Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Ingrid not dead yet; possible Florida development?

Posted by: Levi32, 2:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2007

Despite the fact that Ingrid is labeled as "officially dissipated", there is still a spin and t-storms left behind that cannot be wrote off until they are absorbed into an extratropical feature. Wind shear remains at 30+ knots, but will quiet down to 10 knots in a couple days, which just might allow Ingrid to try to regenerate as he nears the Bahamas.

Closer to home, there is a disturbed area of t-storms just east of Florida which I believe will get labeled an invest today. Close-up visible loop does show a spin east of Miami, although it is not yet showing up well on radar due to the lack of precipitation close to the center. This is not a fully tropical low, and will probably be a slow developer. Most models are taking this feature west over Florida and into the eastern GOM under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure forecasted to build over the western Atlantic and GOM this week. The tracks diverge greatly after this, and this system has the potential to affect anywhere from northern Mexico to the Florida panhandle. This should be watched closely over the next few days.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

Atlantic Models

Navy Tropical Cyclone Page

National Hurricane Center

NASA High-resolution GOES Satellite Imagery

CIMSS Saharan Air Layer Analysis

METEOSAT Satellite Imagery (Updated every hour)

North Atlantic WV Loop (The Big Picture)

Updated: 2:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2007

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TD 8 and TD 9

Posted by: Levi32, 3:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2007

TD 8 and TD 9 formed at the same time this morning. The one to be most concerned about at the moment is TD 9, which is very close to home.

TD 9 has formed a well-defined surface circulation and a nice blow-up of convection over the center. Radar out of Houston shows some nice tight banding around the center and a clear strengthening look. The Recon plane is in TD 9 right now and should provide some more detail on the exact intensity, but I think they will find TS Humberto. TD 9 may have an erratic track over the next 48 hours. The general consensus of the models is to move TD 9 slowly northeast inland over western Louisiana towards a trough which will be cutting across the midwest in a couple days. The GFS and GFDL do not swing TD 9 out with the trough, however. They have TD 9 spending lots of time over the southern US, which would be a great relief to the ongoing drought, and then looping back out over the GOM in a few days. The steering pattern is very messy right now, but the most likely solution in the short term is a landfall on the eastern Texas or western Louisiana coast somewhere in the next 36 hours. The intensity of this system at landfall will be determined mainly by how much time it gets over water. At this point I believe TD 9 will only be able to strengthen into a 50 knot TS before landfall, but the potential is there for rapid feed-back into a Cat 1 if the convective burst persists. Interests in these areas should watch TD 9 closely.

TD 8 has formed in the same area that Dean did, and has a similar strengthening environment. The circulation is still elongated and easterly shear has exposed the LLC to the east of the convection, but with time I believe it will organize. We're still waiting for some of the main model runs to come out, but the NHC forecasts TD 8 to move on a general NW course well north of the Antilles islands through day 5. Will the strong Atlantic ridge that has dominated all summer hold to steer TD 8 west towards the United States? Time will tell, but at the moment we have more things to worry about closer to home.

We shall see what happens!
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TD 9:

^Click for loop^

TD 8:

^Click for loop^

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

Atlantic Models

Navy Tropical Cyclone Page

National Hurricane Center

NASA High-resolution GOES Satellite Imagery

CIMSS Saharan Air Layer Analysis

METEOSAT Satellite Imagery (Updated every hour)

North Atlantic WV Loop (The Big Picture)

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Gabrielle moves closer to shore; 3 invests to watch.

Posted by: Levi32, 4:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2007

Hey guys. I regret that I couldn't post for the last half of Hurricane Dean's life or Hurricane Felix, but things have been really busy around here. Today we have a few tropical areas to be concerned about. Firstly TS Gabrielle is nearing the NC coast. This system is still very poorly organized and doesn't have much time to strengthen further. I believe a 55mph TS is the most North Carolina will see out of this one.

Three separate invests were labeled this morning at the same time. Invest 90L, located in the southern GOM north of the Yucatan channel, is a disorganized area of t-storms which may have a chance to develop after wind shear lightens up over the area. This system will be moving NW towards the Texas gulf coast and residents in Texas and Louisiana should watch this system. Invest 91L, located west of the Cape Verde islands in the central Atlantic, is another disorganized area of t-storms with a ragged and elongated circulation shown by QuikScat. This system is under only 10 knots of shear and should remain that way for the next few days. Given time I think this will develop into a TD. A trough to the north may direct 91L on a more northwesterly course in a couple days. Our third system, Invest 92L, is just northeast of the Antilles Islands this morning. QuikScat shows nothing more than a weak wave, but there is evidence of a circulation trying to form. The system is quite small, with a small cluster of thunderstorms over the "center". This system should also be closely watched as it moves WNW towards the Bahamas.

None of the reliable global computer models develop any of these disturbances, but considering that we are in the middle of the peak of the hurricane season all blobs should be watched closely.

We shall see what happens!

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Invest 90L:

^Click for loop^

Invest 91L:

^Click for loop^

Invest 92L:

^Click for loop^

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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