Helene and Gordon Eat Fish

By: Levi32 , 7:42 PM GMT on September 14, 2006

Introducing "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra" version 2.0!

LOL it's time for a change. My blog structure up till now (version 1.0 if you will) has been littered with images and lengthly discussions. The images in particular have I'm sure made it very rough on dial-up users, and for that I apologize. My new blog structure will consist of only a couple small images, which shouldn't tax dial-up too hard. The new format will also feature shorter, more compact discussions by me, instead of the big long ones I'm used to writing. This will mean less typing for me, and less reading time for you. :) Overall I hope to make my blog more "user friendly." My blog is open to anyone who wishes to discuss the weather, particularly the tropics during summer. Nothing is too crazy for me. I've been kinda known for "dreaming up the impossible" with storms. ;) So please feel free to stop by and share your opinions and questions! Here is this afternoon's update on the tropics:
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Hurricane Gordon:

Gordon still has an impressive look to it this afternoon with a beautiful 20 mile-wide eye winking at us. As Gordon moves closer to the trough to the northwest SW shear is starting to affect it. I think Gordon has reached peak intensity at a 120mph Cat 3, and should start a weakening trend by tonight. Gordon will continue to curve NE out to sea, and is no threat to any land.

^Click for Loop^

RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Gordon

WV Loop of Gordon

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Gordon

Latest Global model runs for Gordon (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)
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Tropical Storm Helene:

Helene isn't as organized as last night. All the convection is a fragmented mess, although the center of circulation is now more in the middle of it, which shows the shear is lessening. There are two possibilities of where Helene will go. One follows the GFS, GFDL, BAM models which take Helene NW towards a forecasted weakness in the ridge to the north. These models rapidly dissipate the ridge and allow Helene to recurve into the trough which will be passing by to the north. The UKMET and NOGAPS models show the second option, which brings Helene WNW all the way to NE of the Antilles Islands before recurving. In my opinion this is the more likely scenario because the pattern favors a stronger ridge in the central Atlantic. However even if Helene slips the first trough, it will hit a brick wall at 50-55w. The trough off the eastern seaboard is holding fast, and all storms which form east of that line and come north of the Antilles will have a hard time getting past that trough. There is still a remote possibility that Helene makes it to the east coast. There are ways, such as slowing down NE of the islands and the trough slips by to the north, and then the trough off the eastern seaboard either splits or lifts out allowing Helene to make a move further west. It is very unlikely, and I expect Helene to recurve, but keep an eye open anyway. As far as intensity goes, Helene will have a tough time organizing due to her size. I expect Helene will gradually strengthen to a hurricane Saturday night, and intensification after that to a Cat 2 or 3 is possible. Again I think the track shown by the UKMET and NOGAPS models is what Helene will take.

^Click for Loop^

RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Helene

WV Loop of Helene

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Helene

Latest Global model runs for Helene (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)

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Tropical Disturbances:

The tropical wave which entered the Caribbean last night is now void of convection and is still being sheared. It is currently no threat for development but everything should be watched in the Caribbean this time of year.

The Gulf of Mexico disurbance has dissipated, but with all these old fronts sitting there over that warm water, keep an eye open for home-brew development here late in the season.

The little curly-Q southeast of the front off the eastern seaboard is not a threat to develop, but it will enhance the rain in New England, which will add to the flooding problems in that area.
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We shall see what happens!

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National Hurricane Center

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North Atlantic WV Loop (The BIG Picture)

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2. Levi32
7:47 PM GMT on September 14, 2006
Ah yes Nash I see we are in agreement. I agree that the models erode the ridge too quickly.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
1. nash28
7:45 PM GMT on September 14, 2006
Well said Levi. You and I are on the same page as far as track. Take a look at my update.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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