Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 3:53 PM GMT on August 04, 2008
My apologies, been busy last couple days so haven't been able to post...
TS Edouard is now accelerating on a westward track towards the Texas coast. The system was struggling a lot yesterday due to dry air entrainment and northerly shear. The dry air is getting mixed out this morning as new convection fires near the COC. The shear is still there, but it is light at around 10kts. Until this morning the COC was completely exposed due to this shear, but now convection is trying to wrap around the center. The upper-level environment is improving, but it is not exactly ideal. An upper high to the NW of Edouard is severely inhibiting outflow on the west and north sides, and is the cause of the northerly wind shear. However, an ULL in the Caribbean is greatly enhancing Ed's outflow channel to the southeast, and for the moment is providing plenty of upper-level divergence. That means that enough air is getting pulled out of the top of Ed to allow more air to enter in the bottom without piling up, hence lowering the air pressure. I expect Ed to begin a steady strengthening phase today, but with only 30 hours left over water, it will be difficult for him to attain hurricane status. Systems of this nature have the ability to ramp up very quickly due to their small size, but since Edouard took so long to get his act together, I am forecasting his peak intensity to be 60kts(70mph).
Where's he going? That's pretty easy (phew!!)....for once. All the models are in good agreement on the upper high to the north of Edouard steering him to the west today, gradually turning WNW as he rounds the southern periphery of the high. I am in close agreement with the NHC track forecast, and I'm forecasting Edouard to make landfall at or just north of Galveston, Texas as a 60kt tropical storm, with the "cone of error" between Freeport, TX and midway between Galveston and Port Arthur. Please keep in mind that I am not an official meteorologist of any kind and you should listen to the NHC and your local weather office for any instructions. Residents of the Houston area should also prepare for hurricane conditions as Edouard will be near borderline hurricane strength at landfall.
We shall see what happens!
Edouard warnings/watches and forecast track:
Edouard radar loop:
Edouard visible satellite:
^Click for loop^
Edouard forecast model tracks:
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
Our other 2 invests pretty much fizzled, and there's nothing else much to watch at the moment. There is another wave off Africa that may need to be monitored, and a couple more will be coming off in the next 2 weeks. Keep in mind this is still the downward phase of the MJO, so it's actually pretty impressive to have all this activity right now. Mid-late August things will really start to crank up and we'll hit the real deal this season. For now keep your eyes on the gulf, Caribbean, and western Atlantic for development. What about the eastern Atlantic?? ......nah...too many problems for the Cape Verde systems right now...but they will try to sneak under the high and develop once they pop out on the other side, so make sure to watch those too.
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