms until we return Aug 24th.
I would hate not being home with my dog and local kids if a storm was coming.

So please let us hope we remain storm free until end of August!

Thanks for your great information and answers to our questions!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
27. CoopsWife
3:18 PM GMT on August 13, 2010
^
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
26. Becca36
2:14 AM GMT on August 13, 2010
Thank you Levi, I always look forward to your updates!
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25. ho77yw00d
12:08 AM GMT on August 13, 2010
ahhh that makes sense thank you so much for helping me learn!!
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
24. Levi32
10:46 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting ho77yw00d:
Oh and I will say a lot of years it seems like hurricanes and bad storms always come near or around my bithday (end of August) I will not give the date since it is not a good one, but I noticed that the end of August through september is when we get more in the tropics(Florida especially) Levi do you think that this is the case this year? That we will get more activity end of August thru end of September, I am just having this feeling that mother nature has not even got started yet and we better enjoy all this little stuff because all it takes is one and we have a long time to go still in hurricane season! Also you pointed out what makes storms curve or effect the east coast but what makes them go into the GOM and affect FLA from the west coast or even NOLA for that matter? just curious and sorry for the long post and questions but you teach me a lot and I wont know unless I ask lol


Thanks Levi :)


Never feel bad for asking questions :)

Yes it usually gets more active after August 15th through September every year because that is the climatological peak and we get the most storms during that time.

Storms usually hit the west coast of Florida at the beginning and end of the season, when troughs are able to dig farther south and recurve systems coming through the Caribbean. A trough digging into the Great Plains or the Mississippi Valley will usually do the trick and curve storms up into the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
23. wyhan557
10:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Another great update
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
22. ho77yw00d
9:46 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Oh and I will say a lot of years it seems like hurricanes and bad storms always come near or around my bithday (end of August) I will not give the date since it is not a good one, but I noticed that the end of August through september is when we get more in the tropics(Florida especially) Levi do you think that this is the case this year? That we will get more activity end of August thru end of September, I am just having this feeling that mother nature has not even got started yet and we better enjoy all this little stuff because all it takes is one and we have a long time to go still in hurricane season! Also you pointed out what makes storms curve or effect the east coast but what makes them go into the GOM and affect FLA from the west coast or even NOLA for that matter? just curious and sorry for the long post and questions but you teach me a lot and I wont know unless I ask lol


Thanks Levi :)
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
21. ho77yw00d
9:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
20. psuweathernewbie
8:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Thanks Levi.
19. Levi32
6:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
"The Wild Bunch" of 2005 is still around... You'll never hear the end of this... lmao

(Just goofin' around, feel free to delete 16.)


No kidding...! Lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
18. Levi32
6:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Blog Tidbits From The Tropics:

Quoting Levi: "...forecasters in here are coming out of the closet right now."

Quoting weatherguy03: "...I love Levi."

Just quoting...


LOL!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
17. LakeWorthFinn
6:10 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
"The Wild Bunch" of 2005 is still around... You'll never hear the end of this... lmao

(Just goofin' around, feel free to delete 16.)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
16. LakeWorthFinn
6:09 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Blog Tidbits From The Tropics:

Quoting Levi: "...forecasters in here are coming out of the closet right now."

Quoting weatherguy03: "...I love Levi."

Just quoting...
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
15. Hoff511
5:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Thanks Levi! Great analysis as always.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
14. Levi32
5:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Nice job Levi, great blog. What do you see from the wave nearing 10W and 15N over western Africa? Emerges in two days time and has a vigorous 850mb vorticity maximum which is symmetrical a sign that there is a surface low strengthening and indeed there is one on visible satellite imagery. This circulation will reach 20W within two days time and I think some quick development is possible. StormW thinks this will recurve given that latitude it is at. I would tend to agree, but this could still become Danielle given the presence of an upper level anticyclone present.


Yeah it's nice-looking but it's getting sucked northwest into the African monsoon low and will be exiting the coast way too far north to develop. It will be embedded in dry air and be over cold SSTs.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
13. psuweathernewbie
5:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Nice job Levi, great blog. What do you see from the wave nearing 10W and 15N over western Africa? Emerges in two days time and has a vigorous 850mb vorticity maximum which is symmetrical a sign that there is a surface low strengthening and indeed there is one on visible satellite imagery. This circulation will reach 20W within two days time and I think some quick development is possible. StormW thinks this will recurve given that latitude it is at. I would tend to agree, but this could still become Danielle given the presence of an upper level anticyclone present.
12. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
11. ElConando
4:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Very nice post. The Atlantic seems poised to go off from the third week of August onward. September and October could be 2 record breaking months to remember.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
10. Levi32
4:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
12z GFS operational still seeing the Cape Verde hurricane very strongly. I have a feeling this could be for real, but we'll see how it goes.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
9. JBirdFireMedic
4:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
8. Levi32
4:10 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting ryang1994:
Hey Levi, phenomenal update!

Yeah, ex-TD5 looks better than it ever has today so far. Convection more focused near the center, and a more tight center than yesterday! It SHOULD still be a TD! Anyway...moving on I guess! Under what circumstances does the NHC deactivate/dissipate a TD?

Oh yea, and a random question here out of the blue: Where do tropical waves come from? I know they come from Africa, but where is there origin? What determines how strong different tropical waves are? Is the one possible TRPCL wave culprit (for the storm foretasted by the models 15 days out) still looking good today?

Thanks!

PS> Also a really weird question > Have you ever experienced a hurricane/TS form in December/January? Have there been ANY?


NHC declassifies a tropical depression if the circulation opens up and is no longer closed, or thunderstorm activity decreases enough that the system is too disorganized to be called a depression.

Tropical waves form over Africa within the African Easterly Jet, and the strength and position of this jet generally determines how strong the waves are.

The tropical wave that looks like the culprit for next week is still looking well-defined today.

Yes the Atlantic has had tropical cyclones form in every month of the year, though most of the winter months have only seen one in recorded history. 2005 saw Tropical Storm Zeta form on December 30th and last until January 7th, 2006.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
7. ryang1994
4:02 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Hey Levi, phenomenal update!

Yeah, ex-TD5 looks better than it ever has today so far. Convection more focused near the center, and a more tight center than yesterday! It SHOULD still be a TD! Anyway...moving on I guess! Under what circumstances does the NHC deactivate/dissipate a TD?

Oh yea, and a random question here out of the blue: Where do tropical waves come from? I know they come from Africa, but where is there origin? What determines how strong different tropical waves are? Is the one possible TRPCL wave culprit (for the storm foretasted by the models 15 days out) still looking good today?

Thanks!

PS> Also a really weird question > Have you ever experienced a hurricane/TS form in December/January? Have there been ANY?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
6. twhcracker
3:56 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Well, I would say that you are likely to get rain with the remnants of TD 5 possibly sticking around in the area in combination with a couple different fronts which will try to stick their tails down towards the north gulf coast during the next week. It looks like you could safely bet on some periodic rain, especially during the afternoons, through the next 5-6 days. I hope you get it.


thank you Levi!
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
5. Levi32
3:53 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:
ok, this is gonna sound like a joke question but its for real. argentine bahia grass seed costs 250 a bag and i have two bags, plus fertilizer, i am out 600 bucks if i plant and it doesnt rain (in pasture, no irrigation out there). sooo. Based on your considered opinion, does it look like we will be getting at least a little bit of rain every day from tomorrow thru five or six days?


Well, I would say that you are likely to get rain with the remnants of TD 5 possibly sticking around in the area in combination with a couple different fronts which will try to stick their tails down towards the north gulf coast during the next week. It looks like you could safely bet on some periodic rain, especially during the afternoons, through the next 5-6 days. I hope you get it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
4. wunderkidcayman
3:47 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
nice blog keep it up
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3. cre13
3:45 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
Thanks again Levi!!! Things are starting to sound "scary" for those of us on the east coast!
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2. twhcracker
3:44 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
in florida panhandle north of panamaq city :) I forgot to say where! thanks Levi for your forecast by the way!
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1. twhcracker
3:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2010
ok, this is gonna sound like a joke question but its for real. argentine bahia grass seed costs 250 a bag and i have two bags, plus fertilizer, i am out 600 bucks if i plant and it doesnt rain (in pasture, no irrigation out there). sooo. Based on your considered opinion, does it look like we will be getting at least a little bit of rain every day from tomorrow thru five or six days?
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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