92L a possible threat down the road; watching the African wave train

By: Levi32 , 3:39 PM GMT on June 18, 2010

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Invest 92L, which apparently was not discontinued, has crossed the Antilles Islands, and has degenerated into a tropical wave. Although 92L didn't begin as a tropical wave, the properties of a dissipating westward-propagating tropical cyclone allow us to call it a tropical wave. 92L put on quite a show last night, with the longest-lasting MCC (12 hours) of its lifetime, which blew up east of the center. This has collapsed overnight, as wind shear was just too much to allow the surface center to get underneath and feedback. The center of low-level turning along the wave axis is currently located west of Guadeloupe, moving westward.

Although 92L will likely keep trying periodic burstings of convection east of its wave axis, I expect nothing as large as last night due to its circulation now being completely open, and 92L's chances of development during the next 3 days remain near zero. The TUTT to the west will be keeping strong wind shear over the system during most of its passage across the northern Caribbean. Beyond this point, though, 92L will have to be watched very closely. The system will be skirting southern Hispaniola and Cuba on its way WNW, and will eventually end up in the Gulf of Mexico in 5-6 days. At some point 92L will have to actually bust right through the shear zone and pop out on the other side of the TUTT. This is actually a classic setup for mischief, as it has the look of a situation where you get a tropical wave blowing up as it approaches the TUTT, then gets sheared as it goes under it, and then pops out the other side in an area with light shear and favorable ventilation. The western wide of a TUTT is usually conducive for tropical development, and with all the moisture that 92L is carrying with it, this will be something to watch very closely when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.



Elsewhere....the Atlantic is fairly quiet. A very active ITCZ continues across the central and eastern Atlantic, and has formed several areas of low-mid level turning, along with moderate-strong convection. These areas remain poorly organized, although models are hinting that one of these areas may try to spin up into something substantial within the next 5 days. I believe the concern goes even beyond that, and I don't think we've heard the last of the African wave train this month. I can't remember it ever being this active in June, and with all these disturbances trying to spin up within it, it's only a matter of time before one develops. The upper ridge building into the Caribbean behind 92L will be setting the stage with favorable conditions for development, should one of these tropical waves or disturbances try to lift north and move into the Caribbean. I will be monitoring this area.

The Caribbean, with the exception of 92L, is quiet, although some models are hinting that lowering pressures in the western Caribbean over the next 10 days might try to spark the formation of a low. So far there is no hint of anything significant trying to develop, but the area will be watched once the TUTT lifts out in a few days.

Overall, the pattern continues to get more active, as you can tell a lot of these waves coming off of Africa just want to pop and develop, but most are not being given the proper chance yet, which is normal for June. What isn't normal is having this much activity east of the Caribbean, and this is a big sign of some nasty things we will be seeing coming out of the tropical Atlantic this summer. The MJO is now back over our area of the world, and should remain there through early July, enhancing upward motion in the Atlantic. These last 2 weeks of June and the first couple of July could see the real kick-off to the hurricane season with 2 and perhaps 3 named storms by mid-July.

We shall see what happens!

Invest 92L Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Invest 92L Track Models:





Caribbean/East Pacific Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):








2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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14. Levi32
6:54 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:


The same thing was happening to me earlier this week but now it is ok... not sure why it comes and goes like that but I also got the blog "stacking"the words. LOL



Levi,
Thank you so much for the information.
I had no idea about any of that.. I learned a lot of new stuff from you today.
It did always puzzle me about how at the same distance from the equator could be different temps.

and I thought the entire Pacific was cold but I see now, Southern Asia is even warmer that we are .

Again, thank you so much for answering my question with the explanation in a format I could easily understand...
and the graphics with it so I could visualize what you were saying!


You are very welcome :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
13. Levi32
6:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting weatherman566:


True, Internet Explorer has some ups and downs, but i still use it for Bufkit usage. A browser is a browser for me.


Well....get a Firefox-Tab add-on for IE or something so that my blog (not sure why it's only mine) doesn't grow epically tall like that for you lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
12. seflagamma
6:49 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting weatherman566:
Levi-

Great blogs, but how come every time I read them, the font is all screwed up? All I see is one word per line, and i have to read your blog vertically? I have tried reading it on different computers too. HTML issues?



The same thing was happening to me earlier this week but now it is ok... not sure why it comes and goes like that but I also got the blog "stacking"the words. LOL



Levi,
Thank you so much for the information.
I had no idea about any of that.. I learned a lot of new stuff from you today.
It did always puzzle me about how at the same distance from the equator could be different temps.

and I thought the entire Pacific was cold but I see now, Southern Asia is even warmer that we are .

Again, thank you so much for answering my question with the explanation in a format I could easily understand...
and the graphics with it so I could visualize what you were saying!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40958
11. weatherman566
6:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Internet Explorer....that's all it is. Use Firefox or Chrome honestly lol I don't know why you guys still use that piece of junk for a web browser.


True, Internet Explorer has some ups and downs, but i still use it for Bufkit usage. A browser is a browser for me.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
10. Levi32
6:05 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting weatherman566:
Levi-

Great blogs, but how come every time I read them, the font is all screwed up? All I see is one word per line, and i have to read your blog vertically? I have tried reading it on different computers too. HTML issues?



Internet Explorer....that's all it is. Use Firefox or Chrome honestly lol I don't know why you guys still use that piece of junk for a web browser.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
9. weatherman566
5:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Levi-

Great blogs, but how come every time I read them, the font is all screwed up? All I see is one word per line, and i have to read your blog vertically? I have tried reading it on different computers too. HTML issues?

Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
8. lavinia
5:22 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Great update Levi.

Your answer about the Atlantic/Pacific ocean temps was great and as always, so easy to understand. Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
7. Levi32
4:49 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting txsweetpea:
Thanks Levi,
If it reaches the Gulf what do you predict it will become or do?


That is a call that cannot be made yet, as it is still several days away. There is a lot that could change, and we have to see two main things. One is how healthy 92L looks by the time it reaches the gulf. Secondly we need to figure out what the environmental pattern will be in the gulf when 92L gets there, and since there is some disagreement on how fast 92L will take to travel to the gulf, it is hard to pin down what the upper winds will be like when it finally does get there.

We will know more in a few days. For now I am just tracking it and monitoring it to see if it remains a possible mischief-maker when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
6. Levi32
4:40 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi Levi,

another great update.

I have a question I have always wondered why and you probably know the answer.

Why is the Pacific Ocean so much colder than the Atlantic?

I know even off Southern California, that water is icy cold compared to our Ocean Water off Florida.

I can understand the GOM being so warm, because it is almost like water in a shallow bowl..(my swimming pool right now has water temp of 92 degrees)
But the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are so large and basically cover the same type of areas..


And it appears that even at the equator, the Pacfic has colder water that our bath water we call the Atlantic.

Is there a reason why?

Thanks! I will check back later to see if you stopped by with some ideas for me.



Well, the eastern Pacific is cold, but the western Pacific is very warm like the western Atlantic is.

Here's a chart of the current global SSTs for reference.



The reason the eastern Pacific is cold is because each large ocean basin in the northern hemisphere (just the Pacific and Atlantic) has a system of major ocean currents which flow clockwise around the edge of each basin. On the western sides of the north Pacific and north Atlantic, the ocean currents, called west-boundary currents, are from the south, which bring warm water up from the equator. In the west Pacific, this is the Kuroshio Current. In the western Atlantic, this is the Gulf Stream, which we are very familiar with, and obviously brings very warm water up the eastern seaboard.



On the eastern sides of the north Pacific and north Atlantic, the clockwise flow of the ocean currents takes them into the colder regions of the sub-arctic, and from there they come down the eastern sides of the ocean basins from the north, where they are called east-boundary currents. These currents bring colder water down from the high latitudes towards the equator, resulting in a tongue of cooler water down the eastern sides of the Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, this current is called the California Current, which as you mentioned, results in relatively cold water off of California. In the Atlantic, this is called the Canary current, and this current is the reason why the eastern Atlantic does not support tropical storm formation nearly as far north as the western Atlantic does, where the Gulf Stream takes warm water quite far to the north.

The water off of California, then, is colder than directly across in the Atlantic because the current along the coast of California is a cold one from the north, while the current along the east coast of North America is a warm one from the south.

This entire system of warm water being brought up on the west side and cold water down on the east side is very similar to a high pressure system in the weather. Think of last winter when cold highs came down from Canada and the northerly flow on its east side brought cold, frigid air from the arctic down into Florida. Other times you end up on the western side of the high, when warm air from the tropics is brought northward.


As for the other part of your question about the equator having cold water in the Pacific, the answer here is similar. In the southern hemisphere, ocean currents in the large basins flow the opposite direction as in the northern hemisphere, counter-clockwise. This means that, like in the northern hemisphere, cold water from the arctic regions (in this case Antarctica) is brought up the eastern sides of the South Pacific and South Atlantic. The cold current coming up the west coast of South America is called the Humboldt Current, and this turns left along the equator, resulting in the semipermanent tongue of cooler water that is always there in the eastern Pacific west of South America, which you can see in the SST image I posted. In a La Nina, the Humboldt Current gets upwelled more than normal, and this tongue becomes colder than normal as more cold water is pushed westward along the equator. In an El Nino, upwelling is lessened, and the cold tongue is pushed back towards South America as warm water is pushed in from the west.



I hope that answered your question! Let me know if you have more, or if I didn't explain this well.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
5. seflagamma
4:04 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Hi Levi,

another great update.

I have a question I have always wondered why and you probably know the answer.

Why is the Pacific Ocean so much colder than the Atlantic?

I know even off Southern California, that water is icy cold compared to our Ocean Water off Florida.

I can understand the GOM being so warm, because it is almost like water in a shallow bowl..(my swimming pool right now has water temp of 92 degrees)
But the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are so large and basically cover the same type of areas..


And it appears that even at the equator, the Pacfic has colder water that our bath water we call the Atlantic.

Is there a reason why?

Thanks! I will check back later to see if you stopped by with some ideas for me.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40958
4. MiamiHurricanes09
4:01 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Magnificent job as usual Levi.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3. txsweetpea
4:01 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Thanks Levi,
If it reaches the Gulf what do you predict it will become or do?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
2. NCWatch
3:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Thanks Levi.
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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