Monica to Re-strengthen over Gulf of Carpentaria

By: Levi32 , 3:24 PM GMT on April 19, 2006

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Tropical Cyclone Monica has weakened to a Cat 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. She is currently over the western Cape York Peninsula. Her inner core has suffered badly, and she still has at least 6 hours before she is back over water. She will have 48 hours to regenerate before she makes her second landfall near Nhulunbuy in Arnhem Land on the west side of the Gulf of Carpentaria. It is still possible that Monica will hit cat 3 in the gulf, but chances are lower after how much damage she has sustained so far during her time over land. She is having inner core structure problems and I don't know why. She had the perfect environment leading up to landfall and she will continue to have it in the gulf if not better. It's a complete mystery why she can't seem to form a solid inner structure. If she can get it together in the gulf, then I think she is a guaranteed cat 2 at landfall and maybe a cat 3, but I will try to determine that after Monica has spent a few hours over water. The JTWC only takes her up to 85 knots about 12 hours before landfall, which is borderline cat 1 and cat 2. All the models are forecasting Monica to be stronger in the gulf then she was before her first landfall. We will see what happens once Monica is back over water, and how much damage she has done to the Cape York Peninsula. Here are links and maps regarding Monica:

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion for Monica:

191500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 142.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHEAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBSTANTIAL BREAKDOWN IN CORE CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED RADIAL OUTFLOW. DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 23P WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AS A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 24, THE RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND CAUSE TC 23P TO TRACK NORTHWEST-WARD. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER ONCE TC 23P MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE INFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Discussion for Monica:

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over Cape York Peninsula north of Pormpuraaw are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:50am on Thursday the 20th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for communities on the western half of Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw. The warning is cancelled for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy.

At 2am pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred over land near latitude 13.7 south longitude 142.1 east, 60 kilometres southeast of Aurukun. The cyclone is moving west southwest at about 20 km/hr.

The destructive core of Monica with gusts to 160 km/hr is expected to move off the coast in the general vicinity of Cape Keerweer on Thursday morning. The cyclone is then expected to re-intensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts above 130 km/hr could occur north to Weipa and south to Pormpuraaw.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to move in a general westerly direction across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday. Gales may develop about the Northern Territory coast between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho
Island and Nhulunbuy during Friday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 2am EST Thursday.
Central Pressure : 975 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.7 degrees south
longitude 142.1 degrees east
60 km east southeast of Aurukun
Recent Movement : west southwest about 20 km/hr
Destructive winds : out to 75 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour

Very heavy flooding rain will occur over the Peninsula tonight. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should continue to take the appropriate measures and follow the advice given by authorities.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Cape Keerweer are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the west coast of the Peninsula on
Thursday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow directions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do
so by the authorities.

People in the path of this cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different
direction could resume at any time. Listen to the advice and follow the directions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next warning will be issued by 5 am Thursday.



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica

Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page








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13. theboldman
3:04 AM GMT on April 20, 2006
yum yum have a good dinner
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
12. Levi32
3:01 AM GMT on April 20, 2006
Hey Jeff I really hate to drop in and drop out like this but dinner is on the table and I must go now. Apple Pie for dessert yum!!!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
11. Levi32
2:58 AM GMT on April 20, 2006
Yes once, but lost 2 times.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
10. theboldman
2:50 AM GMT on April 20, 2006
tennis cool did you win?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
9. Levi32
2:49 AM GMT on April 20, 2006
Sorry everyone was playing Tennis all afternoon for the first time this year yay!!! Thanks for the info lemmo. I think that the SW side will fill in eventually. Probably just the dry air and structural problems that Monica is having.

Jeff nice to see you again I am fine got a couple days of school off this week. Lots of sun too and temps rising to near 40 so very nice and spring-like here.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
8. theboldman
11:43 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
hey levi whats up hows school?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
7. lemmo
11:32 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
Great reporting Levi32, it's good to have some info on this for us down'unders amongst all the US/Atlantic stuff! Thanks!

Oz BoM reported very heavy rain in the Cairns area: 133mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning, leading to local flooding and the town dam rapidly rising but thankfully abating before evacuations were required.

The leading SW side of the storm seems to have fragmented. I wonder if this is something to do with the increasing shear over land in the pic above, although Monica is now moving into an area of decreasing shear.
6. Levi32
4:49 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
David, on this radar loop you can see where Monica is on the land and when it will get back over water. Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
5. Levi32
4:37 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
If you click on my link that says "Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica" you can see the different tracks from the different models. Some of them go past the second landfall so you can see where it might go. Also some of the model tracks on the link "Model forecast Tracks and Intensity" go past the second landfall so look there too. My thought is that Monica might parallel the coast, which would be very bad for anyone living there.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
4. DAVIDKRZW
4:34 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
where dos it go from 2 days from now when it is done from its 2nd land fall
3. Levi32
4:27 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
Keep in mind it still has a second landfall coming up in 2 days.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
2. Levi32
4:26 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
David it made landfall late last night and is about 6 hours away from coming back over water.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1. DAVIDKRZW
4:25 PM GMT on April 19, 2006
did i ever made land fall yet

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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