96L developing, but too late to be a huge problem

By: Levi32 , 5:44 PM GMT on July 07, 2010

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If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default.



Invest 96L is now starting to organize, and if this system had 3-4 more days over water it would be a big big problem for the west gulf coast, but as it stands this has 24 hours before landfall near the TX/MX border and will not have the time to bring anything more than nasty tropical weather to coastal northern Mexico and southeast Texas, with heavy rains and up to gale-force wind gusts at the coast to the north of where this makes landfall.

96L's mid-level center which became well-defined over the Yucatan last night is now moving off into the gulf, but it doesn't have to do all the work on its own like we thought it would have to yesterday. The surface trough that was up in the central gulf yesterday has continued northwest and is starting to bring thunderstorms and windy weather into SW Louisiana and NE Texas, but the southern portion of the trough is hanging back near the area of lowest pressures, and the surface circulation is starting to become much better defined nearing 24N, 93.5W. This is amazing to see because it is exactly what happened with Hurricane Alex 2 weeks ago when he was out in the Caribbean. His surface center ran off towards the area of lowest pressures and made the mid-level center play catch-up, but they did eventually get married, vertically stacked, and off the storm went and bombed out before hitting Belize.

This is what 96L is doing now. The surface center initially ran off, but the southern portion of that surface trough has hung back and is now becoming well-defined at the area of lowest pressures relative to normal. Now that it's in that area, which has been sitting there for a few days now, it will start to wind up, and you will see this thing really try to develop now that it is bringing the mid-level center in. Once the surface and mid-level centers get stacked later today, this thing will really try to ramp up. It's over the cold SST wake of Alex so that may be a limiting factor, but if this starts to feedback it just might make a run at TD status, and you never know it could even try to become Bonnie, but it has some obstacles to clear in order to get there. This is the point where things really start to come together for 96L if it can overcome the dry air to its west, which may be another limiting factor.

Overall, if this had more time, it would be a huge problem, but it does not have the time to be more than a pain in the neck for northern Mexico and south Texas. The entire coastline from northern Mexico up to Louisiana should be expecting very tropical weather with heavy rains and gusty winds, possibly to gale-force in some areas of south Texas, as this system comes ashore.

Elsewhere....the trough-split occurring off the Carolinas is entraining an old front and a tropical wave which is bringing a lot of tropical energy into the SW Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if the upper low can pull this energy underneath and try to feedback some kind of hybrid low as it lifts out to the north in a couple days. This is not likely to be a significant tropical development, but may bring some nasty weather to coastal New England and the Maritime provinces of Canada on its way northward, if it comes far enough west. Overall this is not a significant concern.

A couple of tropical waves with associated ITCZ disturbances in the central Atlantic are not in a hurry to develop right now, but will be entering more favorable environmental conditions in the Caribbean down the road in the next 5-8 days, and will be watched for mischief.

During the last few days the long-range GFS has been depicting a very favorable pattern for Cape Verde development, and really development in general across the entire tropical Atlantic during the 2nd half of July, and I show you this pattern on the video. The ECMWF and GFS have been hinting at mischief in the eastern Atlantic in 10-15 days, so I will be keeping an eye on this pattern to see if it verifies. We're getting into the meat of July now, and it would not be surprising at all to see our first Cape Verde-type development out in the central-eastern Atlantic at some point this month. Things are about to start humming out there.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 96L Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Invest 96L track models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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87. atmosweather
7:18 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Meanwhile, ASCAT continues to show some broad low level spin associated with the cut-off low W of Bermuda. Before it starts recurving back to the N and NNE it does have a 36-48 hour window under warm SST's to see some subtropical development.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
86. atmosweather
6:32 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
TD 2 is really struggling right now...no deep convection firing near the center in at least 4 hours and an increasingly elongated surface center. Unless the approaching diurnal maximum can help it redevelop some cold cloud tops around its COC then it may be pretty much dead in terms of being a tropical cyclone by the morning.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
85. ryang1994
4:29 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


The cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean doesn't appear to be anything significant, as they were generated over land by daytime heating.

I'll have to see how the trough-split looks tomorrow. We may very well get an interesting system out of it, but subtropical lows are very tricky.


Right! Well, as your famous saying says: "We shall see what happens"! =P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
84. Levi32
4:27 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting ryang1994:
Holy Crap! I leave for a few hours...come back and it's become a tropical depression? Interesting!

I guess you have alot to talk about in tomorrow's video, with TD 2's developments/track, and what's happening with the trough-split thing near the Carolinas.....would TD 2 make landfall before or after you do the video? You might wanna get some sleep tonight. lol

Looking at the Western Satellite Loop...the is something entering the Caribbean Sea coming off of South America, and it's at 13N and 75W! Anything to be concerned about?

That trough-split situation really has a nice curl to it! Expecting it to become a TD?


The cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean doesn't appear to be anything significant, as they were generated over land by daytime heating.

I'll have to see how the trough-split looks tomorrow. We may very well get an interesting system out of it, but subtropical lows are very tricky.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
83. ryang1994
4:23 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Holy Crap! I leave for a few hours...come back and it's become a tropical depression? Interesting!

I guess you have alot to talk about in tomorrow's video, with TD 2's developments/track, and what's happening with the trough-split thing near the Carolinas.....would TD 2 make landfall before or after you do the video? You might wanna get some sleep tonight. lol

Looking at the Western Satellite Loop...the is something entering the Caribbean Sea coming off of South America, and it's at 13N and 75W! Anything to be concerned about?

That trough-split situation really has a nice curl to it! Expecting it to become a TD?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
82. Levi32
4:13 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
The low between North Carolina and Bermuda is over SSTs of 27-28C. Subtropical transition is definitely possible before it is pulled north in 24-36 hours.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
81. atmosweather
4:11 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.







That could acquire some subtropical/tropical characteristics as it drifts N-ward tonight.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
80. atmosweather
4:09 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Hmm....ASCAT from one hour ago didn't capture the SW quad, but the surface center appears elongated northeast. At first glance it may appear that the circulation is open, but a recon mission just a couple hours ago coupled with visible imagery clearly confirmed a closed circulation with a large batch of west and NW surface winds south of the center.



Gotta trust RECON I guess...that's about as reliable data as we have.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
79. Levi32
4:05 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
On another note....check out the trough-split upper low off of the Carolinas now having worked down to the surface and firing some convection near the center.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
78. Levi32
3:54 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Hmm....ASCAT from one hour ago didn't capture the SW quad, but the surface center appears elongated northeast. At first glance it may appear that the circulation is open, but a recon mission just a couple hours ago coupled with visible imagery clearly confirmed a closed circulation with a large batch of west and NW surface winds south of the center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
77. Levi32
3:49 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Thanks lol. I'll do my best.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
76. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:47 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Hard....barely getting Calculus assignments in on time. Such are the consequences of taking a summer distance course that is squeezed into half the time of a regular semester. I hope I can survive multiple classes this fall.


Ouch...That doesn't sound too fun...I think you'll do well :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33448
75. Levi32
3:45 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Off TD #2...

How's school going Levi?


Hard....barely getting Calculus assignments in on time. Such are the consequences of taking a summer distance course that is squeezed into half the time of a regular semester. I hope I can survive multiple classes this fall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
74. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:43 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Off TD #2...

How's school going Levi?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33448
73. atmosweather
3:42 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
DLM ridge is building in quickly as expected...TD 2 won't be moving any further N than 300 for much longer.. Could be another N MX landfall.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
72. Levi32
3:38 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:


Well it has good banding features in the eastern semicircle, a well-defined surface circulation (for now), and hints of outflow in the NE and SE quadrants. It could easily get it together tonight during the diurnal max. and end up as a 45kt TS by morning.


Yeah, we shall see. We might see a last minute wind-up as soon as it deviates from Alex's track, which went into Mexico further south, and it is momentarily freed from his cold-water wake for the last few hours before landfall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
71. atmosweather
3:37 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


This is true....highly-advertised flood watches would have done the trick probably.

One thing to remember is that tomorrow this very well may look a lot more like a true tropical depression or even a tropical storm. Don't be surprised if TD 2 isn't as naked tomorrow if it can adjust to its new environment and take advantage of fairly favorable conditions.


Well it has good banding features in the eastern semicircle, a well-defined surface circulation (for now), and hints of outflow in the NW and SW quadrants. It could easily get it together tonight during the diurnal max. and end up as a 45kt TS by morning.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
70. Levi32
3:33 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Rapid-scan IR loop of TD 2
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
69. Levi32
3:28 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:


The only thing I would say is, the NHC doesn't have to be the agency to warn people...the NWS could have done this themselves (and have been doing it for the last 48 hours) without the NHC designating it as a tropical depression.


This is true....highly-advertised flood watches would have done the trick probably.

One thing to remember is that tomorrow this very well may look a lot more like a true tropical depression or even a tropical storm. Don't be surprised if TD 2 isn't as naked tomorrow if it can adjust to its new environment and take advantage of fairly favorable conditions.
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68. Levi32
3:25 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Mid-level ridge building into the Gulf of Mexico from the northeast will keep TD 2 on a generally WNW heading through landfall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
67. atmosweather
3:25 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
The NHC probably did make the right call here, with the system being close to the coast and posing a major flooding threat. The only issues arise with systems way out in the middle of nowhere where they have higher standards to be met for TD status, and that's where the controversy lies. With this system near the coast, this is a good call. People need to be made aware of this dangerous storm.
\
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.


The only thing I would say is, the NHC doesn't have to be the agency to warn people...the NWS could have done this themselves (and have been doing it for the last 48 hours) without the NHC designating it as a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
66. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:23 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
For some reason, I have a really bad feeling about the next storm that forms, which would be Colin. I dont know why, but I dont like it. XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33448
65. Levi32
3:22 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Track takes it right on top of the border as a 40-kt TS.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
64. Levi32
3:19 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
The NHC probably did make the right call here, with the system being close to the coast and posing a major flooding threat. The only issues arise with systems way out in the middle of nowhere where they have higher standards to be met for TD status, and that's where the controversy lies. With this system near the coast, this is a good call. People need to be made aware of this dangerous storm.
\
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
63. atmosweather
3:15 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO
NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER
REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A
RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE
TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE
SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
62. atmosweather
3:00 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
61. Levi32
2:59 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
I don't really have a problem either way, but they need to make a decision on how to classify these things. So what if it's close to shore or not? For the sake of the accuracy of the season tallies in the history books, classify it if it deserves it, period.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
60. atmosweather
2:59 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Now picture Invest 92L when the NHC said they wanted 12-24 hours of DEEP convection over the center to classify it despite its closed circulation? Where's the consistency? The NHC sometimes demands convection and sometimes doesn't. I just wish they could stay consistent one way or the other. The reason this was classified is probably because it's close to shore, but should that matter? This is the definition we are supposed to be held to:

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.


That's 3 separate invests just in the first 5 weeks of the season that they have been treated in a totally puzzling way. I'm thinking they need to scrap the 12+ hours of deep convection rule altogether because in the last couple of years there have been too many examples where they have gone one way with one system and then the opposite way with another system.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
59. Levi32
2:49 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:


LMAO that's a surprise!!! Where is it LOL???


Now picture Invest 92L when the NHC said they wanted 12-24 hours of DEEP convection over the center to classify it despite its closed circulation? Where's the consistency? The NHC sometimes demands convection and sometimes doesn't. I just wish they could stay consistent one way or the other. The reason this was classified is probably because it's close to shore, but should that matter? This is the definition we are supposed to be held to:

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
58. atmosweather
2:45 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
LOL


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


We have TD #2!


LMAO that's a surprise!!! Where is it LOL???
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
57. Levi32
2:32 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
LOL


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


We have TD #2!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
56. atmosweather
2:29 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Hmm where's the convection??? Now you see it...now ya don't LOL!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
55. Levi32
1:24 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting EmmyRose:
We were on the dirty side of Alex
if this comes in a bit NORTH of that
wouldn't we STILL be on the dirty side????


Yes, but Alex was a massive storm. 96L is not quite that large. You will be getting some heavy precipitation, don't get me wrong, but the bulk of the worst weather should stay south of you.

The GFS parallel has 1-3 inches of rain (likely a bit too low) of rain falling along the Texas coast during the next 2 days, and it shows the region of heaviest rain making it right up to Galveston/Houston, but not quite encompassing that area. It will be a close call, but I think you will be spared the worst. You guys should be prepared for some possible flooding though. It's definitely going to be a very wet next couple of days. Expect at least a couple of inches in your area.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
54. atmosweather
1:22 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting EmmyRose:
We were on the dirty side of Alex
if this comes in a bit NORTH of that
wouldn't we STILL be on the dirty side????


Technically yes but this system is nowhere near as large and wet as Alex so it won't be too bad for you. Expect 2-4 inches of rain at least though.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
53. EmmyRose
1:20 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
We were on the dirty side of Alex
if this comes in a bit NORTH of that
wouldn't we STILL be on the dirty side????
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
52. atmosweather
1:11 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting EmmyRose:
If this "td" comes into the same area, as Alex, we will get the fall out. Has anyone really nailed where it may come in yet? I should listen to your vid...LOL


The strong deep layer ridge centered across the mid-Atlantic will push 96L/TD 2/Bonnie on a pretty straight WNW-ward path towards the TX/MX border...probably a little N of there.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
51. Levi32
1:08 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I agree completely with your headline. My one concern, and it is a big one, is that if it moves close enough to the track of Alex and brings in enough heavy rain falling on saturated ground, truly catastrophic flooding over northeast Mexico may result. I hope the civil authorities there make it clear to everyone that even though this may not be a strong storm like Alex, its flooding could be even more dangerous and destructive than Alex was.


That is a big concern of mine as well. Unfortunately a lot of the northern areas drenched by Alex will likely see at least some more rain from 96L, as it will be heading straight inland as Alex did without recurving northward. I hope people are made aware of the situation.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
49. Levi32
1:04 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting EmmyRose:
If this "td" comes into the same area, as Alex, we will get the fall out. Has anyone really nailed where it may come in yet? I should listen to your vid...LOL


Lol, well the track has been pretty straight-forward with 96L so far. It looks to be going in pretty close to the TX/MX border, north of where Alex came in. This should put the heaviest rain south of you, but you will definitely get some.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
48. EmmyRose
1:01 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
If this "td" comes into the same area, as Alex, we will get the fall out. Has anyone really nailed where it may come in yet? I should listen to your vid...LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
47. Levi32
12:54 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting EmmyRose:
YIKES - we dont need one more inch of rain...
NOOOOOOOO


I bet...hopefully you're far enough north to miss the bulk of the rain as this comes ashore. There are some showers moving through right now.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
46. EmmyRose
12:49 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
YIKES - we dont need one more inch of rain...
NOOOOOOOO
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
45. Levi32
12:46 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
This looks much more like a tropical depression to me...infinitely huge improvement over yesterday!


For sure. Alex's cold wake is sure doing a number on its convection though. I'd like to see widespread cloud tops get back up to -60C (deep oranges to red on SSD AVN IR enhancement). Right now structure is good but deep convection is lacking. If that doesn't improve then they may not classify it. We'll see if it bursts during diurnal max tonight.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
44. atmosweather
12:31 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
This looks much more like a tropical depression to me...infinitely huge improvement over yesterday!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
43. Levi32
12:03 AM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting atmosweather:
RECON must have found a decently organized low level center:


Eh ish....mid-level recon missions don't give you a whole lot, but it did help. The dropsondes the plane has been dropping have confirmed a nice, closed, well-defined circulation at the surface, though they haven't gotten really close to the surface center yet. The plane is up at the 640mb level and thus the winds being reported here are in the mid-levels. The mid-level center appears elongated based on these observations, which is expected since it's still trying to get stacked over the surface center to the north.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
42. atmosweather
11:56 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
RECON must have found a decently organized low level center:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072353
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
41. Levi32
11:41 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting alfabob:


Mixture of satellite, vorticity, and combining maps by land features. Not the greatest technique but the error shouldn't be to bad. It also looks like the pressure drop is somewhere between 42055 and 42002



Well satellite observations are great for personal use but can also be subject to error and will differ between different forecasters analyzing the same storm. If there is no real controversy over where the center is, the ATCF coordinates should be used for best accuracy. So far I don't see 96L significantly deviating from the model forecasts.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
39. Levi32
11:20 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting alfabob:
I tried to get everything layered up correctly. Yellow circle is main area of 850 mb vorticity as of 2100 UTC. When I try to track it, my position ends up being northeast of the current models. Anyone else see something like this?



Depends on how you track it....are you using your own observations of satellite imagery or are you using official ATCF coordinates?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26730
37. atmosweather
11:13 PM GMT on July 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Alex's cool SST wake looks like it is playing a part in limiting 96L's convective development near the center:



Yeah it's definitely not helping right now...although I think the diurnal convective cycle has something to do with it too. Look for an increase in deep convection tonight as it gets out of the slightly cool SST spot it's in right now and with the diurnal maximum assisting it.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265

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