Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra
Monica 180 M.P.H. Winds Heading for Darwin
Posted by: Levi32, 4:40 PM GMT on April 23, 2006 +0

I AM LEAVING FOR ANCHORAGE TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO UPDATE THIS BLOG UNTIL TUESDAY. I WILL MISS MONICA'S LANDFALL BUT I CAN'T HELP THAT. I WILL SEE YOU ALL TUESDAY!


TC Monica has surpassed all expectations and has been a solid Cat 5 on the SS Scale for more than 12 hours now. The JTWC currently has her with sustained winds of 180 M.P.H. and gusts to 215 with a pressure of 879 mb. She absolutely bombed last night! Her eye cleared out and the CDO, ahh, the CDO is just perfect! A compass couldn't draw a better circle. She is currently paralleling the coast and has not directly hit any land yet except a small chain of islands last night. The big problem this morning is the doomsday track forecasted by the JTWC that takes Monica right into Darwin as an upper-end Cat 4 on the SS Scale. The only possible thing that can weaken Monica now is either an EWRC, which is unlikely any time soon, or interaction with land, which is a big question heading into Darwin. No matter what happens, Monica will be a major Cat 3 or stronger hurricane moving toward Darwin and they are in for a potential disaster. I also want to point out how bad the JTWC forecasts were for Monica. They said the outflow channel would decouple and it never has. It is perfectly fine right now. Also the proximity to the coast hasn't affected her either. They are just taking after the NHC. Here are links and maps regarding Monica:



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

CIMSS Upper winds, shear, baroclonics, and other products for Australia

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page

Australia SSTs and Marine Forecast





Click for Larger Image:
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51. ForecasterColby 7:26 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
OMG. 879MB!?
52. Levi32 7:27 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
You got it Colby! That is the OFFICIAL ESTIMATE!!!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
53. theboldman 7:28 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
ahh ok levi

hey is that your real name?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 0
54. Levi32 7:28 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Yes my name is Levi.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
55. ForecasterColby 7:32 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Not quite - JTWC isn't the 'official' there. Still.

By the way, objective T-numbers now T8.0/170kt O_O
56. theboldman 7:33 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
ahh ok


interesting name you dont hear it evey day

unless your shopping for pants LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 0
57. ForecasterColby 7:34 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Haha.

Colby's my middle name, I generally don't use first or last on the internet.
58. Levi32 7:38 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Everyone I have to go for a while got things to do. Besides if I stay on I might die of the adrenalin rush lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
59. theboldman 7:39 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
lol levi go do something with your friends its sunday
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60. theboldman 7:40 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
now colby you dont hear that name every day

no wonder its your middle name (:
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 0
62. Levi32 7:43 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Jeff I am going to have a bike ride and then there is a church BBQ this evening on the Homer Spit. See you all later!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
63. ForecasterColby 7:45 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Monica looks better than Wilma ever did, IMO. Look at the symmetry.
64. theboldman 7:46 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
ahh ok levi
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 0
65. theboldman 7:50 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
have fun

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 0
67. DAVIDKRZW 9:06 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Levi32 you may want to updat the winds from 165 to 195mph and the mb from 892 to 868mb
68. Levi32 9:41 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
David I can't do that those numbers are nuts! I will go with the JTWC intensity for now. I need to update from 165 to 180 though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
69. DAVIDKRZW 9:45 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Levi32 would you go as high as 185mph? when you update
70. Levi32 9:51 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
No I don't think so. Besides I don't think she is currently strengthening any more. I think she is holding steady for the moment.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
71. DAVIDKRZW 9:52 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
i this hop this dos not make land fall like tihs if it dos look out
72. Levi32 9:55 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
There blog is updated. David I hope it doesn't make landfall either.

Everyone unfortunately I will be busy most of this afternoon and evening and will not be on until late evening Alaskan time. Talk to you all later!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
73. ForecasterColby 10:00 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
WWPS20 KNES 232120
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
.
APRIL 23 2006 2033Z
.
11.4S 135.5E T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITIONS....11.3S 137.2E 23/0733Z IRNIGHT
11.6S 138.2E 22/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM IS A LITTLE MORE RAGGED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL
SURROUNDED BY CMG WITH A OW EYE FOR A DT=7.0. MET AND PT WILL BE
THE BASIS FOR A FT OF 7.5.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 24/0400Z. NOTE: THE NEXT
BULLETIN WILL FOUND UNDER THE INDIAN OCEAN HEADER WWIO21 KNES AS
"MONICA" IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 135E.
74. Levi32 10:06 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Colby what's that where did you get it?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
76. Levi32 10:08 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Yep Michael colder cloud tops mean she might still be strengthening, even though the eye doesn't look quite as good as it did earlier.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
77. ForecasterColby 10:08 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Cloud top temps have improved, but the symmetry and eye structure have definetly deteriorated.

I got the bulletin off the SSD's site. Google for 'satellite services division tropical intensity position'
78. Levi32 10:11 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Hey first visible image of the night! Click for larger image:
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
79. Levi32 10:11 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Thanks Colby.
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80. Levi32 10:12 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
Eye wall looks good, but the eye isn't as cloud free as last night.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
81. Levi32 10:15 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
What do you guys think she is doing or will do now that the cloud temps are colder and the eye has more clouds in it?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
82. Levi32 10:39 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
I am heading out now everyone. See you all tonight!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443
83. theboldman 11:42 PM GMT on April 23, 2006    
hey levi check out this link

Link
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 0
84. TheSnowman 2:22 AM GMT on April 24, 2006    
Bold !!!!!!! That's SOO FUNNY!!!!!!!

So I'd say still Wilma was more impressive for many reasons
85. Levi32 4:25 AM GMT on April 24, 2006    
Everyone I am leaving for Anchorage tomorrow and will not be able to update this blog until Tuesday. I will see you all then. Good night!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

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About Levi32
Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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