The Gulf, the Pacific, and African Waves

By: Levi32 , 4:06 PM GMT on June 03, 2010

The Atlantic remains fairly quiet this morning. There is an area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas associated with a weak surface low and upper disturbance. This feature will be meandering slowly off to the east and north over the next few days and will be watched, but development is unlikely.

A very intriguing feature is taking shape over Texas this morning. Last night a massive blowup of convection turned into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) over central Texas, and as is typical with such systems, that convection is dying off this morning. Sometimes MCSs are strong enough to form their own circulation underneath, and at that point they become MCVs (Mesoscale Convective Vortex). This system appears to have been an MCV as the dying thunderstorms this morning are revealing a vigorous circulation and surface low WNW of Houston. This system is associated with an upper shortwave trough that is becoming cut-off from the main westerlies, and will be meandering around the Texas coast for the next few days. Should this old MCV move over the water of the northwest gulf, it may try to cause tropical trouble.





Another area I am watching is the eastern Pacific, which actually ties in with the Texas MCV. The area of disturbed weather west of Costa Rica that I have been monitoring is slowly organizing, and has some nice mid-level rotation with it. This feature may try to develop over the next couple days, but what is even more interesting is that a deep-layer high building into the Caribbean over the next few days may steer this energy northwestward into Central America, and possibly across into the Bay of Campeche. Interestingly enough, our MCV may still be sitting in that area during that time, and it will be interesting to see what comes of this.



Elsewhere...the African wave train is still being watched. Dry air is killing convection with the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands, and it appears the axis may have reformed to the east, but it is hard to tell. Regardless, this wave poses no threat for development out in the Atlantic and will continue westward. Two more waves, One over Nigeria and the other over Sudan, are continuing westward across Africa, and will be emerging over the Atlantic within the next two weeks. These waves are a bit farther north than their predecessors, and although we are unlikely to see anything particularly threatening from them out over the Atlantic, they may cause trouble in the Caribbean down the road. Thus, they will continue to be tracked and monitored.



Cyclone Phet, as expected, has weakened on its approach to Oman, and did not become a Cat 5. Dry air entrainment has weakened the storm to what looks like a Cat 2, and this is very good news for Oman, which will see much less of a storm at landfall than what was advertised. Rain will be the biggest problem with this system as it slowly recurves over eastern Oman during the next couple days.

We shall see what happens!


Caribbean/East Pacific Visible Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):








2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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15. Levi32
5:04 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
When do you think is our next chance for development Levi?


Our only current chances during the next 5 days are either the western gulf or the Bahamas disturbance, which I am not impressed with. If neither goes, it may be another several days before we have something to watch, but chances will be increasing as we go through the month, with African waves starting to come off farther north. The end of the month will be our best chance with the upward MJO moving back over.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
14. Levi32
5:02 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
12z sounding from TX/LA border showing very nice low-level saturation with dry mid-level air over top. Dynamic forcing from the upper feature will probably spark more storms in the area this afternoon/evening.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
13. Hurricanes101
5:01 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
When do you think is our next chance for development Levi?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 9011
12. Levi32
4:53 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
12z GFS still showing some piece of mid-upper energy coming into the BOC from the eastern Pacific. This run dissipates the Texas upper disturbance faster than the last run.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
11. Levi32
4:51 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Quoting TropicalWave:
indeed, guys, lets, levi, did you read my quest?
Quoting TropicalWave:
might something consolidate in the BOC in the coming week, levi?


My blog entry is mostly about that possibility, so yes we will see. It's not particularly highly likely but is something to keep an eye on.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
10. TropicalWave
4:47 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
indeed, guys, lets, levi, did you read my quest?
9. Hurricanes101
4:46 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Well, if anyone wants to talk in here they are certainly welcome.

I am fed up with the main blog as well. Thinking about August/September in there is a nightmare.


Well we all know who are the ones that mainly just talk tropical weather, I suggest you invite them over here to your blog and we can have ourselves a great discussion without having to filter through so much crap
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 9011
8. Levi32
4:45 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Levi I request that we start using your blog along with 456, Draks and StormWs now

because the last few days on the main have been downright pathetic

I also think it is a pain in the neck that we are on a tropical weather blog and I have to filter through 95% of the comments just to see what you are saying

Lets start talking here as of now, if you are up for it


Well, if anyone wants to talk in here they are certainly welcome.

I am fed up with the main blog as well. Thinking about August/September in there is a nightmare.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
7. Hurricanes101
4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Levi I request that we start using your blog along with 456, Draks and StormWs now

because the last few days on the main have been downright pathetic

I also think it is a pain in the neck that we are on a tropical weather blog and I have to filter through 95% of the comments just to see what you are saying

Lets start talking here as of now, if you are up for it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 9011
6. seflagamma
4:34 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Hi Levi,

Thanks for the update! so much going on everywhere. Oh boy!

Enjoy your day.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 309 Comments: 41110
5. Levi32
4:31 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Thanks Levi. It was rocking hard here about 6 this morning! Mother Nature was making herself heard loud and clear. Wow! Haven't heard thunder boomers like that in a while. :)


Wow how fun :) I bet....they looked really big on satellite last night before I went to bed.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
4. Levi32
4:30 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Levi, I think that may have been the scenario the long-range GFS had

Remember about a week ago for a few runs it had a system in the NW Gulf?
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Levi, I think that may have been the scenario the long-range GFS had

Remember about a week ago for a few runs it had a system in the NW Gulf?


Well I don't want to give the GFS that much credit lol. No model detected this surface low before the MCV formed, because it was a mesoscale feature.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
3. TropicalWave
4:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
might something consolidate in the BOC in the coming week, levi?
2. Hurricanes101
4:20 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Levi, I think that may have been the scenario the long-range GFS had

Remember about a week ago for a few runs it had a system in the NW Gulf?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 9011
1. homelesswanderer
4:18 PM GMT on June 03, 2010
Thanks Levi. It was rocking hard here about 6 this morning! Mother Nature was making herself heard loud and clear. Wow! Haven't heard thunder boomers like that in a while. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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