Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Helene Recurves, 96L May do the Same

By: Levi32, 10:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006

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Hurricane Helene and Invest 96L:

Helene is weakening and recurving east of Bermuda. Helene will not be a threat to any land. Convection is warming and the core of Helene is steadily disinigrating. If she accomplished anything, it was becoming the second major hurricane of the season.

Invest 96L hasn't changed much in organization the last couple days. Convection is scanty, although the system still has a well-defined surface circulation. Models are now recurving this, but I'm a bit skeptical. The models will most likely keep flipping around. They have made one big shift but that doesn't mean there won't be another one. Also the pattern supports a more zonal flow over the Atlantic with a bigger ridge underneath. This system was supposed to be the first in a long line of African waves that develop later instead of sooner and come all the way across. This could still happen, but it is of course way too far out to make a determination. However the next wave in line over Africa will make it close to the Caribbean in about a week or so.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

NONE! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Updated: 10:24 PM GMT on September 21, 2006

Permalink

New Invest, Next Threat

By: Levi32, 2:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2006

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Hurricane Helene and Tropical Storm Gordon:

Gordon is now a tropical storm and has passed the Azores. Gordon will bring hurricane-force gusts from Spain to England and France on Friday. Hurricane Helene is now a Cat 2 with winds of 110mph and will not strengthen again. Helene has begun to recurve to the north, east of Bermuda, and will not be a threat to anyone. A couple models have her hitting the Azores like Gordon did, but that's a long shot.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

The tropical wave off Africa has been labled Invest 96L this morning. This will be the next threat to be a landfalling storm. 96L will not develop so fast as the other African waves, and will wait to develop until further west. This will be the first of a fairly long line of African waves that will move under the ridge instead of recurving. This particular one will get close or into the Caribbean in several days. Another one still over Africa may make it to the U.S. east coast in 3 weeks. This will be an interesting couple weeks to watch with these waves coming across, and some into the Caribbean, which is getting ready to heat up.

Thunderstorm activity in the southern Bay of Campeche continues to flare up, with nothing really organized yet, but the old front to the north continues to drift south. Once again this area should be watched for home-grown development this time of year. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Updated: 7:34 PM GMT on September 20, 2006

Permalink

Helene to Recurve

By: Levi32, 2:44 PM GMT on September 19, 2006

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Hurricane Helene:

Helene is maintaining a steady intensity at minimal Cat 3 with winds of 115mph. She is moving W-WNW, and by tomorrow will make her turn to the north. Some strengthening is possible as long as Helene remains over warm SSTs and low shear, but shear is foreecasted to increase and SSTs will drop, so her window of strengthening is limited to the next 24-48 hours. I am forecasting Helene to remain at her current intensity, give or take 5 knots, for the next 2 days, before weakening sets in. With all the models in agreement, Helene will recurve, and odds of her hitting the U.S. are now less than 1 in 100. Helene will be another fun storm to watch as she passes well east of Bermuda and will be no threat to any land.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

An area of thunderstorms which has been smoldering in the SW Caribbean continues to hang out, and could drift northwest during the next several days. We will watch the Caribbean closely over the next few weeks, because we are entering the time of year when late-season development in that area starts occuring.

A complex situation is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. An old front with the remnants of Hurricane Lane entrained in it is sinking south into the northern gulf. A tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche is sparking thunderstorms, and with another wave possibly coming out of the Caribbean to join the party, we may have something developing out of this in a few days. Once again keep an eye on the gulf at all times since this is the time of year for home-grown development in that area as well.
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Permalink

Hurricane Helene

By: Levi32, 7:18 PM GMT on September 18, 2006

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Hurricane Helene:

Helene has begun her turn west, and is in fact already moving WNW. The turn has occured at about 24n, which will be a crucial figure later on. I epxect Helene to continue on a W to WSW track until about 60w, where the second trough coming off the eastern seaboard will begin to pull on her. I am forecasting her to recurve out to sea just east of Bermuda. Most of the models are now in agreement on this except a few. There is still a 1 in 10 chance that the ridge builds over top and this comes west and affects the U.S., but it is not likely. However after Helene is gone the ridge will build across the entire Atlantic, paving the way for more African waves to make it all the way across in the coming weeks. The first one is already off the African coast and will develop in 5-7 days.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

A tropical wave off the African coast is looking very disorganized and has little thunderstorm activity with it. However this is a big threat to develop further west and could make it all the way across the Atlantic to the United States in two weeks. Some models are already developing this system, so we will keep an eye on it in the coming days.
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Updated: 7:19 PM GMT on September 18, 2006

Permalink

Helene Still a Mystery

By: Levi32, 2:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2006

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Hurricane Helene:

Helene now has sustained winds of 125mph, a pressure of 954mb, and is moving NW(310) at 9mph as of the 11am advisory from the NHC. The eye continues to look impressive, as does the outflow in all quadrants except the west where it is a little flat looking due to an upper low to the NW. I still think Helene will challenge Cat 4 status later today or tonight before shear picks up, if she moves north. Helene has apparently begun her turn west. After moving almost due north overnight, Helene is now moving slightly west of northwest, and I expect her to curve around to the WSW in chorus with the models during the next two days. By that time the second trough will be coming off the eastern seaboard. The strength of this trough and the ridge south of it will be crucial, as will be Helene's exact latitude in determining her future. Most of the models including the GFS turn Helene northward into this trough and eventually recurve her, however it should be noted that some models stall Helene in the process, almost like Gordon did a few days ago. The GFS stalls her for almost 2 days near Bermuda before finally kicking her out. The UKMET is the left-most model which turns Helene westward a second time and doesn't recurve her into the second trough. The NOGAPS is kinda in between, trapping Helene under the ridge at 30n at the end of the run, and the third trough would probably pick up Helene in that situation. Well there you have it. The next 48-72 hours will be crucial in determining Helene's future track.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

NONE!
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Permalink

Hurricane Helene Strengthens

By: Levi32, 4:33 AM GMT on September 18, 2006

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Hurricane Helene:

Helene has strengthened into the second major hurricane of the 2006 hurricane season. With sustained winds of 115mph and a pressure of 962mb, Helene has become a bit stronger than the NHC thought a couple days ago. A well-defined clear eye has developed with a ring of strong convection around it. Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, especially in the east. Current motion is more NNW now, but this should only be temporary. The environment around and ahead of Helene favors more strenghening for the next 2 days before shear is forecasted to affect it. Once again shear will only be a factor if Helene moves to the north. If she goes south she will continue to strengthen. I think Helene will reach Cat 4 status sometime tomorrow, but the intensity forecast past that is very shaky right now due to track issues. The model spread is as wide as ever tonight. The GFDL and EWCMF are still stubborn on recurving Helene into trough number one. The 0z GFS is just coming out, up to 120 hours. So far it looks like it is recurving Helene just east of Bermuda, but on the verge of getting blocked by the high. The UKMET has now joined the GFS camp as well bringing Helene west toward the SE coast. This will be a touchy situation. Within 24 hours Helene will make a turn to the west or WSW. Then as trough number two passes by to the north, Helene will get pulled WNW-NW again for a time. The key will be how far north she gets before trough number three arrives. The latest GFS seems to be recurving Helene into trough number two, but just barely before the high squeezes her off. On previous runs the high did squeeze her off and directed her a little further west before trough number three picked her up for good. A lot of things are possible in this situation. Remember how Gordon acted up when the ridge caught him? He sat there for over 2 days, and he is just now starting to move again. This could happen with Helene as well. If she gets squeezed off just as the second trough is about to grab her, she could sit there and let traffic go by before moving again, and that movement could be towards the west. All this will mainly depend on the exact position of Helene when trough number two passes by to the north. Right now we can only watch and wait.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

Invest 95L was labled today east of Maryland. This sytem is basically an upper-level low trying to come down to the surface. Personally I don't think this is any threat to develop, and will be carried out to sea by the the next trough anyway.
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Permalink

Hurricane Helene/WUHOUNDS

By: Levi32, 12:37 AM GMT on September 18, 2006

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Hurricane Helene:

Helene is continueing to intensify this afternoon with a well-developed eye on satellite imagery. Strong convection surrounds the eye and outflow still looks good on all sides. A P-3 Aircraft flying in the area was able to get two fixes on Helene and found a minimum pressure of 970mb and max flight-level winds of 111 knots. This is getting close to Cat 3 intensity. Helene's motion is now more NW-NNW, but she is slowing down, which may signify that the expected turn to the west may occur soon. The 18z GFS hasn't changed much from the 12z run, recurving Helene into trough number three well east of the U.S.. The UKMET has shifted closer to the GFS solution now, but the GFDL and CMC remain as stubborn as ever about the recurve into the first trough. Intensity-wise I think Helene is well on her way to Cat 3 or 4. If Helene takes the northerly path wind shear will weaken her, but if the GFS, UKMET, and BAM models are correct, a ridge will continue to build over top and Helene should continue strengthening or hold intensity. Right now I am not ready to make a forecast of whether Helene hits the U.S. or recurves out. I'll wait until tomorrow to make my first forecast. Tonight's model runs should be interesting.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean and Central America is sparking thunderstorms over a large area. No area of defined low pressure exists yet, but as this sytem gradually drifts northwest, it could have a shot at developing in the NW Caribbean during the next couple days. Remember it is this time of year that we start looking for development in the gulf and Caribbean. Regardless if this develops or not, heavy rainfall totals will drench Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Mexico.
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Updated: 2:13 AM GMT on September 18, 2006

Permalink

Introducing WUHOUNDS

By: Levi32, 3:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2006

Attention all bloggers! An idea has popped into my head to start a new group at WU. It's kind of like WUBA, but different. If you remember how WUBA started, you know that a handful of bloggers got sick and tired of the bickering and bashing that went around in Dr. Masters' blog. They seperated into their own little group, and slowly it grew and grew until now it's a whole community! They are set apart, tightly bound together, and don't have to deal with the punks in Masters' blog anymore. So, I've been thinking about starting a new group of forecasters which will seperate from Dr. Masters' blog. The bickering in there grows with each passing day, and lately a few of us have gotten really sick and tired of it, and have been hanging in our own blogs to discuss the weather. So, I am starting our own group of people who devote their blogs to weather updates, and who are tired of dealing with Dr. Masters' blog. I think I have a name for it, WUHOUNDS(Inspired by Lovethetropics) Because just as a hound searches and doesn't give up until he has sniffed out and treed his prey, so would we sniff out the truth and find the right forecast for every situation, not giving up until we have found an answer. What do you think? I'm open to any suggestions that anyone may have. I'm a little nervous about this, but I think it will work. Please refer to my previous blog for this morning's update on Hurricane Helene.

Updated: 5:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2006

Permalink

Helene Still a Threat

By: Levi32, 3:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2006

Hurricane Helene:

Helene continues to strengthen this morning, now up to a Cat 2 as of the 11am advisory from the NHC with sustained winds of 105mph, a minimum pressure of 970mb, and movement NW(305) at 10mph. Helene is an odd looking beast this morning with a very large eye, which is still a little ragged, but a solid ring of convection surrounds it. Outflow is still improving in all quadrants except to the west, where it is slightly restricted. Once again the main problem is track. The models haven't come to an agreement yet, and as I expected the GFS is jumping around from run to run. The 6z run now recurves Helene into trough number three very close to Bermuda. The difference between this run and the previous two was that the GFS stalled Helene for three days between 60w and 65w after trough number two passed by to the north. Helene then just sits there until trough number three picks her up. Now, in the 18z run of yesterday, the ridge to the north built in enough that after trough two Helene kept moving west and didn't stall. Therefore by the time trough three came along, Helene was already near Florida. In the 6z run, Helene stalls for three days, giving the third trough enough time to get there and recurve Helene before nearing the U.S.. This slowing of Helene indicates that the GFS is a little shaky on this scenario. In this case Helene could go either way. When a tropical system is caught in the middle, it slows down. So this particular run is not a solid solution given the stalling for three days. I expect the GFS will continue to bounce around with each run. So now we have to consider not just the ridges and troughs, but Helene's forward motion as well, as it will play a big role in her future track as well. As for intensity, I expect Helene to gradually strengthen into a major hurricane tomorrow. The NHC has been saying that the models forecast shear to increase and weaken Helene back to Cat 1-2. This is possible, IF Helene follows their track. If Helene decides to take the westward track that the GFS says, there will be no shear and she could strengthen to a Cat 4. Well there is certainly a lot to be confused about this morning.:) With the GFS being the outlier to the left, and the GFDL which has GFS inputs, is strangely the farthest to the right. Having these two biggest models which share the same inputs being this far apart is puzzling to say the least. I will keep you all posted on this situation.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean and Central America is sparking thunderstorms over a large area. No area of defined low pressure exists yet, but as this sytem gradually drifts northwest, it could have a shot at developing in the NW Caribbean during the next couple days. Remember it is this time of year that we start looking for development in the gulf and Caribbean. Regardless if this develops or not, heavy rainfall totals will drench Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Mexico.
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Updated: 3:17 PM GMT on September 17, 2006

Permalink

Helene Could Threaten the U.S.

By: Levi32, 6:08 AM GMT on September 17, 2006

Tropical Storm Helene:

Helene continues to slowly strengthen tonight. Winds have increased to 80mph with a pressure of 984mb. Current motion is very difficult to determine due to Helene constructing her inner core. A ragged eye has been appearing on IR satellite imagery jumping around as the CDO continues to take shape. Outflow continues to improve, and so far Helene seems to be doing a good job of warding off the dry air to the north and west. The 0z GFS run has changed a bit. Like last night's run, the GFS has the second trough pick up Helene and recurve her out to sea east of North Carolina. From what I can tell this is because The GFS digs the second trough farther south and east than the last run. The 18z run showed the second trough as very weak and quickly accelerated northeast. This allowed Helene to reach the U.S. coast before trough number three came along and picked her up. This latest 0z run once again has the trough number two picking her up. So now there are three potential troughs which could pick up Helene. Which one it is will decide Helene's future path. However this is all speculation, and the models will most likely be jumping all over the place for the next few days as this situation unfolds.

We shall see what happens!



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Tropical Disturbances:

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean and Central America is sparking thunderstorms over a large area. No area of defined low pressure exists yet, but as this sytem gradually drifts northwest, it could have a shot at developing in the NW Caribbean during the next couple days. Remember it is this time of year that we start looking for development in the gulf and Caribbean. Regardless if this develops or not, heavy rainfall totals will drench Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Mexico.
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Updated: 6:16 AM GMT on September 17, 2006

Permalink

Helene Needs to be Watched

By: Levi32, 9:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2006

Tropical Storm Helene Update 9:25pm Eastern:

According to the navy, Helene will have winds of 80-85mph at the 11pm advisory. The CDO is now taking shape, with convection intensifying around the center. Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and Helene appears to be entering a moderate strengthening phase. Of more importance this evening are the models. After two straight runs of forecasting a close run at North Carolina before recurving out, the GFS has pulled a scary one on us. The 18z run takes Helene W to WSW into the Bahamas, scrapes eastern Florida, turns north, and makes landfall in North Carolina. What the GFS was seeing was when Helene misses the first trough, it has the high building in strong over top and moves west. The second shortwave fails to deepen in face of the ridge and Helene is allowed to hit the US. This particular run may be a fluke, but it has proven something never-the-less. This run has proven that a hit on the US by Helene is possible in this situation. That means the westward track cannot be discounted. More and more models are following the westward track with every run. We will see what the 0z runs have to say with the new data from a jet which flew near Helene earlier today. Right now lets just watch and wait. Helene is strengthening, and odds are now split right down the middle track-wise.

Previous Update:
Hurricane Helene continues to stroll across the Atlantic while she organizes. As of the 5pm advisory from the NHC, Helene still has sustained winds of 75mph and minimum pressure of 987mb. Current movement is toward the NW(310) at 12mph. The model spread of Helene's track days 4-5 continues to grow with the 12z runs. The GFDL, CMC, and UKMET remain faithful to accelerating Helene northwestward in advance of a shortwave trough coming off the eastern seaboard. The NOGAPS, BAM, and now the GFS turn Helene west and even WSW for a time, missing the trough. The GFS has shown this on both the 6z and 12z runs this morning. This is a concern considering that the GFS had been recurving Helene along with the GFDL the last few days. The GFS, the only model which forecasts more than 5 days out, brings Helene dangerously close to North Carolina before a second shortwave trough picks her up and turns her out to sea. This sudden shift south in some of the models adds more to the possibility of a US landfall. This is still highly unlikely, however Helene needs to be watched closely by everyone in the Canadian Maritimes, Bermuda, and the entire US east coast including New England.

We shall see what happens!



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Helene

WV Loop of Helene

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Helene

Latest Global model runs for Helene (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Disturbances:

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean and Central America is sparking thunderstorms over a large area. No area of defined low pressure exists yet, but as this sytem gradually drifts northwest, it could have a shot at developing in the NW Caribbean during the next couple days. Remember it is this time of year that we start looking for development in the gulf and Caribbean. Regardless if this develops or not, heavy rainfall totals will drench Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Mexico.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

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SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

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Updated: 1:51 AM GMT on September 17, 2006

Permalink

Hurricane Helene a Mystery

By: Levi32, 4:05 PM GMT on September 16, 2006

Tropical Storm Helene Update 3:15pm Eastern:

Helene is really fighting to organize. Convection is still deepening and expanding in coverage as the eye tries to form under the CDO. Outflow has really started to race outward on the west and northwest side. Motion still towards the NW. The presence of a stationary hurricane Gordon to the north will be an interesting factor to this whole track mess. Gordon will be sitting there like a duck for 36-48 hours yet, and along with being responsible for the present weakness in the ridge, is adding his own heat to the ridge, and setting up a boundary which Helene can't cross in the near term. Will be very interesting to see this whole thing come together.

Previous Update at 11:45am Eastern:
Helene has gained enough convection and organization to be classified as a hurricane at the 11am advisory from the NHC. A ragged eye is appearing periodically on visible satellite imagery, and outflow is improving in all quadrants. The only inhibiting factor for intensification the next few days will be the dry air trying to enter the system. It's affects are already giving Helene a hard time, but no dry air has entered the core yet. Given the current environment, I expect slow strengthening for the next 2-3 days into at least a Cat 2 hurricane. During days 4-5 the NHC mentioned increasing wind shear which could weaken Helene. I'm not so sure about this, but I think Helene will hold her intensity through day 5. The big story this morning is the track forecast for Helene. The NHC is still leaning toward the GFDL and CMC model solutions, which continue to recurve Helene into the trough off the east coast. However the situation is even more complicated today because the 6z run of the GFS last night joined the NOGAPS camp. The GFS has Helene moving NW until 55w and then bam, Helene is batted WSW. The GFS takes Helene so far south that she misses the trough and continues WNW toward North Carolina. The next shortwave trough eventually picks up Helene, but the GFS takes her pretty close to the east coast before recurving. The NOGAPS also has a WSW jog at 55w, and then turns Helene NW right at the end of the run, so we don't know what the NOGAPS thinks about recurving. Now with the GFS making this sudden shift in its forecast, we have to consider this possibility. The reasoning for either track is sound. If Helene misses the first trough, which I think she will (sticking my neck out on this one), she will have a chance to make a run at the east coast, or at the very least the Canadian Maritimes. This will all depend on the speed and amplitude of the two troughs. Helene is not a guarenteed fish storm, and the chance of a US hit is still on the table. We'll have to see how this all unfolds.



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Helene

WV Loop of Helene

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

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Latest model runs for Helene

Latest Global model runs for Helene (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Disturbances:

NONE!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We shall see what happens!

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Updated: 7:20 PM GMT on September 16, 2006

Permalink

Tropical Storm Helene

By: Levi32, 3:16 PM GMT on September 15, 2006

Introducing "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra" version 2.0!

LOL it's time for a change. My blog structure up till now (version 1.0 if you will) has been littered with images and lengthly discussions. The images in particular have I'm sure made it very rough on dial-up users, and for that I apologize. My new blog structure will consist of only a couple small images, which shouldn't tax dial-up too hard. The new format will also feature shorter, more compact discussions by me, instead of the big long ones I'm used to writing. This will mean less typing for me, and less reading time for you. :) Overall I hope to make my blog more "user friendly." My blog is open to anyone who wishes to discuss the weather, particularly the tropics during summer. Nothing is too crazy for me. I've been kinda known for "dreaming up the impossible" with storms. ;) So please feel free to stop by and share your opinions and questions! Here is this morning's update on the tropics:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Storm Helene:

Helene has finally started to organize and now looks more like a typical tropical storm. A large convective band is wrapping around the south side of the center, with abundant convection and rainbands around the center. Given the low shear and favorable SSTs, I expect Helene to be a hurricane sometime tomorrow. Helene is still moving WNW, and this motion should continue for the next few days, with possibly a slight turn to the NW. The GFS, GFDL, and CMC models continue to weaken the ridge to the north and recurve Helene into the trough which will come off the east coast in 4-5 days. The UKMET has also shifted a little north at days 4-5, but still shows a west track days 1-3. The NOGAPS is the most interesting model this morning. It takes Helene WNW until she is just NE of the Antilles, and then takes her on a WSW jog north of Puerto Rico. At the end of the run Helene resumes a WNW course. The NOGAPS now thinks there will be enough ridging to turn Helene westward. This is a possibility. Right now I don't see the ridge breaking down as fast as the GFS and GFDL think. I still think the UKMET and NOGAPS have the best handle on the system. Now let me make it clear there is still a small chance that Helene hits the US, but very slim at this point. Even if Helene slips the first trough, the next in line should pick her up.



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Helene

WV Loop of Helene

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Helene

Latest Global model runs for Helene (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Disturbances:

NONE!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We shall see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

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North Atlantic WV Loop (The BIG Picture)

Updated: 3:30 PM GMT on September 15, 2006

Permalink

Helene and Gordon Eat Fish

By: Levi32, 7:42 PM GMT on September 14, 2006

Introducing "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra" version 2.0!

LOL it's time for a change. My blog structure up till now (version 1.0 if you will) has been littered with images and lengthly discussions. The images in particular have I'm sure made it very rough on dial-up users, and for that I apologize. My new blog structure will consist of only a couple small images, which shouldn't tax dial-up too hard. The new format will also feature shorter, more compact discussions by me, instead of the big long ones I'm used to writing. This will mean less typing for me, and less reading time for you. :) Overall I hope to make my blog more "user friendly." My blog is open to anyone who wishes to discuss the weather, particularly the tropics during summer. Nothing is too crazy for me. I've been kinda known for "dreaming up the impossible" with storms. ;) So please feel free to stop by and share your opinions and questions! Here is this afternoon's update on the tropics:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hurricane Gordon:

Gordon still has an impressive look to it this afternoon with a beautiful 20 mile-wide eye winking at us. As Gordon moves closer to the trough to the northwest SW shear is starting to affect it. I think Gordon has reached peak intensity at a 120mph Cat 3, and should start a weakening trend by tonight. Gordon will continue to curve NE out to sea, and is no threat to any land.



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Gordon

WV Loop of Gordon

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Gordon

Latest Global model runs for Gordon (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)
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Tropical Storm Helene:

Helene isn't as organized as last night. All the convection is a fragmented mess, although the center of circulation is now more in the middle of it, which shows the shear is lessening. There are two possibilities of where Helene will go. One follows the GFS, GFDL, BAM models which take Helene NW towards a forecasted weakness in the ridge to the north. These models rapidly dissipate the ridge and allow Helene to recurve into the trough which will be passing by to the north. The UKMET and NOGAPS models show the second option, which brings Helene WNW all the way to NE of the Antilles Islands before recurving. In my opinion this is the more likely scenario because the pattern favors a stronger ridge in the central Atlantic. However even if Helene slips the first trough, it will hit a brick wall at 50-55w. The trough off the eastern seaboard is holding fast, and all storms which form east of that line and come north of the Antilles will have a hard time getting past that trough. There is still a remote possibility that Helene makes it to the east coast. There are ways, such as slowing down NE of the islands and the trough slips by to the north, and then the trough off the eastern seaboard either splits or lifts out allowing Helene to make a move further west. It is very unlikely, and I expect Helene to recurve, but keep an eye open anyway. As far as intensity goes, Helene will have a tough time organizing due to her size. I expect Helene will gradually strengthen to a hurricane Saturday night, and intensification after that to a Cat 2 or 3 is possible. Again I think the track shown by the UKMET and NOGAPS models is what Helene will take.



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Helene

WV Loop of Helene

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Helene

Latest Global model runs for Helene (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Disturbances:

The tropical wave which entered the Caribbean last night is now void of convection and is still being sheared. It is currently no threat for development but everything should be watched in the Caribbean this time of year.

The Gulf of Mexico disurbance has dissipated, but with all these old fronts sitting there over that warm water, keep an eye open for home-brew development here late in the season.

The little curly-Q southeast of the front off the eastern seaboard is not a threat to develop, but it will enhance the rain in New England, which will add to the flooding problems in that area.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We shall see what happens!

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North Atlantic WV Loop (The BIG Picture)

Permalink

My New Blog Format

By: Levi32, 4:47 AM GMT on September 14, 2006

Introducing "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra" version 2.0!

LOL it's time for a change. My blog structure up till now (version 1.0 if you will) has been littered with images and lengthly discussions. The images in particular have I'm sure made it very rough on dial-up users, and for that I apologize. My new blog structure will consist of only a couple small images, which shouldn't tax dial-up too hard. The new format will also feature shorter, more compact discussions by me, instead of the big long ones I'm used to writing. This will mean less typing for me, and less reading time for you. :) Overall I hope to make my blog more "user friendly." My blog is open to anyone who wishes to discuss the weather, particularly the tropics during summer. Nothing is too crazy for me. I've been kinda known for "dreaming up the impossible" with storms. ;) So please feel free to stop by and share your opinions and questions! Here is tonight's update on the tropics:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hurricane Gordon:

Gordon continues to strengthen tonight. At 11pm the NHC upgraded Gordon to a Cat 3 hurricane with 120mph sustained winds, the first major hurricane of the 2006 season. Gordon has maintained a clear, well-defined eye, along with good symetry and outflow. Gordon is currently moving north through a weakness in the ridge left by Florence. He should be pulled out to sea by the trough well east of Bermuda, therefore no threat to land. Since he is only a threat to ships, this storm should be fun to watch.



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Gordon

WV Loop of Gordon

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Gordon

Latest Global model runs for Gordon (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Storm Helene:

The NHC upgraded TD 8 to TS Helene at 11pm. Organization has improved since last night, with a curved band of strong convection arcing N to SW of the center. The overall circulation is better defined, and may be trying to reform west closer to the convection. Light easterly shear has been Helene's main problem. The immense area of dry air to the north hasn't gotten into her core, and apparently shouldn't be much of a problem in the short term. The models turn Helene northwest in 2 days toward a weakness forecasted to develop in the ridge. Some models such as the UKMET and NOGAPS re-srengthen the ridge after 4-5 days, and curve Helene back to the west. The NHC track closely follows this reasoning. I think there is a fair chance that Helene slips the trough and makes a run for the US east coast. She will then have to battle the east coast trough to get to the coast, but slipping the central Atlantic trough is possible. As far as intensity goes, Helene should continue to slowly strengthen during the next 3 days, possibly becoming a hurricane by the weekend. The NHC forecasts a hurricane by Friday, and a Cat 2 by Saturday. Intensification will be limited by the light easterly shear currently affecting the storm, and the dry air to the north could still be an issue later on. By days 4-5, the trough forecasted to develop north of the Antilles Islands could impose some southwesterly shear over Helene, possibly weakening it. The NHC sees this as well, and forecasts a slight weakening at day 5, but still a Cat 2. I am in agreement with this forecast.



^Click for Loop^



RGB (Enhanced Visible) Loop of Helene

WV Loop of Helene

Latest Public Advisory from the NHC

Latest Forecast Discussion from the NHC

Latest model runs for Helene

Latest Global model runs for Helene (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, NOGAPS, BAM)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tropical Disturbances:

A tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean is being sheared by an upper low to the NW. As this upper low dives southwestward over the next few days, this wave will have chance to develop as it moves WNW-NW. Right now it is not a threat.

A small disturbance in the Bay of Campeche has pretty much dissipated this evening. However the entire Gulf of Mexico has to be watched over the next couple weeks, as we may be seeing some activity in that area with old fronts sitting around and the overall pattern favoring Caribbean and gulf development.

A discreet low-level vortex NE of the Bahamas has been sitting around for a couple days and could be a threat for home-grown development off the SE coast during the next few days. Right now it doesn't look all that impressive, but it is something to watch, as it is the time of year for things like that to start popping.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We shall see what happens!

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Updated: 2:22 PM GMT on September 14, 2006

Permalink

Florence, Gordon, and TD 8

By: Levi32, 10:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2006

Forgive me for my absence, my life has been extremely busy lately, and I havn't had time to post much. In the mean time while my nose was buried in calculus books, the tropics have finally exploded. Hurricane Florence took a pass very close to Bermuda as a borderline Cat 1-2, causing a good amount of damage to the island, but not very bad. Florence will continue to race northeast, and the Canadian Maritimes look to be her next target. The good news is Florence has begun her weakening trend, and should only be a strong tropical storm near Canada. Just yesterday TS Gordon formed out of nowhere, and is now near or at hurricane strength. The northerly flow left behind by Florence is catching this system and bringing it north on roughly the same path. Given the rapid strengthening of this system it is probably now commited to following Florence, but the ridge is trying to stick its nose in there behind Florence, and there's still a remote possibility that Gordon gets trapped, although that is unlikely. Newly formed TD 8 huffed and puffed off the African coast yesterday, and should be named Helene tonight or tomorrow morning. This will be another long-track system which we will be watching for a good 10 days, and poses yet another threat to Bermuda in the long-term.

Helene has a better chance of beating the trough that Florence or Gordon. It is farther south for one, and the ridge is forecasted to strengthen north of the system, at least until 55w. The trough in that area won't be so deep in 5 days as it is now, and the ridge might be strong enough for Helene to sneak under and make a run for the US. Also in favor of the westward track is Typhoon Shanshan in the western Pacific. Now what the heck does a typhoon half-way around the world have to do with the track of Helene in the Atlantic? Well weather patterns (especially tropical systems) in the west Pacific often have implications down the road farther east. Take Typhoon Ioke for example. Ioke was a long track system which recurved east of Tokyo. Tokyo, Japan is the teleconnetic copy of Hatteras, North Carolina. The path of Ioke suggested that a long-track hurricane would form in the Atlantic and recurve east of Hatteras in 6-10 days. That's exactly what happened. Florence formed and recurved 10 days later. Shanshan, the latest Typhoon, is forecasted to cross western Japan, which may signal a storm busting the trough and threatening the Carolinas in 6-10 days. Helene formed right on schedule, and the teleconnetic pattern is in favor of a southeast US hit. I'm not saying it will happen, it's waaaaay too far out to say yet, but it is a possibility to consider. Right now the models are leaning toward their usual early recurve scenario, and the NHC is close behind, forecasting a Cat 2 hurricane moving NW in 5 days. The tropics are coming alive right at the peak of the season, and nobody is off the hook yet. The hurricane season of 2006 is far from over, so keep an eye to the sky! :)

We shall see what happens!

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Hurricane Florence:


^Click for Loop^



^Click for Loop^

000
WTNT31 KNHC 122035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 12 2006

...FLORENCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY....

RESIDENTS IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...
965 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS FLORENCE BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415
MILES...665 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...39.3 N...59.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH









Tropical Storm Gordon:


^Click for Loop^



^Click for Loop^

000
WTNT32 KNHC 122050
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...GORDON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW MOVING NORTH...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...815 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...58.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH







Tropical Depression 8:


^Click for Loop^



^Click for Loop^

000
WTNT33 KNHC 122032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...DEPRESSION NEARING STORM STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...23.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH









^Click for Loop^





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^Click for Loop^





Permalink

Florence Beginning to Strengthen

By: Levi32, 12:19 AM GMT on September 07, 2006

After battling wind shear and dry air today, Florence is I think finally getting its real act together. Thunderstorms have been very persistent NE of the mean center position, and the main vortex has rotated north under these thunderstorms this afternoon. This vortex may be becoming the main center now as the thunderstorns blossom over it. This would mean relocation to the north, but overall motion is still WNW and even a little west of WNW. Mid-level dry air has been choking the western semi-cirle, partly due to the upper-level low to the NW pumping this dry air into the system. The upper low is weakening and its influence on Florence is diminishing. It should drift out of the way by tomorrow. In the meantime, an upper Anticyclone is now starting to develop over top of Florence, and during the next few days this will continue to grow and the upper pattern should be very favorable for intensification during the 3-5 day period. The GFDL continues to forecast a Cat 3, and the NHC is now following that solution, forecasting a Cat 3 in 4 days. I also believe this is reasonable, and Florence could easily become a Cat 3-4 hurricane in the Bermuda Triangle. Given the current rate of organization I think we will have hurricane Florence by tomorrow night or Friday morning.

The track forecast is a lot more tricky. The models are consistently forecasting Florence to recurve near Bermuda, with a tweak here and there for every run. However, despite the consensus, there is considerable arguement that Florence could still hit the US east coast. I have three reasons. 1) The models still have a bias to lift tropical systems out too early and they overplay the trough. The trough is actually not that strong looking on the GFS 500mb, and it passes by to the north quite quickly. Same with the other models, the trough really isn't that impressive, they just want to get rid of Florence. 2) All the models agree that a strengthening surface high will dive SE through southern Canada and set up a block directly north of Florence over New England and the Canadian Maritimes. However the models jolt Florence right through that high following the extreme tail-end of the trough which passed by the day before. This doesn't make sense in my eyes, and I'm tempted to think that the models just want Florence to recurve no matter what stands in its way. 3) The models don't have any idea how large Florence really is. Her circulation is already huge, with TS winds extending over 260 miles from the center. Once a hurricane, her hurricane force windfield could rival Ivan and Katrina's, and possibly bigger. Because of her size, Florence is and will generate an enormous amount of heat, which her outflow channels will be constantly pumping into the ridge in front of her. The end result could mean a stronger ridge than the models are currently forecasting. The GFS in particular doesn't handle tropical heat very well. With this amount of heat Florence is creating, the GFS doesn't know what to do with it. And whenever the GFS doesn't know what to do with all that tropical heat, it kicks out the storm. All these things combined, I see 3 track possibilities. A) Florence recurves east of the US and gives Bermuda a beating like the models are saying right now. B) The ridge remains strong and Florence makes a beeline for the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states. C) The high over eastern Canada traps Florence in the act of recurving and Flo does a loop kinda like Jeanne did a couple years ago and comes back west. IMHO all three of these scenarios have an equal chance of coming true. Right now I won't go any farther than to forecast a major hurricane in the Bermuda triangle, and until we have a better idea of where this storm is going, I'm not ready to make a track prediction past that point.

We shall see what happens!

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 062031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST WED SEP 06 2006

...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOON...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT 770
MILES...1235 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1240 MILES...1995 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N...51.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN











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Updated: 12:23 AM GMT on September 07, 2006

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TS Florence Strengthening

By: Levi32, 1:56 AM GMT on September 06, 2006

TS Florence is starting to get her act together tonight. A large area of strong thunderstorms has developed in the NE quadrant, and is trying to wrap around the center from the north. The circulation itself has finally consolidated into one individual center, and with the trough lifting out and ridge starting to build over top, Florence should begin a steady strengthening trend to a hurricane on Thursday. The models are still all over the place with this sytem. One problem the recent runs have been having is locating Florence's exact position due to the multiple cirulation centers which have been present the last two days. The main center to the south won out, and the models havn't quite picked up on that yet. The 0z runs should realize the change though, and those runs will be interesting. The main consensus of the models is to recurve Florence east of the US into a shortwave trough coming through the maritimes. The models do have a bias to dig the eastern seaboard trough too deep, and I think they are overdoing it again with this trough. Also most of the models aren't seeing Invest 98L behind Florence. This sneaky little system which will probably become TD 7 by Thursday will play a BIG role in where Flo will eventually go. My theory is 98L will "deflect" the flow more eastward, along with pumping more heat ahead of both systems, thus forcing Florence more westward. This could be an interesting dance of two tropical cyclones, with Florence being the stronger of the two. As far as intensity goes, if the models are correct, an upper high should start forming over the system, and by Friday, the upper pattern will be very favorable for strengthening. This ridge will be narrow, and the exact position of Florence in relation to the ridge will be crucial in how strong she gets. Right now I think Florence WILL become a major hurricane in the Bermuda Triangle, and a hit on the US east coast can't be ruled out yet. It's gonna be close, and in 2-3 days we will have a much better idea of where this storm is going.

We shall see what happens!

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 052033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 960
MILES...1550 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...48.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART











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Updated: 1:57 AM GMT on September 06, 2006

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TD 6 Almost Florence

By: Levi32, 3:39 PM GMT on September 04, 2006

Tropical Depression 6 is almost at TS strength this morning. Convection is still a bit limited and far from the center, but low-level banding is improving and QuikScat passes are indicating winds just below TS strength. TD 6 is still moving NW in response to a trough to the north, which is expected to inhibit strengthening and steer TD 6 NW for the next 24-48 hours. In 2 days the global models predict this trough to lift out, possibly leaving an upper low behind, and the upper ridge to build over top of the system. This environment will be much more favorable for strengthening, and intensification to a hurricane is very possible in the 4-5 day period. Right now strengthening is occuring very slowly with the system. This is due to the SW shear imposed by the trough, and the remains of Invest 98L may be hindering it as well. Intensification should proceed at a crawl until the trough moves out of the way. I expect TD 6 will become TS Florence tonight or tomorrow, and hurricane Florence in 4-5 days. The global models are now divided on the future path of this system. The GFS is now recurving it near Bermuda and forecasting a stronger trough. The other models are still quite far south. Most of the models are also forecasting a significant slowing of forward speed, which would hint at weak steering currents. All this will become clearer as the days go by. Right now it is too far out to speculate on whether the US will be affected, but I'm holding to my prediction that this will be an east coast storm.

Another wave to watch is WSW of the Cape Verde Islands and east of TD 6. It has a closed circulation with 20-25 knot winds. Thunderstorm activity isn't strong or organized, but development of this system is possible over the next few days.

We shall see what happens!

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 041433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1235 MILES...1990 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...42.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN











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Updated: 3:41 PM GMT on September 04, 2006

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TD 6 Forms

By: Levi32, 2:30 AM GMT on September 04, 2006

Tropical Depression #6 has formed this afternoon from former Invest 90L. Cloud tops have warmed a bit near the center, but convective banding is improving. The circulation is still broad due to former Invest 98L, but the two systems should merge soon. The NHC track follows the models turning TD 6 westward north of Puerto Rico. I do think this is an east coast system. The trough to the north will not pick up TD 6, and the ridge should steer the system west all the way to the US coast. Of course it is way too early to start talking about a US landfall, but I do think somebody on the east coast will feel the affects of this system in about 10 days. The environment around TD 6 is currently not favorable for rapid intensification due to the trough imposing southwesterly wind shear. This trough will lift out tomorrow and the shear will lessen, allowing TD 6 to strengthen more. The environment becomes even more favorable as the upper ridge builds over top of the system north of Puerto Rico. It is too early to start forecasting intensity of this storm just yet, but I do think this is TS Florence to be, and very possibly hurricane Florence in a few days. The NHC is following the GFDL and SHIPS models and forecasting gradual intensification to a hurricane in 4 days.

We shall see what happens!

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 040228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395
MILES...2245 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.8 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH









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Updated: 5:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2006

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90L Could Become TD #6

By: Levi32, 4:56 PM GMT on September 03, 2006

The system that the NHC declared "Invest 90L" has become much better organized this morning. Deep convection has sustained itself around a 1007mb low midway between Africa and the Antilles. Latest QuikScat pass is partial and only shows the east side of the system, but even that little bit compared with the previous full pass indicate that the circulation is beginning to tighten and winds are increasing. The system just to the west of 90L which was designated 98L yesterday morning is serving to elongate the circulation east-west, but is slowly being absorbed by 90L, which is the dominant circulation. However 98L may do some good for its neighbor. Because 98L is west of 90L, it is jutting moisture westward ahead of 90L, and for now preventing wind shear and dry air from getting to 90L from the west. Something similar helped Ernesto to develop when a "dagger" of moisture moistened the environment west of the system before it developed. I think 90L has a good chance to become TD 6 later today or tomorrow. The system already shows up really well on 850mb vorticity maps, and has a pronounced vort max all the way up past the 500mb level.

Here's the current atmospheric situation. A deep trough directly to the north of 90L is digging south as evident on the WV satellite loop. This trough is creating high shear just to the north of 90L, and may have an impact on the system for the next 24 hours. After 24 hours the GFS forecasts the trough to lift out pretty quickly, leaving 90L behind in fairly low-shear, moist environment to develop. I do not currently think that the trough will pick up 90L. It will pull the system northwestward for a time, and then all the models forecast the system to turn back west as the high builds in ahead of 90L. So if this develops, how strong will it get? Well the SHIPS model ramps this up to 98mph in 6 days, and all other models develop the system except the NOGAPS and UKMET. Again models have a hard time initializing and forecasting systems before they have developed because they are so weak. The environment ahead of 90L should be favorable for the next few days, so I expect TD 6 to form today or tomorrow, and Tropical Storm Florence could result in a few days.

A couple other systems to mention: 99L is in the eastern Caribbean fighting shear from a trough to the north. A small area of thunderstorms are struggling to maintain themselves over top of it. Development isn't expected any time soon. 99L will have a better chance once it is in the western Caribbean. A new wave off the Africa coast has lots of heavy thunderstorm activity with it, but very disorganized at this time. This system could become a threat to develop in a few days.

We shall see what happens!

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Updated: 5:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2006

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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