Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra
90L currently disorganized, but a potential threat down the road
Posted by: Levi32, 4:31 PM GMT on July 30, 2010 +4
If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



Several features are notable in the Atlantic today. A 2nd front coming down off the SE US and near Bermuda will be monitored any development of low pressure over the next couple days, and although this doesn't look like a significant threat, stalled fronts can be sneaky and should always be watched for home-grown mischief.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is entering a favorable environment but it is not very amplified and will move into central America without developing much. Another tropical wave generating widespread convection in the eastern Caribbean is associated with a large and elongated area of cyclonic turning which will have to be watched for possible mischief when it gets into the western Caribbean in a few days and gets ventilated by the TUTT.

Invest 90L continues to be the biggest story and is still sitting out in the eastern Atlantic near 32W. The system is maintaining a well-defined low-mid level circulation but has lost a lot of convection, and is suffering from being embedded in the ITCZ. As expected this is making very little progress westward and will continue to move slowly over the next couple of days before accelerating WNW after the weekend. This should end up in the vicinity of the northern Antilles in 6-7 days.

As for whether this develops, it's still not a given that it will, although it still appears to have a decent shot at it. A big tropical wave coming off Africa behind 90L may try to merge with the system over the next few days while it is stalled, allowing the other wave to catch up from behind. This other wave may end up being the real catalyst for development, but either way any development of 90L will be slow and gradual over the next few days until it can get free of the ITCZ. After that, if it develops, my feeling is that it would be likely to strengthen, and could be a threat to land farther west. I don't think this is recurving. Ridging is once again looking to become dominant over the eastern US and with the MJO getting ready to return to the Atlantic soon this pattern is supported. The models will continue to flop around on this. The ECMWF is actually having an abnormally tough time resolving the upper pattern over the next 10 days, and thus we must use more common sense and good old-fashioned forecasting with this system for now.

Overall, I give 90L a low chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 2 days, with a moderate-high chance of ever developing. Right now this is still nearly a week away from threatening the Caribbean and even farther than that from potentially threatening the United States, so we will just keep an eye on this system for a possible long-range threat.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 90L Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Invest 90L Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):








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1. breald 4:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
I really like your video updates. Thanks Levi!
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298
2. hydrus 4:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thank you for the update.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14280
3. InTheCone 4:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thanks Levi, great update!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
4. PRweathercenter 4:49 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Great update Levi! we will keep a close eye on it, since we are trapped in Puerto Rico, lol
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 57 Comments: 915
5. AustinTXWeather 5:01 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Levi, not sure if this is the case for others but when I have gone to your blog the last two times, the text is all squished to the right-side of the screen.. almost like a vertical line. Thought I'd share in case it's showing up that way for others so you can fix. If not, no worries -- appreciate the updates! :)
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6. Levi32 5:18 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Levi, not sure if this is the case for others but when I have gone to your blog the last two times, the text is all squished to the right-side of the screen.. almost like a vertical line. Thought I'd share in case it's showing up that way for others so you can fix. If not, no worries -- appreciate the updates! :)


I can probably bet that you're using Internet Explorer, am I right? It seems that most people using IE will see my blog in a vertical line lol. Any other browser will display it fine. IE has issues with Wunderground.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
7. ho77yw00d 5:21 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thank you so much! great job on the video !!!
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
8. dfwWxDude 5:23 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thanks for pulling together all in the information and making it plain enough for a novice to understand! I've got your blog bookmarked now, please continue the updates.
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
9. homelesswanderer 5:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thanks Levi. Made a deal with hubby. He got to watch a Fleetwood Mac video I got to watch yours. Lol. I can't stand Stevie Nicks voice. I do enjoy yours though. Great update. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
10. SunnyDaysFla 5:50 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thanks Levi
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11. seflagamma 7:36 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Hi Levi,

Another great job.

and yes, now at home I use Chrome with WeatherUnderground instead of IE...
Chrome seems to work the best.

But have not yet gotten use to it for other sites...
at least we can take it easy over the weekend and not fear an impending storm.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
12. Dennis8 8:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Levi,

Very Nice. I enjoy your video. I am in Houston and have experienced 10 storms in my lifetime ( old man 47).My grandmother used to tell me when I was a little boy a Hurricane Bulletin would come on and I would run to the TV. That was all I had and the radio! Come a long way to your video on my computer.

I have a BS degree and studied meteorology at The University of St. Thomas here and studied through MSU also many moons ago. I worked briefly and Hobby Airport as a Private forecaster but my work then veered away from meteorology though it remains a hobby.I am now in social work with Catholic Charities.

Your videos remind me of how much I have FORGOTTEN!

Keep up the good work.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
13. Levi32 8:37 PM GMT on July 30, 2010    
Thanks all for stopping by :)

Dennis - Thank you. Wow that's awesome....always wondered what it would be like to be a forecaster back in those days. Very different from now for sure. It must have been fun having no computer models running the show.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
14. AustinTXWeather 5:43 PM GMT on August 02, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


I can probably bet that you're using Internet Explorer, am I right? It seems that most people using IE will see my blog in a vertical line lol. Any other browser will display it fine. IE has issues with Wunderground.


Just seeing this -- yes! It was on IE :)
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About Levi32
Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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