Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra
Invest 93L a big threat
Posted by: Levi32, 4:01 PM GMT on June 21, 2010 +1
A new disturbance is forming in the eastern Caribbean, and is the most concerning of the season so far. A low pressure area has formed along a well-defined tropical wave along 68W. This low has been designated Invest 93L. Widespread moderate-heavy convection is associated with this wave, but the surface low is not closed.



For the first time this year, we have a tropical disturbance with an environment ahead of it that is conducive for significant development. An upper-level ridge is currently building over 93L, providing low wind shear of 5-10 knots and good divergence aloft. Even better is that the TUTT is still sitting off to the west over the northwest Caribbean, and as this lifts out and backs away over the next few days ahead of 93L, it will provide excellent ventilation of the system.

Ex-Invest 92L, now a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean, is instrumental in setting the stage up for 93L. Although it is located underneath the TUTT and is sheared to pieces, ex-92L is still contributing a large amount of moisture to the area, and is serving to clear out any dry air that was lingering in the western Caribbean, leaving a very moist environment out in front of 93L. Ex-92L is also lowering surface pressures and slowing down the air flow in the western Caribbean, increasing surface convergence. This is also preparing the way for 93L, which will have a very favorable environment in the western Caribbean. Also working in 93L's favor are the slow trade winds running through the Caribbean right now. Usually the central-eastern Caribbean is a burial ground for tropical waves, and is generally a dead-zone for tropical development, but the fast trade winds that are usually screaming through that area are pushed off to the east right now and winds are lighter than usual in the central Caribbean, allowing air to converge and rise around 93L.

The ECMWF is very aggressive with this system, curving it north into the Gulf of Mexico and winding it up into a major hurricane. The model, however, has been going through wild swings on the track forecast, and both track and intensity should regarded with little merit as we don't even have a developed system yet. It is, however, concerning to see the ECMWF all over this, and the reality here is that a system like 93L curving up into the Gulf of Mexico right now under favorable environmental conditions with SSTs as hot as they are, would have no problem at all becoming a hurricane. I know we are only talking about our potential first named storm of the year, but this is not likely to be one of those heavily sheared tropical storms that we are used to seeing for a season opener. This is the real deal.

With SSTs and ocean heat content through the roof in the western Caribbean, I expect 93L will have no problem gradually organizing over the next couple days, and see nothing really stopping it from becoming a tropical cyclone. I cannot speculate too much on the eventual track of the system until I see exactly where it will consolidate, but it is likely 93L would eventually curve northwest into the Gulf of Mexico due to a weakness in the mid-level steering ridge to the north. Whether this runs into the Yucatan first is hard to say yet. Again I would like to see it consolidate and show development first, but the system will be heading towards the WNW over the next couple days.

Overall, this is a situation that should be closely monitored. I give 93L a high chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 4 days, and we have a good chance of seeing it eventually named Alex.

Elsewhere....there are no other areas of immediate concern for tropical development.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 93L Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Invest 93L Track Models:





Caribbean/East Pacific Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):








2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
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1. EmmyRose 4:07 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Thanks Levi. I often lurk. I have IE so its hard to read your header but I do appreciate all your posts. We are standing vigilant on this side of the GOM.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76397
2. Levi32 4:10 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting EmmyRose:
Thanks Levi. I often lurk. I have IE so its hard to read your header but I do appreciate all your posts. We are standing vigilant on this side of the GOM.


I wish I could fix the IE problem....nobody else's blog seems to have that issue. I'm sorry it's like that. You could just try Firefox once ;)

Thanks Emmy.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
3. EmmyRose 4:12 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Levi - don't worry I get the info I need. Just have to pretend you're reading Japanese or something. I just appreciate the info you've always put out.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76397
4. smmcdavid 4:13 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Thanks Levi, great update! I'll be checking back.

Hi Emmy. :)
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
5. Walshy 4:18 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
o.0
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618
6. Levi32 4:20 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting EmmyRose:
Levi - don't worry I get the info I need. Just have to pretend you're reading Japanese or something. I just appreciate the info you've always put out.


LOL, well maybe next April Fool's day I really will write it in Japanese :)

Quoting Walshy:
Levi, do you have xbox LIVE?


No I don't.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
7. EmmyRose 4:26 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Levi - I'll remind you LOL

Hello and congrats Awesome
aren't you glad you live inland now?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76397
8. cyclonekid 4:28 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Great Job!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629
9. wxgeek723 4:32 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
This certainly isn't good. It's been 15 years since an Atlantic hurricane has formed in June.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350
10. 1900hurricane 4:36 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Doing good as always Levi! I'm not sure if I've ever seen something so far out with such good chances of developing and getting into the Gulf.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366
11. GetReal 4:45 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Levi everything, and I mean everything, is falling into place for a rare MAJOR June hurricane in the GOM this upcoming weekend.

You can almost take that to the bank!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8196
12. Levi32 4:51 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting GetReal:
Levi everything, and I mean everything, is falling into place for a rare MAJOR June hurricane in the GOM this upcoming weekend.

You can almost take that to the bank!


Well I'm not gonna make that leap yet, but this is a scary situation if this does develop.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
13. smmcdavid 5:00 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting EmmyRose:
Levi - I'll remind you LOL

Hello and congrats Awesome
aren't you glad you live inland now?


Thanks! And, yes. Yes, I am. :)
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
14. GetReal 5:05 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm not gonna make that leap yet, but this is a scary situation if this does develop.


That's OK, I did it for you!!! (As long as you remember that; especially if I am right!!! LOL)
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8196
15. Levi32 5:24 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting GetReal:


That's OK, I did it for you!!! (As long as you remember that; especially if I am right!!! LOL)


LOL....will do :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450
16. shoreacres 5:35 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Levi ~

Uh... thanks??? for the update. No, really thanks. Nothing like the possibility of a June hurricane to get the adrenaline flowing.

I've just run your page through FF, IE7 & Maxthon - no problem. Not sure what others are seeing - I'll just count myself lucky for once ;-)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14798
17. Levi32 7:26 PM GMT on June 21, 2010    
Quoting shoreacres:
Levi ~

Uh... thanks??? for the update. No, really thanks. Nothing like the possibility of a June hurricane to get the adrenaline flowing.

I've just run your page through FF, IE7 & Maxthon - no problem. Not sure what others are seeing - I'll just count myself lucky for once ;-)


Lol, well I'm glad to hear it works for you :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

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About Levi32
Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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