Tropical Storm Andres threatens Mexico; watching for Atlantic mischief

By: Levi32 , 5:16 PM GMT on June 22, 2009

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Andres Update 5:30pm eastern time:

High-resolution visible loop of Andres and BOC system

Andres doesn't seem to have changed much since this morning. Estimated overall forward motion is towards the NW at 4kts, but motion has been erratic since this morning due to weak steering currents between the upper high over the southern US and the upper trough over California. Andres has been trying to form an eye structure throughout the afternoon with little success, but the system exhibits a nice CDO with tight curved convective banding. Upper-level outflow remains well-established in the SW quadrant, and also in the SE quadrant with outflow being enhanced by the upper trough in the western Caribbean. Outflow is severely limited to the north due to Andres' proximity to an upper-level low over central Mexico. Andres is not over an area of particularly high ocean heat content and SSTs drop off rapidly west of 105W on Andres' current trajectory.

Due to these factors and Andres' forecasted proximity to the Mexican coast over the next 2 days, I don't expect more than a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at peak intensity. Hurricane warnings have been posted for portions of the Mexican coastline. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.



Tropical Tidbit from 1:30pm EDT Monday, June 22, 2009:

Here's my 3rd video:

Turn up the volume, and click HD if the quality is too low:



Tropical Storm Andres:

The east Pacific finally has its first named storm of the season. Andres is sitting just SW of Guerrero, Mexico, and if he gets any closer to the coast it could limit his intensification. This would be good for Mexico as Andres is in an environment favorable for intensification into a Cat 1 hurricane. Andres is embedded in a weak steering flow on the SW side of the upper high sitting over Louisiana. This flow will take Andres slowly towards the NW and likely very close to the Mexican coast of Colima and Jalisco through Wednesday. This slow motion will mean lots of rainfall along the coastline, with the GFS forecasting a total of 6-10 inches as a general rule for these areas. The NHC forecasts Andres to become a minimal hurricane just off the coast of Jalisco in 36 hours before land interaction weakens it back to a tropical storm. I have doubts about this forecast if the track is as close to land as the NHC is forecasting. Regardless, rain will be the primary issue with this system, and for mountainous countries like Mexico slow-moving tropical cyclones near the coast can be nightmares.

Atlantic:

It's still pretty quiet in the Atlantic which is typical for June. Andres' competing circulation from last night has moved into the Bay of Campeche, and looks impressive for the moment but I doubt it will amount to much. When you have a strong system just to the SW of Mexico like Andres it's hard to get anything going near the Yucatan or BOC because the east Pacific system takes most of the energy. However, it is a fairly small system and wouldn't require very much energy to get a closed circulation going. If I were the NHC I would be mentioning this in the TWO today. I will be keeping a close eye on it.

I've seen some talk of a system near the Bahamas developing along the cold front east of Florida. A low will probably form, but it will not be tropical. Why? Because there's too much of a baroclinic zone, meaning that heat is being transported not consolidated. That is the basis of a cold-core system. There is no leeway for sub-tropical development either. For that you need a symmetric system, but this will be asymmetric.

The tail-end of the same front mentioned above is forecast to spawn an area of low pressure over the northern gulf coast during the next couple days, and as this happens the trough off the US east coast will be splitting, leaving a piece behind in the central Gulf of Mexico. This will try to pull the surface low SW over the gulf and we'll have to watch this to see if it tries to get something going. The GFS is still trying to bring a low NW out of the Caribbean in 4-5 days but as usual is too fast with it. We will have to watch for activity there though as the upper anticyclone builds over top of the area in 4-6 days. If anything these invasions into the GOM and Caribbean are signifying the northward push of moisture from the eastern Pacific in association with the MJO pulse that I've been talking about for several weeks, and if you remember I said there was a strong possibility of a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche during this time, and today we have one =)

We shall see what happens!



Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)





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11. Levi32
12:45 AM GMT on June 23, 2009
High-Resolution visible loop of Andres and the Bay of Campeche

Andres' forward motion appears to have slightly increased towards the NW making it easier to see on satellite loops. I'm seeing hints of an eye-wall structure trying to develop within the recent burst of deep convection, but nothing well-defined yet.

Microwave imagery from 4 hours ago shows the main feeder band starting to wrap around the center:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
10. Levi32
10:31 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. No problem there. I'm not wishing to move to Alaska! I get all the Alaska I need out of my system every year watching Deadliest Catch And this year the Ice Road Truckers are there. Yikes I don't know how they do either of those jobs. We were caught in 4 foot waves in our little 16 ft boat. And that was terrible. I can't imagine 40 foot waves strong enough to sink those big boats! Lol. I guess I better stay down here. :) That loop of the BOC system looks like it wants to spin up. Even if its in mid levels. Oh well hope it brings rains to my neighbors to the south. :)


I don't know how they do it either. My family goes against the grain here and doesn't fish, and I can't imagine having a job like the ones on "Deadliest Catch".

Yeah it would be nice for south Texas if this thing spun some moisture up that way, but I think it's going to be pushed inland over Mexico before it has a chance :(
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
9. homelesswanderer
10:19 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks. Lol yeah I'm sure every single person in Florida would gladly trade places with me right now. Be careful what you wish for though it gets awful cold in the winter :) You have a great day as well.


Lol. No problem there. I'm not wishing to move to Alaska! I get all the Alaska I need out of my system every year watching Deadliest Catch And this year the Ice Road Truckers are there. Yikes I don't know how they do either of those jobs. We were caught in 4 foot waves in our little 16 ft boat. And that was terrible. I can't imagine 40 foot waves strong enough to sink those big boats! Lol. I guess I better stay down here. :) That loop of the BOC system looks like it wants to spin up. Even if its in mid levels. Oh well hope it brings rains to my neighbors to the south. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
8. Levi32
7:51 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Great update Levi. My husband and I were just watching your home town on TV. They were halibut and king salmon fishing. We considered moving to Alaska. I told my husband I'd only have to leave him for about six months out of the year. Lol. I guess we'll just stay here and broil. :) Since it looks like we'll be the last to cool off. Have a great day.


Thanks. Lol yeah I'm sure every single person in Florida would gladly trade places with me right now. Be careful what you wish for though it gets awful cold in the winter :) You have a great day as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
7. homelesswanderer
7:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Great update Levi. My husband and I were just watching your home town on TV. They were halibut and king salmon fishing. We considered moving to Alaska. I told my husband I'd only have to leave him for about six months out of the year. Lol. I guess we'll just stay here and broil. :) Since it looks like we'll be the last to cool off. Have a great day.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
6. InTheCone
6:35 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Thanks for the update - Great Job!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
5. Levi32
5:39 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
4. RENONV
5:33 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Thanks for the up date Levi.
Member Since: July 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
3. Levi32
5:30 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Thanks futuremet.

Good morning to you too GR. Yeah BOC blob has little room and time. It's hard to call these tiny things as they can wind up fast like Marco in 2005, but I don't think this one will develop.

Ah I can't imagine living in LA right now....I would melt! I hope you get a cool off too...though it might not be for a while..
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
2. GetReal
5:26 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Good morning to you Levi... I do believe that the swirl over the extreme SW BOC is going to soon run out of time, and water.... No time to develop further.... That surface high over the north central Gulf is shoving that WNW into Mexico.


I'm not buying into that last GFS model run...

I do hope to get rain someday soon in Se La. It is HOT and dry!!!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
1. futuremet
5:20 PM GMT on June 22, 2009
Great job Levi

I can't make video today, but will probably make one tomorrow
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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