The Atlantic remains fairly quiet this morning. There is an area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas associated with a weak surface low and upper disturbance. This feature will be meandering slowly off to the east and north over the next few days and will be watched, but development is unlikely.
A very intriguing feature is taking shape over Texas this morning. Last night a massive blowup of convection turned into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) over central Texas, and as is typical with such systems, that convection is dying off this morning. Sometimes MCSs are strong enough to form their own circulation underneath, and at that point they become MCVs (Mesoscale Convective Vortex). This system appears to have been an MCV as the dying thunderstorms this morning are revealing a vigorous circulation and surface low WNW of Houston. This system is associated with an upper shortwave trough that is becoming cut-off from the main westerlies, and will be meandering around the Texas coast for the next few days. Should this old MCV move over the water of the northwest gulf, it may try to cause tropical trouble.
Another area I am watching is the eastern Pacific, which actually ties in with the Texas MCV. The area of disturbed weather west of Costa Rica that I have been monitoring is slowly organizing, and has some nice mid-level rotation with it. This feature may try to develop over the next couple days, but what is even more interesting is that a deep-layer high building into the Caribbean over the next few days may steer this energy northwestward into Central America, and possibly across into the Bay of Campeche. Interestingly enough, our MCV may still be sitting in that area during that time, and it will be interesting to see what comes of this.
Elsewhere...the African wave train is still being watched. Dry air is killing convection with the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands, and it appears the axis may have reformed to the east, but it is hard to tell. Regardless, this wave poses no threat for development out in the Atlantic and will continue westward. Two more waves, One over Nigeria and the other over Sudan, are continuing westward across Africa, and will be emerging over the Atlantic within the next two weeks. These waves are a bit farther north than their predecessors, and although we are unlikely to see anything particularly threatening from them out over the Atlantic, they may cause trouble in the Caribbean down the road. Thus, they will continue to be tracked and monitored.
Cyclone Phet, as expected, has weakened on its approach to Oman, and did not become a Cat 5. Dry air entrainment has weakened the storm to what looks like a Cat 2, and this is very good news for Oman, which will see much less of a storm at landfall than what was advertised. Rain will be the biggest problem with this system as it slowly recurves over eastern Oman during the next couple days.
We shall see what happens!
Caribbean/East Pacific Visible Satellite (click image for loop):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):