Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 8:41 PM GMT on February 28, 2007
Wednesday update 3pm eastern:
A near repeat of last week's severe weather outbreak over the plains will begin tonight. The only big difference between the two is that the severe weather with this system will cover a much larger area. An upper trough will move into the plains this afternoon, causing cyclogenesis over northern Texas, with a warm front forming through southern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms will begin to develop late tonight along the dryline which will set up over Texas extending north through Oklahoma and SE Kansas. T-storms will also get going along the warm frontal boundary. These storms shouldn't get too severe tonight, due to the main activity taking place during diurnal cooling, and jet stream cirrus have already limited daytime heating over the western gulf coast states today. The SPC has a moderate risk area over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas for tonight, with a fairly large risk for tornadoes. There will be plenty of directional shear for the formation of tornadoes with a very strong jet moving into the plains, along with a good low-level jet bringing plenty of moisture northwards. Dew points will be even higher than with the last outbreak, with 60+ values making it all the way up to SE Kansas and southern Missouri. The deep moisture will also cover a bigger area with this system. Once again convective activity will be limited somewhat by cool temperatures tonight, but some storms will still become very dangerous.
By tomorrow morning things will really be heating up over Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. Instability will be peaking at that time, and the low will be deepening rapidly over northern Missouri. This low is a fast mover, and will already be moving into southern Wisconsin at peak intensity tomorrow night. Throughout the afternoon tomorrow storms will spread east across Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama. Some severe storms will even make it as far north as Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky. The SPC has a moderate risk area tomorrow covering the entire southeast except Florida, which should once again escape with just a few isolated severe storms. The storms should gradually start to decrease in intensity once they get into Georgia and South Carolina, but the SPC has a moderate risk for those areas as well. Instability will decrease the farther east you go, so I expect that the tornado threat will be greatly lessened for these areas.
Once again this system has the potential to be an explosive outbreak, depending on how much daytime heating we get tomorrow. This is probably a more significant outbreak than last week's, and also a much bigger one, so be careful everybody.
We shall see what happens!
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