Invest 92L, which apparently was not discontinued, has crossed the Antilles Islands, and has degenerated into a tropical wave. Although 92L didn't begin as a tropical wave, the properties of a dissipating westward-propagating tropical cyclone allow us to call it a tropical wave. 92L put on quite a show last night, with the longest-lasting MCC (12 hours) of its lifetime, which blew up east of the center. This has collapsed overnight, as wind shear was just too much to allow the surface center to get underneath and feedback. The center of low-level turning along the wave axis is currently located west of Guadeloupe, moving westward.
Although 92L will likely keep trying periodic burstings of convection east of its wave axis, I expect nothing as large as last night due to its circulation now being completely open, and 92L's chances of development during the next 3 days remain near zero. The TUTT to the west will be keeping strong wind shear over the system during most of its passage across the northern Caribbean. Beyond this point, though, 92L will have to be watched very closely. The system will be skirting southern Hispaniola and Cuba on its way WNW, and will eventually end up in the Gulf of Mexico in 5-6 days. At some point 92L will have to actually bust right through the shear zone and pop out on the other side of the TUTT. This is actually a classic setup for mischief, as it has the look of a situation where you get a tropical wave blowing up as it approaches the TUTT, then gets sheared as it goes under it, and then pops out the other side in an area with light shear and favorable ventilation. The western wide of a TUTT is usually conducive for tropical development, and with all the moisture that 92L is carrying with it, this will be something to watch very closely when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere....the Atlantic is fairly quiet. A very active ITCZ continues across the central and eastern Atlantic, and has formed several areas of low-mid level turning, along with moderate-strong convection. These areas remain poorly organized, although models are hinting that one of these areas may try to spin up into something substantial within the next 5 days. I believe the concern goes even beyond that, and I don't think we've heard the last of the African wave train this month. I can't remember it ever being this active in June, and with all these disturbances trying to spin up within it, it's only a matter of time before one develops. The upper ridge building into the Caribbean behind 92L will be setting the stage with favorable conditions for development, should one of these tropical waves or disturbances try to lift north and move into the Caribbean. I will be monitoring this area.
The Caribbean, with the exception of 92L, is quiet, although some models are hinting that lowering pressures in the western Caribbean over the next 10 days might try to spark the formation of a low. So far there is no hint of anything significant trying to develop, but the area will be watched once the TUTT lifts out in a few days.
Overall, the pattern continues to get more active, as you can tell a lot of these waves coming off of Africa just want to pop and develop, but most are not being given the proper chance yet, which is normal for June. What isn't normal is having this much activity east of the Caribbean, and this is a big sign of some nasty things we will be seeing coming out of the tropical Atlantic this summer. The MJO is now back over our area of the world, and should remain there through early July, enhancing upward motion in the Atlantic. These last 2 weeks of June and the first couple of July could see the real kick-off to the hurricane season with 2 and perhaps 3 named storms by mid-July.
We shall see what happens!
Invest 92L Visible Satellite (click image for loop):
Invest 92L Track Models:
Caribbean/East Pacific Visible Satellite (click image for loop):
Central Atlantic Visible Satellite (click image for loop):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):