TS Dean and Invest 91L

By: Levi32 , 4:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2007

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Tuesday Morning:

TD 4 has finally strengthened into TS Dean this morning. The upgrade was prompted by a slight increase in organization from last night and a small CDO over the center. However most of the convection remains in the SW quadrant of the storm and easterly shear will continue to bombard it for a couple of days. After that slow steady strengthening should begin, and Dean should be a hurricane before reaching the Antilles Islands. Track is by far the most pressing issue with this storm, and it is far from certain. The GFS, after driving Dean into Mexico with several runs in a row, has now come back north bringing Dean north of or over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and threatening the SE coast of the US. Most of the models have shifted to the right with the last couple runs, forecasting a weaker Atlantic ridge. The strength of this ridge and the penetration of a trough forecasted to come off the east coast in a few days will be crucial to the future path of Dean. Anywhere from Brownsville to Hatteras and all surrounding areas could be at risk. Another key will be if Dean get severely weakened by moving over the big Caribbean islands. An undisturbed Dean will probably be a major hurricane moving towards the coast, but we could be dealing with only a Cat 1-2 if Hispaniola or Cuba rip it up a bit. Bottom line this needs to be watched by all interests in the western Atlantic Ocean and we have plenty of time to speculate. Residents in the Antilles Islands should be preparing for a Cat 1-3 hurricane in 3-4 days.

Turning our attention closer to home, we will probably have TD 5 form out of Invest 91L in the southern GOM this afternoon. The disturbance now has a nicely defined surface circulation evident on visible imagery. All the convection is currently NE of the center, partially due to the fact that the center is very close to the Yucatan. Models are currently bringing this system close to the Texas/Mexico border, and interests in that area should prepare for heavy rains and TS winds with this. I don't expect this system to have time to wind up before it makes landfall. Given 3-4 days this thing could be a serious hurricane, but it only has 48 hours at most over water and I expect the worst this will become is a 50-knot TS. This will be a large storm, heavy on the east side, and the main threat will be very heavy rains and flooding in its path. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should keep a watchful eye on this over the next couple days.

We shall see what happens!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 000
ABNT20 KNHC 141517 CCA
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...CORRECTED FOR DAY...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM DEAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1490 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTAL AREAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE PROMPTLY REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Invest 91L:



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4. GetReal
2:13 PM GMT on August 15, 2007
Good morning to you Levi!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8896
3. Levi32
2:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2007
AKSnow - Yes :) Finally some tropical action! Lets just hope nobody comes to harm's way. My mom is doing much better, thank you for asking. She still has a small tube in her eye connecting her upper and lower tear ducts, which will have to be removed in a couple weeks. That won't be to nice of an experience and it will probably set her off again for a couple days, but until then she's getting better :)

Hey Red!! Good to see you too!

Well I think visitors have enough blogs to look at without seeing my big long posts lol. Thanks for the compliment :) I'm still doing some homeschool through the summer, and I will be starting a couple classes at the public high school when school starts, which won't be for another 2 weeks.

Have a great day guys =)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
2. Redhead
5:20 AM GMT on August 15, 2007
{{{Levi}}} Good to see you! Your blog needs to be kept up at the top with the other hurricane bloggers. I know from lurking a long time that your input is valuable! How is school? Or have you started back yet?
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
1. AKSnowLuvr
3:33 AM GMT on August 15, 2007
Finally, some weather to talk about! :) Thank you for all the information... can't wait to see what the second half of the season will throw at us.
Have a good day!
BTW... how's your mom doing? I trust she's fully recovered?
Member Since: December 26, 2006 Posts: 278 Comments: 1251

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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