Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Ernesto Strengthens Near the Carolinas

By: Levi32, 3:12 PM GMT on August 31, 2006

UPDATE 7PM EASTERN TIME: Ernesto is continueing to organize just a few hours from landfall, and an eye is now developing on radar and satellite imagery. According to latest RECON reports Ernesto is very near or at hurricane strength. I think the 8pm advisory will make the upgrade. The window of oppertunity for rapid intensification to a Cat 2 storm is closing, but strengthening up until landfall is expected. Dry air got into the center earlier, which stalled intensification for a little the last few hours. However Ernesto has now mixed most of that out, and a solid eye wall is forming on radar. My track to Wilmington, NC still seems good, and the intensity forecast of 85mph is also on track. I'm still a little uncertain of the track after landfall, as the ULL to the west may not pull so much on Ernesto as the NHC thinks, but I will focus more on that after landfall. Residents should be preparing for a hurricane. Please listen to your local authorities for the latest information and instructions.

We shall see what happens!

Previous Update:
TS Ernesto now has sustained winds of 60mph and strengthening. Minimum central pressure is 994mb. The fears of intensification into a hurricane are coming true so far, and my forecast of an 85mph hurricane in Wilmington, North Carolina seems to be holding up. Everyone should be prepared for a hurricane even if it's not one at landfall. However regardless of intensity the rainfall will be the big issue with cold air to the west colliding with warm air from Ernesto and the southeast. Rain has already fallen on these areas all the way up to New York, and more rain would cause more flooding problems, perhaps serious. Stay tuned to your local weather offices and saftey officials for the latest information.

We shall see what happens!



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000
WTNT35 KNHC 312034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TONIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD
DETERIORATE SOON...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...ERNESTO COULD REACH THE COAST AS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES...THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N...78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA







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Updated: 11:07 PM GMT on August 31, 2006

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Ernesto Almost Done With Florida

By: Levi32, 11:43 PM GMT on August 30, 2006

TD Ernesto will move off the Florida coast near Cape Canaveral within the next 6 hours. The storm's organization has continued to improve on satellite and radar imagery this afternoon. The daytime heating of the Peninsula has helped spark an area of intense thunderstorms over the center, which over water would be classified as a CDO. In my opinion this was never a depression, and is still a tropical storm. Regardless of the classification, once over water Ernesto will begin to strengthen right away, perhaps rapidly. The storm is much better organized now than when it came off Cuba and made landfall in Florida. This will allow strengthening to begin sooner this time. Depending on exact track, Ernesto will get about 18-24 hours over the warm Gulf Stream before making landfall in the Carolinas. Shear won't be too bad, and upper-level outflow is improving and will continue to do so. My forecast has not changed. Ernesto will make landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. Again this is not the NHC forecast. Please refer to the NHC and your local officials for the latest information regarding Ernesto

We shall see what happens!



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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1125 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...RADAR AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS REGAINED TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...

DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41009 HAS REPORTED AN 8-MINUTE
AVERAGE WIND OF 36 MPH...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AT MELBOURNE
FLORIDA HAS SHOWN WINDS OF 45-60 MPH AT 1000-2500 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ERNESTO HAS
REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40
MPH EAST OF THE CENTER.


000
WTNT35 KNHC 310232
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...EXPECTED
TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST.
THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AWAY FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THURSDAY.

NOAA BUOY 41009 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN







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Updated: 3:49 AM GMT on August 31, 2006

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Ernesto over Florida....Carolinas Next

By: Levi32, 2:33 PM GMT on August 30, 2006

Ernesto has spared Florida his worst. He failed to intensify over the Florida Straights and made landfall last night as only moderate tropical storm. Florida will get some heavy rains and minor flooding, but that should be the worst they get out of this storm. However the Carolinas could get a bigger punch of Ernesto's wrath tomorrow. As the trough approaching from the west advances it will accelerate Ernesto NNE to NE off the coast of Florida and up towards the SE coast, where it will turn to the north and make a second landfall. So how strong will Ernesto be? Well that's a tough one. I believe Ernesto will exit Florida near Cape Canaveral. Ernesto will then ride the hot Gulf Stream NNE towards the Carolinas. The NHC is currently forecasting Ernesto to only have about 14 hours over water before hitting land a second time. I want to point out that even though Ernesto is over Florida right now, it is NOT weakening. In fact the surface pressure fell from 1003mb at landfall to 1001mb inland from surface obs. The structure has actually improved on radar, and the NHC discussion at 5am mentioned the frictional affects of land helping to tighten the low-level circulation. The reason for this "strengthening" over land is due to the very warm waters on 3 sides of the storm, and Florida is very flat and wet anyway. The result is a lot of moist air flowing into the storm, combined with frictional affects has actually tightened the circulation and improved the structure. I think it will hang on to TS status until it hits the water. Landfall location in the Carolinas will determine how much time Ernesto has over the water. If the NHC landfall location is right(just southwest of the SC-NC border) Ernesto will have 12-14 hours over water. However if the landfall is shifted slightly east, Ernesto could get up to 15-18 hours over water. This will be crucial as to the landfall intensity. The upper outflow pattern will be ideal, and the trough shouldn't impose any significant shear on the system. I am ready to predict a second landfall at Wilmington, North Carolina as a Cat 1 hurricane with 85mph winds. Once again this is NOT the NHC forecast. Please refer to your local weather offices and safety authorities for the latest information.

We shall see what happens!



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000
WTNT35 KNHC 301145
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO WEAKENING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY NEAR LATITUDE 26.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE
WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA







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Updated: 6:39 PM GMT on August 30, 2006

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Ernesto Nearing Florida

By: Levi32, 3:02 PM GMT on August 29, 2006

UPDATE 1:15pm Eastern Time: Ernesto is organizing rapidly, but no sign of actual intensification from recon yet. The convection patter is perfect, except the main convection is a tad north of the center. There are no major changes to my previous update, but I have growing concern for a more westward path by Ernesto. Radar data out of Miami shows a more WNW movement, and the high to the north hasn't really started to weaken or move east that much yet. The radar data also suggests that the COC may have reformed west of the previous recon fix. That will be something to watch as well. The latest 12z models are still on or west of the NHC track, with the exception of the GFS so far. I still think we will see a 60-70mph TS in SW Florida, but keep your eyes open. Ernesto has had a mind of its own for the last week, and it could still pull something unexpected. I will have another update after the NHC 5pm advisory unless something significant occurs.

Previous Update:
TS Ernesto has finally moved off Cuba. Convection is firing near the center, and the upper low's influence is beginning to fade on the system. Ernesto still has 12-18 hours before landfall, and strengthening is expected over the warm waters of the Florida Straights. Wind shear is expected to be near zero at landfall, and the overall upper pattern will be near perfect. Ernesto still has a chance to reach hurricane strength before landfall. After crossing Florida, Ernesto will threaten the Carolinas possibly as a hurricane, and there is now the possibility of Ernesto getting trapped off the coast by the building high. I will discuss this in detail after Ernesto has made landfall in Florida. The models have shifted west a bit this morning, and the NHC forecast has shifted as well. I am still a little shaky on landfall location, but here is my best forecast. My forecasted landfall in the keys near Marathon as a 70mph storm and then up east of Naples. Then Ernesto will exit Florida near Cape Canaveral as a 45mph TS and head towards the Carolinas. This is not the NHC forecast, it is mine. Please refer to the NHC and your local weather office for the latest information.

We shall see what happens!



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000
WTNT35 KNHC 291431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL
BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH







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Updated: 5:22 PM GMT on August 29, 2006

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Ernesto Big Threat to Florida and the Carolinas.

By: Levi32, 2:34 PM GMT on August 28, 2006

Ernesto seems to want to hit every piece of land it tracks close to. It is now preparing to cross eastern Cuba and will threaten the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas in 24-48 hours. Just a quick note: At 4:30am Eastern this morning Joe Bastardi pointed out this:

"Ernesto will be back over the water by 2 p.m. as it will reform quickly on the north side of the island of Cuba. Why? It is weak for one and for two all the convection is northeast of the center so it is simply telling us what it is going to do."

This could happen very easily as he says. If that is so, Ernesto will not weaken much if at all during the crossing of Cuba, and will have at least 36 hours to strengthen over the warm waters of the gulf stream. The NHC discussion at 5am even mentioned the possibility of a Cat 2-3 hurricane making landfall in south Florida. Don't let your guard down yet! This will probably be a hurricane at landfall, though the exact intensity is not known yet. Rapid strengthening is a very strong possibility before landfall due to the warm SSTs and the almost perfect upper pattern which will be over the storm. Shear is forecast to be almost zero, and the upper low currently impeding the outflow to the NW of Ernesto will be out of the way soon. The upper ridge to the north will build over the top, and Ernesto will track NW until the shortwave turns it N to NE. Now, I have given up on the westward idea I guess Ernesto doesn't care if it is defying the laws of nature lol. So, I am in agreement with the NHC track at this time, but I see the possibility of a track slightly east. It is possible that Ernesto could miss Florida all together and they get away with a scraping, but at the cost of the Bahamas getting a direct hit by a stronger storm, and the Carolinas would be next in line. Once Ernesto is done with Florida and the Bahamas, it is not simply going to let us be and race out to sea. Sorry, the ridge is going to trap it off the SE coast. It will move slowly if not stall over the gulf stream somewhere south of the Carolinas. This would be extremely bad news for the Carolinas, because the position of the ridge wouldn't allow a move east. Therefore when Ernesto does move, the US would probably get a second landfall near the Carolinas. So, the farther east Ernesto tracks, the greater the threat to the Bahamas and the Carolinas. The farther west, the greater threat to Florida. Pick your poison. The NHC is currently following the model consensus. The models are in better agreement after having data from the NOAA jet fed into them on last night's runs.

We shall see what happens!

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ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN



Updated: 2:54 PM GMT on August 28, 2006

Permalink

Hurricane Ernesto

By: Levi32, 3:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2006

Well we have our first hurricane of the 2006 season. Unfortunately this is no pretty puppy. Haiti is currently being sandblasted with wind and torrential rains. Cuba and Florida are next. The NHC has pulled an unexpected shift of the forecast track farther east than last night. It how has Ernesto crossing eastern and central Cuba and curving up across the Florida peninsula. If this track verifies, Tampa could have one heck of a situation to deal with in 3 days. The upper pattern has greatly improved over Ernesto with shear under 5 knots and outflow is expanding in all quadrants. The system is still a little ragged but that should improve with time. Last recon last night showed an eye forming and good temp difference. The next recon will investigate Ernesto at 17 UTC. I am going to have to disagree with the NHC on their track this time. I think their shift even further east this morning was premature, and I still think the models are overplaying the weakness in the ridge. I think Ernesto will drift through the gap between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, move WNW and cross central-western Cuba as a strong Cat 2 and just possibly even a Cat 3 depending on how much time Ernesto spends over water before making landfall in Cuba. Also depending on how long Ernesto stays over Cuba he could be a major hurricane in the gulf still. We will have a better idea later today and tomorrow of where Ernesto will cross Cuba, and therefore how strong he will be when he re-emerges in the gulf. I think we shouldn't expect too much weakening over Cuba though for a couple reasons. 1) The upper air pattern over the storm will remain nearly perfect through Florida landfall including Ernesto's time over Cuba. 2) Ernesto has a history of being a fighter and defying the odds it has faced. If this "personality" of the storm holds true, it shouldn't weaken significantly over Cuba. Case in point, this is a dangerous storm for everybody in its path, and if people in the "cone of uncertainty" havn't made preliminary hurricane preperations they should do so now just in case.

We shall see what happens!

Cuba Radars

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

National Hurricane Center




Click for Loop



Click for Loop

000
WTNT35 KNHC 271435
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Updated: 3:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2006

Permalink

Ernesto Getting Stronger

By: Levi32, 10:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2006

Ernesto is dealing with a very complex situation right now. The upper-level low which was creating strong southwesterly shear over the system is now moving rapidly off to the west. Ernesto has been trying to keep its center under the thunderstorms, and as a result the center has reformed twice so far today. The problem is, when the center reformed, both times it reformed to the north. This has shoved Ernesto closer to Hispanola, and this could change the forecast track. The NHC has already shifted the track north of Jamaica and across western Cuba. Until more recon fixes come in and we get a good idea of the real motion, I will not make any significant changes to my forecast. I still think Ernesto will pass over or just south of Jamaica as a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane, and then turn NW through the Yucatan Channel or over the extreme western tip of Cuba. By that time I think it will already be a major hurricane. The upper high forecast to develop over the NW Caribbean in combination with warmer SSTs should allow for this kind of intensification to happen. Once in the gulf, Ernesto could strengthen further aided by the warm SSTs. The track forecast in the gulf is a bit more tricky. The models still can't agree very well on how much a shortwave trough diving SE towards the eastern seaboard will weaken the upper high over the north gulf coast. Right now the consensus is to take Ernesto north towards Louisiana and Alabama. It is really tough to figure this one out right now, but I will go as far to say that I think Texas is not likely to be hit anymore. I think a hit anywhere from central Louisiana to Appolachicola is possible.

We shall see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

National Hurricane Center


Tropical Storm Ernesto:



Click for Loop



Click for Loop

000
WTNT35 KNHC 262040
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Permalink

Ernesto Continues to Strengthen

By: Levi32, 1:55 PM GMT on August 26, 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto is pulling an amazing this morning. It is coming out of the gauntlet strengthening. This is rare, and a storm strengthening in this part of the Caribbean is usually destined to become a major hurricane. The center is still under the western side of the CDO due to the SW shear which is still affecting it and pushing the thunderstorms to the east. However the upper low causing the shear is moving west away from Ernesto, and models forecast this upper low to move out of the Caribbean and an upper ridge to take its place. This would provide almost perfect conditions for Ernesto to strengthen. Waters are very warm from the NW Caribbean into the gulf, and the outflow pattern setting up could be textbook. Ernesto has the potential to become a major hurricane even before leaving the Caribbean, and he could become quite large as well. My track forecast has no major changes. I think Ernesto will pass just south of Jamaica and then just west of the western tip of Cuba as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. After that, a weakness in the ridge to the north will determine where Ernesto recurves northward. The models aren't very consistent with this feature, and anywhere from the Texas panhandle to Pensacola could be under threat from this storm. This could be a dangerous storm! The NHC is already forecasting a major hurricane in the gulf, and Ernesto will take advantage of every oppertunity to strengthen. Everyone in the western Caribbean and the gulf coast should keep a close eye on this storm during the next several days.

We shall see what happens!

NASA Super-zoomed-in Visible Satellite Loop of Ernesto

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

National Hurricane Center


Tropical Storm Ernesto:



Click for Loop



Click for Loop

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261134
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





Tropical Depression Debby:



Click for Loop



Click for Loop

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
500 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...DEBBY WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1450
MILES...2330 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...25.3 N...46.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA







Click for Loop



Click for Loop



Click for Loop

Updated: 3:12 PM GMT on August 26, 2006

Permalink

TD 5 Will Become Ernesto

By: Levi32, 3:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

Update 2pm Eastern: An unexpected change has occured. A surface vortex has jumped out of the convection on the west side of TD 5 and the recon plane just confirmed that it is the real center of the system. The mid-level center has decoupled from the surface center, leaving the trade winds and southwest shear to expose the center. Recon did find winds well into tropical storm force, so I think the storm will be upgraded to Ernesto on the next advisory. Now there are two possible scenarios. If TD 5 tries to hang on to the surface center, it's probably dead. It will run into SW shear and without good organization it will be ripped apart. However, I think there is a good chance that TD 5 will let the surface center fly and develop a new LLC under the mid-level center which is still intact in the midst of the convection ball. If this happens, the system will have another chance to organize and strengthen before hitting the shear zone if it catches up with it. However if a new center forms the forward motion would be slowed and TD 5 would likely not catch up with the upper low in the NW Caribbean. It will be interesting see what the NHC says about this later.

We shall see what happens!

Previous Update:
The 11am forecast package from the NHC didn't upgrade TD 5 to a TS, but that was based totally on the uncertainty of center position. TD 5 looks much better this morning. In my opinion the center is under the western part of the thunderstorms, the thunderstorm area coverage is expanding. Outflow looks good, except maybe a little weak in the western semicirle. The models are still all over the place with the trough in the western Caribbean, but as the NHC said they are in slightly better agreement. The bad news is they agree on the trough moving westward leaving a lighter shear environment for Ernesto-to-be to strengthen in 2 days. If this solution holds, I think we will be looking at a Cat 2 hurricane near Jamaica and the Caymans (be careful Crab). This scenario is also supported by the slowing of TD 5's forward motion. If it slows down, its chances of running into the shear in front of it are lowered. If not, the strong westerly shear ahead of it will do its work and either completely kill or cripple the system. In either case, this storm will reach the Gulf of Mexico, and no matter how weak, anything has a chance to explode with the SSTs in there. My track forecast thinking remains the same. The upper ridging should keep TD 5 on a WNW track just south of Jamaica and through the Yucatan Channel. It may scrape either Cuba or the Yucatan, but not by much. From there it will be up to the ridge where it makes landfall. All in all I am in very close agreement with the NHC. As for intensity I think TD 5 will become Ernesto on the next advisory. Slow to moderate strengthening should occur as it runs the gauntlet, and I am forecasting a Cat 1 hurricane south of Jamaica, though it could be stronger or weaker depending on the shear.

We shall see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD tropical formation probability and other maps

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

National Hurricane Center


Tropical Depression #5:



Click for Loop



Click for Loop
000
WTNT35 KNHC 251434
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DUTCH
NETHERLAND ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





Tropical Storm Debby:



Click for Loop



Click for Loop

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251455
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...DEBBY WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1365
MILES...2195 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.9 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN







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Updated: 6:02 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

Permalink

TD 5 Fights On

By: Levi32, 5:48 AM GMT on August 25, 2006

TD #5 continues to slowly organize tonight. Convection has developed over the center, but the western semicirle is still pretty much void of thunderstorms. However water vapor imagery indicate that the dry air caused by the upper high west of TD 5 is thinning, and a much more moist environment awaits the system in the central to western Caribbean. It is now a battle between TD 5 and the hostilities it is facing. Unlike every other battle this season, TD 5 has struck the first blow this time, building convection over the center and defying the easterlies trying to push the center out in combination with the westerly shear. The storm will now battle the "gauntlet" tomorrow when it passes between South America and Hispanola, a very hostile place for tropical cyclones due to the proximity to land and mountains. And after that comes the battle with the upper low. Models still don't have a good handle on this and it could go either way. If TD 5 survives the gauntlet, there's a good chance it could survive the upper low. The reason is storms that come through the gauntlet without weakening generally don't fiz out later. That says something about a system when it passes the gauntlet. I think TD 5 will be one of those systems. I have no major changes to my forecast yet. I expect slow to moderate strengthening as TD 5 moves through the gauntlet tomorrow, and I am still holding to a track just south of Jamaica, very similar to the NHC. If things go really well, a hurricane by tomorrow evening is possible, but I think a 50-60mph TS is more likely considering the difficulties it is facing.

We shall see what happens!

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Tropical Depression #5:



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000
WTNT35 KNHC 251434
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DUTCH
NETHERLAND ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





Tropical Storm Debby:



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000
WTNT34 KNHC 251455
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...DEBBY WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1365
MILES...2195 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.9 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN







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Updated: 3:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

Permalink

97L Could Become TD 5 Later Today

By: Levi32, 3:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2006

Invest 97L: Invest 97L continues to get better organized, and has a stronger surface reflection. The wave is currently moving past Barbados, and should be clear of the Antilles Islands by tonight. The hurricane hunters will be flying into the system in just over an hour to see if a TD or TS has formed. This should give us a much better picture of the storm. Right now the models are still all over the place. The GFDL's run to run consistency has been poor at best, and the global models can't decide how much the trough to the north will act on 97L. The GFDL was forecasting a hurricane moving toward Hispanola, but the latest 6z run dissipates it! How weird lol! The SHIPS model continues to bring 97L up to Cat 2 strength. My take is still the same. I think the system will skirt the South American coast today through tomorrow morning, and gradually move away from it WNW taking it just south of Jamaica. And from there? We'll all cross that bridge when we come to it lol. This storm still has the potential to become a serious hurricane, especially in the western Caribbean, so its future track will concern almost everybody in the area if this system develops. As for the intensity, we should get a much better idea after the hurricane hunters send us their data from today's flight. I do think this has a good chance to become TD 5 today, and TS Ernesto by tomorrow

Tropical Storm Debby: Debby hasn't changed much since last night. The cool waters she is moving over have held her intensity to about the same. During the next 24 hours she will move over warmer waters again, and she could strengthen some during that time. The GFDL forecasts a Cat 2 hurricane, and the SHIPS just below hurricane strength. Whatever she does, the trough will transport her out of the tropical Atlantic well east of Bermuda.

We shall see what happens!

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 241433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...DEBBY REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST OR ABOUT 955
MILES...1535 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.4 N...37.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN





Permalink

97L a Big Threat

By: Levi32, 4:51 AM GMT on August 24, 2006

97L: The disturbance approaching the windward Islands has become much better organized today. Convection has persisted and consolidated a little more. The only thing this sytem lacks to become a tropical depression is a surface circulation. So far the circulation is only at the mid-levels. Once the circulation works down the the surface, I am confident a TD will result very quickly. I think this will become TD #5 sometime tomorrow, and TS Ernesto is a strong possibility during the next couple of days. The only thing that will hinder 97L in its trek across the eastern Caribbean will be its proximity to South America and the dry air to the north. The farther west it goes, the thinner the dry air will get and the more room it will have. Wind shear is still fairly low (5-10 knots), and the zone of high shear is far enough north that it shouldn't affect the system much. If it makes it to the western Caribbean, we could seriously be looking at our first hurricane, and just possibly, our first major hurricane of the season. The models including the GFDL are in fair agreement on a track somewhere near Jamaica in a couple days. The GFDL and the SHIPS model forecasts a Cat 2 hurricane by that time, and that is a strong possibility. Bottom line, this is the biggest potential for a serious storm we've had all season, and all residents in the Caribbean should watch this one closely.

Debby: Debby's circulation has decayed somewhat today. Convection almost completely died earlier but has since jacked back up over the center. However the cloud tops aren't very cold and the stable, dry air and cooler waters seem to be taking their toll on the system. I expect Debby to remain a weak to moderate tropical storm until it hits warmer waters in a couple days, where it might strengthen a little bit. Regardless, Debby will only bother ships and fishies as it passes well east of Bermuda when the trough picks it up.

We shall see what happens!

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 240234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM AST WED AUG 23 2006

...DEBBY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST OR ABOUT 730
MILES...1175 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N...34.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Updated: 4:55 AM GMT on August 24, 2006

Permalink

Tropics Becoming Active

By: Levi32, 3:16 PM GMT on August 23, 2006

The tropics are heating up as the African wave train intensifies, and we already have a TS and an Invest to worry about.

Debby: Debby continues on a WNW track this morning. A curve to the NW is expected by tomorrow, and the global models continue to forecast a trough to pick up Debby in 5 days and turn her NE. The NOGAPS and UKMET models hold Debby to a more westerly track, but again I think this is unlikely considering Debby's steady improvement and strengthening. Debby could strengthen a little bit today, but then she will cross over cooler waters and weaken some. She will be moving over warmer waters in 3-4 days, which will provide her with her best shot at hurricane status before the shear and baraclonic influences of the trough begin to affect her in 5 days.

97L: This is the one to watch during the next several days. The wave is approaching the southern Antilles Islands, and has become slightly better organized this morning with thunderstorms consolidating a little more around the broad mid-level circulation. However, there is no surface circulation and only a small turning of wind on the latest QuikScat pass. There is currently a zone of strong shear just to the north of the system, and a track too far north by 97L will bring it under shear that may destroy it. If it can stay south of about 15n, I think it has a good chance to survive. Once through the always hostile area of the eastern Caribbean, the wave will have a much better chance at developing in the western Caribbean. At that point, this could become a very serious storm. Conditions are very favorable in the western Caribbean right now and are forecasted to just get better over the next week. I am concerned that if this potent wave which has survived since coming off the African coast gets into the western Caribbean we could be dealing with a serious hurricane in several days, but we shall see. Right now models are in fair agreement taking 97L WNW and near Jamaica in 3 days. The GFDL is the outlier taking the system NW into the northern Islands as a TS, which doesn't make any sense to me. 97L has a chance to become a TD at any time if it can get some surface rotation going. I think we should watch this one very closely.

We shall see what happens!

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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 23 2006

...DEBBY SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT 500
MILES...805 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...31.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN











Updated: 3:26 PM GMT on August 23, 2006

Permalink

New invest could develop

By: Levi32, 3:14 AM GMT on August 21, 2006

Invest 96L has stormed off the Africa coast tonight. If I didn't no better, I'd say it's a TD already just by looking at satellite pics! Well, it's not quite....yet....but I have a feeling this could finally break the long string of so called "blobs with potential," but didn't ever develop. This system is at 11n, far enough north for development, and the GFS marginally develops this system and moves it WNW and then NW eventually recurving a few hundred miles off the US coast. Once again I think the models are overplaying the weakness in the ridge early. After a couple more runs, I think they will shift back south a bit. Don't say fishy storm yet lol....but I hope it is. So far convection is holding and growing as the center is now fully over water. I expect at least one if not THIS one of the new waves coming off Africa to become a tropical depression sometime during this week.

We shall see what happens!

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Latest visible pic of African wave (updated every 3 hours)

HI-RES IR loop of African wave (images updated hourly)

Full-disk IR loop of African wave (images updated hourly)



Permalink

Caribbean Disturbance and 96L

By: Levi32, 12:06 AM GMT on August 21, 2006

This has to be short due to shortage of time at my end. In a nutshell, the area models have been hinting at for tropical development in the SW caribbean are acting up. A tropical wave in the area has been sparking convection all day, and a mid-level center has developed near 14.7n 80w. Convection is currently on the decrease near the center, but could fire up again at any time. There are no signs of a well defined surface circulation yet, but I think there is a chance this could develop during the next 2-3 days, given the favorable environment it is in right now, and is forecasted to get even better.

On another note: the African wave we were watching is now open and being suppressed by a cloud of Sahara dust to its north. It should still be watched over the next few days, but is not an imediate threat at this time. More impressive right now is a new wave coming off the African coast near 10n. There is clearly spin to it on IR loops, but we will have to see if it can sustain convection like its predecesor.

We shall see what happens!



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Updated: 1:26 AM GMT on August 21, 2006

Permalink

African wave

By: Levi32, 10:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2006

Update 6:45pm Eastern Time: The strong tropical wave off Africa continues to sustain deep convection. There are still no new QuikScat passes to anylize the circulation. Satellite continues to show strong rotation. SSTs are warmer ahead of the system, and wind shear and dry air are at a minimum. Right now the overall environment is looking healthy, and this wave has significant potential to develop into a tropical depression during the next 24-48 hours as it heads west to WNW.

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Latest visible pic of African wave (updated every 3 hours)

HI-RES IR loop of African wave (images updated hourly)

Full-disk IR loop of African wave (images updated hourly)

Updated: 1:44 AM GMT on August 19, 2006

Permalink

Development possible with African wave

By: Levi32, 3:57 PM GMT on August 18, 2006

First of all, 93L is by no means dead, and it won't be until it makes landfall. Bouys, surface obs, wind profiles all have 25-30 MPH sustained winds on the west and south sides of this system. With all due respect, the NHC should have upgraded this to a TD yesterday morning or earlier, and now the Florida coast is in for a much worse storm than they bargained for. I was reading Joe Bastardi's post this morning, and he brings up a good point for once. Since when has convection over the center been a requirement for a tropical depression? The definition is; system must have sustained winds 25 MPH or greater in at least one quadrant, surface circulation must be closed, and the core must be warmer than the outside of the storm. Plain and simple. Convection has almost nothing to do with upgrading a system. Sure convection is necessary for intensification, but it is not a REQUIREMENT for the NHC to upgrade a system. This system was and has been a TD for almost 2 days, and the residents of Florida are going to get TD conditions whether it's upgraded or not.

Ok enough said. 93L will die wants it moves over land, and regeneration over the Gulf of Mexico seems unlikely to me at this time. The wave which moved off of the African coast last night has not lost any convection, and is looking quite potent still. Yesterday's QuikScat pass showed 60 MPH winds on the west side of this wave, but no closed circulation. There is still well defined rotation on visible loops. Today will be crucial in this wave's life for a couple reasons. One, the wind shear is still a little high, but the wave will be moving out of this area soon. Two, just about all of the African waves I've seen this season have lost their convection within a day of coming off the land. So far that hasn't happened with this system, and if it sustains strong convection through today, that says a lot about the future of this system in my opinion. The 6z GFS goes wild with this again this morning bringing a Cat 3 hurricane brushing up close to the Carolinas. This will definately be a system to watch over the next week. I have a really strong feeling this will be our next named storm.

We shall see what happens!

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Latest visible pic of African wave (updated every 3 hours)

HI-RES IR loop of African wave (images updated hourly)

Full-disk IR loop of African wave (images updated hourly)

Updated: 3:59 PM GMT on August 18, 2006

Permalink

Invest 93L and Invest 94L

By: Levi32, 4:11 PM GMT on August 14, 2006

Things are getting slightly more interesting this morning. 92L has been swallowed up by dry air and no more thunderstorm activity is ascociated with the wave. We will still keep an eye on it, but I think its life is over. Now on to new things! 93L is looking better this morning. Thunderstorms are developing again, and a new low has developed 150 miles off of Vero Beach, Florida. The old low that the NHC has been tracking is still out there, but I think the new low will become dominant shortly. More thunderstorms are developing with this new low, and this changes the track story a little bit. Since this low is closer to Florida and farther south than the old one, it is becoming less likely that the trough to the NE will pick it up. Therefore I think it is reasonable to say that the current southward motion may continue. The models are still forecasting the track of the old low into the Carolinas, so we'll have to see what the runs say about this new low later on. The system is stuck between two areas of very high shear, and shear over it is still 10-15 knots, which should make any development slow to occur. However, the new low positioned farther south is coming out of the small alley of low shear and is moving into a larger area of lower shear over and east of southern Florida and Cuba. If this continues the new low will not have as hard of a time developing. I will closely monitor the progress of this system. A new invest(94L) has been added this morning as well. It is a new very impressive looking wave emerging off the Africa coast. Wind shear is favorable at under 10 knots, and SSTs are warm enough as long as it doesn't gain latitude too quickly before passing the Cape Verde Islands. This will also be a system to watch during the next few days as it moves WNW.

We shall see what happens!

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93L IR floater loop

93L visible RBG floater loop

NASA HI-RES zoomed-in visible loop of 93L



Updated: 4:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2006

Permalink

Invest 92L and Invest 93L

By: Levi32, 4:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2006

The area of disturbed weather we have been watching off the Carolina coast is now Invest 93L. Convection is increasing but nothing organized has appeared yet. Wind shear is fairly low (10-15 knots), but increases rapidly to the north. Models continue to develop this system as early as tomorrow. The track could be anywhere from NE towards Bermuda to SW over Florida. The closer this system is to the Florida coast when(if) it develops the more likely it will be to track south-southwestard over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A storm farther away from the coast is more likely to be picked up by the trough and carried northeast towards Bermuda. This system could also track anywhere in between those two solutions. The NHC currently forecasts S-SE movement.

Invest 92L is a every bit of a surprise this morning. Last night the wave coming into the Antilles looked quite dead, but since then some convection has developed over a weak low pressure area. There are no signs of a surface circulation yet, but visible loops hint at a possible low-level swirl east of the convection. Wind shear is favorable at 10 knots, but the wave is imbedded in an area of dry air which it will have to overcome before developing. Models generally take this west to WNW through the Caribbean.

We shall see what happens!

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Updated: 4:47 PM GMT on August 13, 2006

Permalink

Heavy rain on the way

By: Levi32, 7:43 PM GMT on August 10, 2006

Quick update on the tropics: Invest 91L has become very disorganized overnight and all signs of a surface circulation are gone. The wave will continue westward through the Caribbean, but shear will inhibit further development. Unless another burst of deep convection occurs or this wave miraculously survives the shear, it appears that its chances for development are gone. The rest of the tropics are relatively quiet. Some models are forming a tropical cyclone from a front that will move off the east coast in a few days. Otherwise there are no threats for development for the next several days.

Back all the way up to me now. South central and southwestern Alaska are about to get hammered by a round of heavy rain during the next 2 days. A low riding up the Aleutians is strengthening and getting enhanced by a polar vortex coming down from Siberia. Substantial moisture has already spread over the Kenai Peninsula and Bristol Bay. The first rain echos are showing up on King Salmon radar. This storm will move up into Bristol Bay and into the interior, where it will sit for a few days. The associated front and precip will spread over the entire area bringing heavy rains. I expect rainfall amounts could exceed 1 1/2--2 inches in places. This could be the wettest storm of the summer, so get your umbrellas out!

We shall see what happens!





Updated: 7:45 PM GMT on August 10, 2006

Permalink

91L and Super-Typhoon Saomai

By: Levi32, 4:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2006

UPDATE 4:28pm Eastern Time: The recon did not find a closed circulation in Invest 91L, therefore it will not be upgraded to TD status. However, winds exceeding tropical storm force have been recorded and will affect the Antilles Islands during the next several hours. A mid-level vortex which formed during this morning's convection is now evident on visible satellite imagery. This is not the center, just a mid-level feature. If convection can re-develop over this vortex, the surface center may close off. However the current shear is inhibiting this from happening. If 91L can survive the afternoon, the duirnal max tonight may provide another run at TD status. The models have dramatically shifted south closer to my forecasted track. The rest of my previous post remains below:



Invest 91L finally managed to blow some more convection this morning in the face of 20 knots of wind shear. The surface spin is evident again on satellite imagery, and the beginnings of outflow are noticable as well. There are no recent QuikScat passes available, but the NRL site has 91L as a 35-knot 1000 mb tropical storm, although it is still labeled Invest 91L. The NHC is sending out a recon plane this afternoon to investigate. Models are divided on this system. The GFS and UKMET take it across western Hispanola and then dissipate it over Cuba. The NOGAPS takes it further south over Jamaica and then loses it. The Canadian loses it. The NAM takes it just over southern Haiti, and then westward between Cuba and Jamaica. None of these models strengthen the system that much. The GFDL is more interesting, as it takes 91L south of all landmasses, but loses it south of Haiti and doesn't strengthen it. All intensity models have at least a 45-knot storm by 5 days out, and the SHIPS model has a hurricane by that time. Wind shear will be a big factor here. The shear may weaken some in a couple days, but 91L will not have a favorable environment until it gets farther west into either the western Caribbean or Cuba. Until it reaches that point, it is in danger of being ripped apart by the current shear.

This whole track issue is very tricky because of a weakness developing in the Bermuda High due to a trough passing by to the north in 2-3 days. This trough isn't going anywhere fast, so at least 2 days with a weakness in the ridge is what the models are seeing for the track into the Islands. Now, I am leaning more towards the NOGAPS and NAM solutions. Reason? Because I think the other models are overplaying the weakness to the north. They did this with Chris remember? The GFS and the other southerly models ended up being right with the track over Cuba, while the other models had a Florida Straights or southern Florida track. I think this is the case again here. I just don't see a track that far north into that weakness when 91L is already so far south and still tracking almost due west.

Ok on to Saomai. After Bopha got ripped apart over Taiwan, Saomai had no more competition to deal with. Shear is only 10 knots, and an outflow channel has developed north of the system. The result was a cloud-free eye forming, and a bombing out to Category 5 this morning. The ridge over eastern China is building eastward, which should turn Saomai to a more westward track. The JTWC takes Saomai into a town on the Chinese coast called Wenzhou. My track is a little farther south into the town of Fuzhou. In any case, at least a strong Cat 4 is going to hit the populated coast of China.

We shall see what happens!

Links and images regarding both these systems are below:

Live Recon Reports

Antilles Radar

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center




Click for Loop



Click for Loop

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates

Joint Typhoon Warning Center



Click for loop



Click for Loop

Updated: 8:31 PM GMT on August 09, 2006

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91L not looking too good

By: Levi32, 4:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2006

Invest 91L is fighting easterly shear right now. Convection has failed to increase during the duirnal max this morning, although what little convection left is closer to the LLC than yesterday. Models continue to dissipate this system, with only the GFDL developing it. Even that model only brings it to a weak TS and then dissipates it when it moves under the troughiness east of the Islands. It is now looking more likely that even if 91L develops, it will be severly weakened or ripped apart by the upper trough east of Puerto Rico causing southwesterly shear over the area, as well as a batch of dry air. The future is not looking hopeful for 91L, as it has been for almost every tropical wave this season. Let's hope it stays that way so we can get a break from last year!

We shall see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center




Click for Loop



Click for Loop

Updated: 4:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2006

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I Propose.....

By: Levi32, 3:44 AM GMT on August 07, 2006

...that we do a little experiment. Now this might sound crazy, but I think it would be fun and is worth a try. I (and anybody who is willing) am going to forecast tropical systems WITHOUT MODELS for a while. Starting with Invest 91L, I am not going to use the models in my forecasting. I know this sounds weird, but I thought it would be fun to see what it was like before computer models were invented. However if 91L develops into a hurricane or threatens land or something, then we can look at the models because it is a tense and important situation. But unless that happens, we will take stormtop's approach and completely ignore the models. That means don't even look at them. The only time we should ever read about them is in the NHC's discussions. We will pretend that the people at the NHC are the only people who have access to the models. This would not only let us experience what it was like before the age of computers, but will also sharpen our other skills such as anylizing satellite imagery, since we will be using that more than ever.

This idea just popped in today so I am open to suggestions. Anyone who would like to go through this experiment with me please post in my blog. I think it will be fun and a good learning experience. We are a weather learning community right? Should be...interesting to say the least LOL.

As for the tropics: 91L has developed a new burst of strong convection nearer to the LLC. Light easterly shear is keeping thunderstorms to the west side of the center, but I think the rest of the system will fill in soon. I expect TD 4 to form by tomorrow night or Tuesday morning. There is a tropical wave moving past the Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico, but is no threat to develop at this time. An active ITCZ follows Invest 91L with another tropical wave near 23w. There is substantial convection with this wave, but nothing organized yet.

We shall see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center




Click for Loop



Click for Loop

Updated: 3:46 AM GMT on August 07, 2006

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Invest 91L / Ghost of Chris

By: Levi32, 4:02 PM GMT on August 06, 2006

A new invest has been added in the central Atlantic this morning. This is the wave that I said to watch as it came off Africa a few days ago. Spinning 650 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands, it now has a broad surface circulation elongated west to east. QuikScat passes only indicate 20-knot winds around the system. The area is relatively devoid of convection except for a small burst on the west side of the circulation over night, which is dissipating at the moment. There is much more moisture available to this system than there was for Chris, and wind shear is only 5-10 knots. SSTs are plenty warm at 28 degrees C. This system is also the largest circulation we have seen in the Atlantic so far this year. Early models are taking this west toward the islands with a few moving it NW. Based on this information I expect a tropical depression to form by Tuesday. I will also go so far to say that I believe this system will be our next named storm of the season, and possibly our first hurricane.

Well the ghost of Chris didn't sustain its convection overnight, but now that it is moving away from Cuba south of Key West, the convection could reform this afternoon as it did yesterday. If Chris doesn't get its act together today, it may not be as big of a problem for Texas as it could be, but if it regenerates today, we could still be looking at a hurricane hitting Texas.

We'll see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center




Click for Loop



Click for Loop



Click for Loop




Click for Loop

Updated: 4:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2006

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Chris is Dead, but Could Resurrect

By: Levi32, 7:52 PM GMT on August 05, 2006

The NHC finally pronounced Chris dead this morning. The once vibrant storm has suffered the violent death of being ripped apart by wind shear after dry air weakened it. However, I am by no means discounting the ghost of Chris. Let's step back a minute and pretend Chris never formed from that wave, and the open wave near Cuba is the same wave that hasn't developed yet. If Chris hadn't developed yet from this wave, we would all be very excited and pumped up about it. Why? Because when you look at it, this is a very well organized wave with a very pronounced surface reflection. It has a good 850 mb vort signature, and it is the first tropical wave of this season so far that is actually in a favorable environment for once. It also has a good batch of "popcorn" convection going all around it, showing that the shear has weakened considerably. If we weren't all sober about Chris dying, this would be the top story on WU right now because of the proximity to Florida and the chance of exploding over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico once it clears Cuba.

My point here is that we don't have a TS anymore, but we do have perhaps the most healthy looking wave of the season in the most favorable environment any wave has been in so far. Once clear of Cuba, I think this wave will have a very good chance of revamping into a TD. Shear is low and will continue to get lower, and the upper low ahead of it is forecast to weaken and move rapidly NW out of the way. The warm waters of the gulf are a huge concern with this one. The fact that the water is much warmer in the northern gulf and near land than it is farther south is very surprising and bad news for the gulf coast. I think that any system developing out of this will head towards southern to central Texas.

Now let's look at what some of the models have to say about all this. The ETA re-develops a strong TS which makes landfall in southern Texas. This is a re-occuring pattern in this model, which develops and redevelops many systems and many of them don't develop. The NOGAPS model strengthens the wave a tiny bit, but not too much, and moves it into Mexico. The GFS dissipates it within 72 hours, as do all the rest of the models. Shear is currently 10-15 knots, and shouldn't get any higher than that over the gulf for the next few days. If anything the environment should get even better for development.

Ok, I've laid it down and I'm sticking to it. I am forecasting the redevelopment of Tropical Storm Chris, and I will not back off it until I am forced to do so. Well there you have it. That's my humble view of things. We'll see what happens!

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center





Click for Loop




Click for Loop





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Chris Dead???

By: Levi32, 3:07 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

So much for hurricane Chris!!! And I guess I'm a fool for thinking it would go south of Hispanola last night. Oh well we all have our moments. Now what the heck happened!!?? Ok here's what happened. The shear did not do it. The dry air is the enemy here. When Chris grew bigger yesterday, instead of filtering out and overcoming the dry air, he sucked it in. A larger storm will suck more dry air in than a small one. This is how Chris managed to survive until yesterday. The 20 knots of shear did the rest, but was not directly responsible for Chris dying (maybe not completely dead).

So....what next? Well it looks to me like Chris is already only a weak TD, and will continue to follow a WNW course. During the next couple days the environment could become more favorable, and the dry air replaced with moist air. This could allow Chris to regenerate, but with all systems stripped of convection, this is highly unlikely. Give him a chance.....he's in shock, but he will have a hard time making a come back out of this one. The danger is if his circulation somehow remains intact until he is done weeving through the islands and reaches the Gulf of Mexico. At this point the warm water and low shear in the area could reignite Chris pretty quickly. However that is still 4 days away, and it is unlikely that a circulation stripped of convection will survive that long.

Well folks this is just another chapter in the book of hurricanes. We learn from it, and appreciate how complex and amazing these storms really are. On a side note, the rest of the tropics are quiet and the only threat to development any time soon is the big wave coming off of Africa. Ok, there it is, Chris is dead. But don't give up on him yet. You know how these pesky systems can be once in a while. We'll see what happens!

Puerto Rico Long-Range Radar Loop

Live Recon Reports

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates


SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center





Click for Loop




Click for Loop


Updated: 3:10 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

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Chris Could be a Hurricane by Tonight.

By: Levi32, 4:31 PM GMT on August 02, 2006

We now have the best looking tropical system of the year so far. Tropical Storm Chris now has winds of 65 MPH and a pressure of 1001 mb. Now remember this pressure is actually a low pressure because Chris is embedded in an area of abnormally high pressures. In a normal world this would probably be 996 mb or somewhere around there. The shear and dry air are relaxing around Chris, and he is now moving into the col area the NHC spoke of. The cloud shield is now spreading NW, encompassing the previously empty NW quadrant. The storm is also growing bigger, with tropical storm force winds extending 75 miles from the center, up from 25 miles last night. This is actually going to help Chris now. Yesterday a bigger system would have sucked more dry air in, which probably would have choked Chris to death. But now, as the dry air is left behind to the east, a bigger Chris can now draw more moisture and heat into him, which will help in his strengthening greatly.

I think Chris is going to successfully walk the tightrope. He will stay in the col region, and I think he will avoid Hispanola, but Cuba is going to be harder to pass up without making a landfall. I am right on with the NHC track this morning. The NHC takes it right through the Florida Straights. I think a landfall in either Cuba or south Florida is still possible, but right through the straights is my best forecast for now. The models have shifted north this morning to follow this solution, and I trust them a little better this morning now that Chris is easier for the models to detect. The 0z model runs tonight should be very interesting after the NOAA jet imputs information from the environment around Chris. Those are the ones to watch for any significant changes.

We will see what happens! Chris is now in view on Puerto Rico Radar, so be sure to monitor that throughout the day. Images and links are below:

NASA HI-RES Close-up Visible Loop (may be slow connecting to site because it is very busy)

Puerto Rico Long-Range Radar Loop

Live Recon Reports

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates


SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center





Click for Loop




Click for Loop

Updated: 4:32 PM GMT on August 02, 2006

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Chris Strengthens.....Possible Hurricane by Tonight or Tomorrow

By: Levi32, 10:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2006

Tropical Storm Chris has....shall we say....freaked out this afternoon. The recon found hurricane force winds at 1500 feet, prompting the NHC to raise intensity to 60 MPH. The temperature difference in the center of the storm is 6 degrees C, characteristic of some Cat 1 hurricanes! The center is also drying out, a sign that a mid-level eye feature may be forming. A solid blob of convection has engulfed the center, and looks to be the beginning of a CDO. Wind shear has continued to slowly abate, and Chris continues to defy the dry air to the north, although the north side of the storm is still rather void of convection. In response to this rapid intensification, a fairly large wobble to the northwest has occured, which could be critical to how much of Chris's rath will be felt by Puerto Rico.

Personally I think Chris will be a solid Cat 1 hurricane by tonight. I think the NHC will upgrade it at the 11pm advisory, but if not they will on the 2am advisory at the latest. I think the track will be through the Florida straights, despite most of the models taking Chris WSW through Hispanola, Cuba, and even Jamaica! One thing we have to realize is that Chris is in an environment of very high pressures, and as a result the models are having a difficult time seeing the storm, which either leads them to dissipate the storm, or cause track errors. We'll see what happens tonight! Images and links are below:

Live Recon Reports

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates


SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

Martinique Radar (Antilles Islands)

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center





Click for Loop




Click for Loop

NASA HI-RES Visible Loop

Updated: 5:07 AM GMT on August 02, 2006

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Tropical Storm Chris

By: Levi32, 4:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2006

We finally have another tropical storm to worry about, and his name is Chris. TD 3 developed last night from a tough tropical wave east of the Antilles. This wave was shoved aside by most of us as no threat to develop, but develop it did, in the face of 20-knot shear and lots of dry air to its north. TD 3 strengthened to TS status during the night, and the NHC forecasts some strengthening over the next couple days.The storm hasn't had any problem maintaining convection since yesterday, but all the convection is in the south and east quadrants, with almost none in the NW quadrant. This is because of the dry air to the north and the northerly wind shear affecting the storm. Chris will be under the influence of these two things until it gets past Puerto Rico. After that, Chris will have to dance right between two upper level lows to survive. One wrong move, and Chris will be under intense shear that will prevent intensification and could even rip Chris apart. However, if Chris can walk the balance beam between the two upper level lows, he will be in a favorable position in the col, with little wind shear to deal with. Also dry air should not be as big of a factor past Puerto Rico. If Chris moves into the favorable col, I am afraid we might have a hurricane heading towards southern Florida.

The track forecast is critical to the intensity forecast with this storm, not only because of the two upper level lows, but also because Chris has a lot of islands in the way. Some models, such as the GFDL, take Chris near or over Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The latest run of the GFDL even takes Chris WSW over Hispanola and then between Cuba and Jamaica. Other models just dissipate the storm all together, and those that don't dissipate it right away take it north of Hispanola and into the Bahamas before dissipating it. I am going with the northern solution. Right now it looks like Chris will pass just north of Puerto Rico, and I don't think it will make landfall there. I think Chris will maintain a WNW motion for a while and then turn more westward. To me extreme south Florida seems like a reasonable destination if Chris survives that long. After that it is too far out to say where it will go. All I will say now is if Chris makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, shear is very low in that region right now, and I see little to inhibit a healthy, strong hurricane from forming in the gulf.

Chris has a long way to go, and lots of obstacles in the way. We'll just have to see what happens! A recon plane is scheduled to investigate Chris at 2pm eastern time, which should provide us with some valuable information on the structure and intensity of the storm. Images and links regarding Chris are below:

Live Recon Reports

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

CIMSS Dvorak Intensity Estimates


SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps

Martinique Radar (Antilles Islands)

CIMSS Satellite Derived Winds and Analysis

National Hurricane Center





Click for Loop




Click for Loop

NASA HI-RES Visible Loop

Updated: 5:59 PM GMT on August 01, 2006

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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