Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Mala Aiming for Burma

By: Levi32, 3:34 PM GMT on April 28, 2006

Well here we go again. Strong Cat 4 Mala is heading for Burma and is still strengthening. She is a very weird storm with a pinhole eye throughout her lifetime. Outflow is very impressive with both poleward and equatorward channels looking very healthy. It would seem that Mala would want to take advantage of the outflow and expand in size, but she continues to maintain a very small CDO. She is now at 125 knots according to the Navy which was the previous intensity forecasted at her landfall. Now she will be even stronger with yet another Cat 5 possible before landfall. There is higher shear near the coast though so that could have an affect on Mala but we will see. Here are links and maps regarding Mala:



Floater Water Vapor Loop of Mala

MIMIC-IR Loops of Mala

CIMSS Upper Winds, Shear, and other Maps

Dvorak Intensity Estimates


SSD Dvorak Positions and Intensities


Independentwx
(a great site with information and maps on all current tropical cyclones)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensities

SSTs and Marine Forecasts




CLICK FOR LARGE IMAGE:

Updated: 3:54 PM GMT on April 28, 2006

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Gulf SSTs Could Surpass Last Year's

By: Levi32, 4:54 PM GMT on April 27, 2006


The SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are rising fast and I don't think they are going to slow down much any time soon. We are way ahead of last year’s temps, and I think that an area hitting 95 degrees is not out of the question this year. In atmosweather’s blog yesterday MichaelSTL made a good point that the years 2000 and 2002 had gulf temps that were just as warm as this year’s. I looked over those years and noticed that they were both El Nino Years, especially 2002. I will provide a brief overview of each.

In late April of the year 2000, the gulf was warmer than normal mostly in the western half. The rest of the Atlantic was much colder than normal. Also a weak El Nino signal was evident off of South America. In May, the gulf continued to warm, and the rest of the Atlantic came closer to normal temperatures, though still mostly colder than normal. The El Nino signal was weaker, but still there. In July, the gulf was still warmer than normal, and the Caribbean and eastern Atlantic were colder than normal. The El Nino signal was very faint by now, and ENSO conditions were about neutral. By August the gulf had begun to cool, and the Caribbean was warming up to normal temps. El Nino and La Nina would fight all the rest of the year without any one making progress. By October the gulf was very cold and the rest of the Atlantic was normal.

The year 2002 is much more interesting. In late April, the Atlantic anomaly pattern was almost the same as it is now, except there was more warm water off the southeast US coast then there is now. There was a decent El Nino signal going at this time. In May the El Nino signal was strengthening, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the entire western Atlantic had begun to cool rapidly. By June the entire Caribbean and eastern gulf were much colder than normal, and the El Nino was getting strong. July through October had most of the Atlantic at near normal SSTs and the gulf was normal to below normal. The El Nino continued to strengthen. By November El Nino was very strong and everything fell below normal in the gulf.

Well the point is clear isn’t it. THERE IS NO EL NINO THIS YEAR. There is a weak La Nina and if it holds, we could be looking at last year’s temps again and possibly higher in the Gulf of Mexico. That, in combination with a strong Gulf Loop Current, and a weaker Gulf Stream, should be enough to boil those SSTs.



AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Tropical Forecast Models for the Atlantic (including shear forecasts out to 6 days)

SSD Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other charts.


Global Favorable Areas for Tropical Development Map and forecasts out to 120 hours.

Penn State Atlantic Tropical Page

Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products

CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products

CIMSS Atlantic Satellite Analysis

NASA Interactive Satellite

GOES Tropical Satellite Sectors (has all regions, satellite enhancements, and 4-5 more floater satellites that are never used on other sites)

RTOFS SST Analysis and Forecasts for the Atlantic



This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:



This is the water vapor quantity for the Atlantic:


Updated: 5:39 PM GMT on April 27, 2006

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Gulf SSTs and Threat Areas

By: Levi32, 8:14 PM GMT on April 26, 2006


I have noticed all the hype about the SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico. I too am very concerned for this year. The current temps are way higher than last year’s at this time. Take a look at the current SSTs for the gulf:



As you can see temps of TS threshold (26 degrees C) are extending quite far to the north already. The entire gulf is over 22 degrees Celsius and warming very fast. This bodes very bad for the gulf coast again this hurricane season.

This year, however, I think that the western gulf and the west coast of Florida will be the primary targets. The central gulf coast will not be threatened near as much as last year, but that is no opportunity to breathe sighs of relief just yet. There will be a substantial danger to the entire coast this year, and everyone should be prepared.

The reason for the activity shifting to the western gulf is the eastern US trough. The mean trough is supposed to stay near the east coast all summer. This is the reason for the danger of a New England hurricane as well as the threat to the entire east coast north of Florida. This will also act to direct most storms away from the central gulf coast. Any storms aiming for that area will either get pulled towards Florida’s west coast, or the ridge will force them to the western gulf. Therefore the primary threat areas this year in my opinion are the western gulf, the west Florida coast, and the entire US eastern sea board north of Florida including New England.

Once again everyone is at risk this year even the areas that aren’t forecasted to be primary threat areas. After last year I hope that everyone is ready for this year. Please prepare and keep your guard up because this is going to be a wild ride folks!



AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Tropical Forecast Models for the Atlantic (including shear forecasts out to 6 days)

Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other charts.


Global Favorable Areas for Tropical Development Map and forecasts out to 120 hours.

Penn State Atlantic Tropical Page

Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products

CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products

CIMSS Atlantic Satellite Analysis

NASA Interactive Satellite

GOES Tropical Satellite Sectors (has all regions, satellite enhancements, and 4-5 more floater satellites that are never used on other sites)

RTOFS SST Analysis and Forecasts for the Atlantic



This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:



This is the water vapor quantity for the Atlantic:


Updated: 8:21 PM GMT on April 26, 2006

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Monica 180 M.P.H. Winds Heading for Darwin

By: Levi32, 4:40 PM GMT on April 23, 2006


I AM LEAVING FOR ANCHORAGE TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO UPDATE THIS BLOG UNTIL TUESDAY. I WILL MISS MONICA'S LANDFALL BUT I CAN'T HELP THAT. I WILL SEE YOU ALL TUESDAY!


TC Monica has surpassed all expectations and has been a solid Cat 5 on the SS Scale for more than 12 hours now. The JTWC currently has her with sustained winds of 180 M.P.H. and gusts to 215 with a pressure of 879 mb. She absolutely bombed last night! Her eye cleared out and the CDO, ahh, the CDO is just perfect! A compass couldn't draw a better circle. She is currently paralleling the coast and has not directly hit any land yet except a small chain of islands last night. The big problem this morning is the doomsday track forecasted by the JTWC that takes Monica right into Darwin as an upper-end Cat 4 on the SS Scale. The only possible thing that can weaken Monica now is either an EWRC, which is unlikely any time soon, or interaction with land, which is a big question heading into Darwin. No matter what happens, Monica will be a major Cat 3 or stronger hurricane moving toward Darwin and they are in for a potential disaster. I also want to point out how bad the JTWC forecasts were for Monica. They said the outflow channel would decouple and it never has. It is perfectly fine right now. Also the proximity to the coast hasn't affected her either. They are just taking after the NHC. Here are links and maps regarding Monica:



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

CIMSS Upper winds, shear, baroclonics, and other products for Australia

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page

Australia SSTs and Marine Forecast





Click for Larger Image:


Updated: 4:27 AM GMT on April 24, 2006

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Monica Cat 5 and Beyond!!!

By: Levi32, 2:38 PM GMT on April 22, 2006

(Updated at 0348 UTC 4-22-06) All I can say is WOW! Monica is past Cat 5 status she is at least Katrina intensity and still bombing! Dvorak estimates have her at Wilma status but that may be pushing it. She will strengthen for at least 12 hours and then either hold intensity or slightly weaken because of interaction with the coast. Darwin could get a direct hit from Monica! Look out! She is coming!



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

CIMSS Upper winds, shear, baroclonics, and other products for Australia

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica

Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page

Australia SSTs and Marine Forecast





Click for Larger Image:


Updated: 10:50 AM GMT on April 23, 2006

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Monica Cat 3 Still Strengthening

By: Levi32, 3:36 PM GMT on April 21, 2006


Note 1713 UTC: Monica's eye is now appearing on IR satellite imagery. Microwave data shows the main feeder band wrapping around the center.

Monica continues to strengthen over the Gulf of Carpentaria. She is now a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. She is still having problems developing a healthy eye but it looks better all the time. She may even have two eye walls right now, which suggest she is going through an EWRC, but that doesn’t seem to make sense right now. The forecast track now takes Monica parallel to the coast on her second landfall, if it even is a landfall. The track now takes it along side the coast almost without even making a landfall first. This would be very bad news for anybody on that coast. A much bigger area would be affected by Monica’s full fury. The JTWC’s forecast reasoning has been saying that Monica would only strengthen a little bit and weaken prior to landfall because the polar outflow channel would be de-coupled from the mid-latitude westerlies, and the inflow would be disrupted by the nearby land. This morning’s JTWC forecast reasoning is much different.

They are now forecasting moderate strengthening instead of weakening! What a difference! I now think that there is a fair chance that Monica will hit cat 4 intensity prior to landfall. She will probably only be an upper-end cat 3, but there is a strong possibility that she will be stronger. Today will be very exciting. Monica should reach peak intensity tonight. Here are links and maps regarding Monica.



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica


Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page





Click for Larger Image:


Updated: 5:44 AM GMT on April 22, 2006

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Monica Strengthens over the Gulf

By: Levi32, 3:25 PM GMT on April 20, 2006


Note: Monica is still stationary and there is no telling how upwelling will affect her. Right now she is still intensifying. She has a nice CDO going and outflow still looks good. Her eye continues to develop and the eye wall is becoming better defined. Unless upwelling occures, this is very good for Monica and very bad for Australia. The rest of my post is unchanged below. I will continue to update the images as necessary.


Tropical Cyclone Monica has bounced back to a cat 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale overnight. She came off the coast yesterday evening, and is now beginning to re-intensify. One factor that is greatly improved for Monica is her internal structure. Before her first landfall, Monica had almost no eye structure at all. What was there was ragged, deformed, and not shown on satellite imagery. Now, after coming off the land, there is a good CDO over the center, and radar shows a very nice looking eye for this early off a land mass. The eye wall is broken to the west, but the east side is very solid looking. I think this is very impressive for a storm that has spent only 12 hours back over water. Another thing that is in favor of Monica’s intensification is that she is nearly stationary at this time. The warm water in the gulf of Carpentaria is very warm and deep enough, so Monica can sit there for a while and not get harmed by cool water. She still has 36 hours until landfall, and the JTWC has her up to 90 knots by landfall. This is very bad news for the towns awaiting Monica’s next landfall. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Monica will be a major cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at her second landfall. She has everything for her except maybe time. We will see what happens. Here are some links and maps regarding Monica:



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica

Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page



Click for larger image:





Updated: 5:25 AM GMT on April 21, 2006

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Monica to Re-strengthen over Gulf of Carpentaria

By: Levi32, 3:24 PM GMT on April 19, 2006

Tropical Cyclone Monica has weakened to a Cat 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. She is currently over the western Cape York Peninsula. Her inner core has suffered badly, and she still has at least 6 hours before she is back over water. She will have 48 hours to regenerate before she makes her second landfall near Nhulunbuy in Arnhem Land on the west side of the Gulf of Carpentaria. It is still possible that Monica will hit cat 3 in the gulf, but chances are lower after how much damage she has sustained so far during her time over land. She is having inner core structure problems and I don't know why. She had the perfect environment leading up to landfall and she will continue to have it in the gulf if not better. It's a complete mystery why she can't seem to form a solid inner structure. If she can get it together in the gulf, then I think she is a guaranteed cat 2 at landfall and maybe a cat 3, but I will try to determine that after Monica has spent a few hours over water. The JTWC only takes her up to 85 knots about 12 hours before landfall, which is borderline cat 1 and cat 2. All the models are forecasting Monica to be stronger in the gulf then she was before her first landfall. We will see what happens once Monica is back over water, and how much damage she has done to the Cape York Peninsula. Here are links and maps regarding Monica:

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Discussion for Monica:

191500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 142.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHEAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUBSTANTIAL BREAKDOWN IN CORE CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED RADIAL OUTFLOW. DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 23P WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AS A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 24, THE RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND CAUSE TC 23P TO TRACK NORTHWEST-WARD. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER ONCE TC 23P MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE INFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Discussion for Monica:

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters over Cape York Peninsula north of Pormpuraaw are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:50am on Thursday the 20th of April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for communities on the western half of Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw. The warning is cancelled for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for Northern Territory coastal and island communities between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy.

At 2am pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, was centred over land near latitude 13.7 south longitude 142.1 east, 60 kilometres southeast of Aurukun. The cyclone is moving west southwest at about 20 km/hr.

The destructive core of Monica with gusts to 160 km/hr is expected to move off the coast in the general vicinity of Cape Keerweer on Thursday morning. The cyclone is then expected to re-intensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts above 130 km/hr could occur north to Weipa and south to Pormpuraaw.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to move in a general westerly direction across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday. Gales may develop about the Northern Territory coast between Groote Eylandt and Milingimbi including Elcho
Island and Nhulunbuy during Friday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 2, for 2am EST Thursday.
Central Pressure : 975 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 13.7 degrees south
longitude 142.1 degrees east
60 km east southeast of Aurukun
Recent Movement : west southwest about 20 km/hr
Destructive winds : out to 75 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 160 kilometres per hour

Very heavy flooding rain will occur over the Peninsula tonight. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should continue to take the appropriate measures and follow the advice given by authorities.

Coastal residents between Weipa and Cape Keerweer are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the west coast of the Peninsula on
Thursday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow directions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do
so by the authorities.

People in the path of this cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different
direction could resume at any time. Listen to the advice and follow the directions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next warning will be issued by 5 am Thursday.



Radar Loop

Monica Floater Water Vapor Loop

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Model Forecast Tracks and Intensity

Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica

Dvorak Intensity Estimates

SSD Positions and Intensity Page








Updated: 5:21 PM GMT on April 19, 2006

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Tropical Cyclone Monica

By: Levi32, 4:03 PM GMT on April 18, 2006

Tropical Cyclone Monica formed a couple days ago and is strengthening rapidly. She is now in my opinion a solid Cat 2 on the Simpson Hurricane Scale. As you will see in the following maps, she is in almost the perfect environment for a tropical system. Zero shear and SSTs in the upper 80's are helping Monica to grow stronger. She has superb outflow in all quadrants except the NE. There is no eye yet on satellite imagery but I think that will come very soon. There is nothing right now to impede her strengthening except the crossing of the Cape York Peninsula in Australia. Even then, the environment is so perfect that she may not lose any strength at all during the crossing. Look at the forecast track:



This latest forecast shows the crossing of the peninsula will only take about 12 hours. It forecasts no weakening during the crossing. They only take it up to 85 knots in the Gulf of Carpentaria, but I think this is going to be a major cyclone at least Cat 3 on the Simpson Scale. The forecast track seems to take it towards Nhulunbuy, a town on that tip of land on the other side of the gulf. It could parallel the coast for a little while, which would expose a large area to its full power. We will see how the situation progresses. Here are some links and images related to Monica.

Radar Loop

Independentwx (a great site for info on the tropics with lots of maps, images, and charts regarding all current tropical systems)

Cyclone Phasing Model Comparison for Monica

Dvorak Intensity Estimates







Updated: 4:53 AM GMT on April 19, 2006

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SST's a Big Problem this Hurricane Season

By: Levi32, 5:12 PM GMT on April 17, 2006

Even though the sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic are cooler then last year's, they will still be a big contributing factor during this year's hurricane season. Take a look at this SST Anomaly map. Link

Here you see that the western and northern Gulf of Mexico is warm, with cooler water in the SE gulf and NW Caribbean. There is a large area of cooler than normal waters southeast of Florida and around Cuba. Lately, however, this pool of cold has been moderating some, and it is not so big as it was a few months ago. Also there is less cooler water over much of the tropical Atlantic, and SST's there are near normal. The eastern Caribbean is slightly warmer than normal, though not near as warm as last year. Now look off the New England coast. There is a pool of very warm water just off Cape Cod, with generally warmer then normal water in that area. This is one of the concerns for a northeast US hurricane landfall this year. This warm pool is growing bigger, and could be a major factor this year. The entire Atlantic could still grow warmer then this map shows. Next look at the 30-day average SOI:



The SOI has been steadily been rising since late February, and shows no sign of stopping. The Southern Oscillation Index is now at +20 and is supporting the weak La Nina affect we are seeing in the SST Anomaly map. The La Nina signiture almost dissapeared completely, but a new batch of very cold water has just appeared off South America. If La Nina can hold for the rest of the summer, then that will just add to our problems for this hurricane season. Link to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology Regular SOI Commentary

Updated: 6:26 PM GMT on April 17, 2006

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Just One Month until Tropical Activity!

By: Levi32, 4:21 PM GMT on April 16, 2006

First of all, HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!!! HE IS RISEN!

I am convinced that we will see some significant tropical activity within a month from now. Mid-May will be when things really start to heat up. Right now the models are forecasting the sub-tropical jet to hold its ground for the next 2 weeks. It should start to move north or dissipate after that, and lower shear will move in for good. I also think that the first TD of the season will form in the Caribbean. Not just the western Caribbean, but the whole Caribbean, could host the first TD this season. Have a blessed Easter everyone! God bless you all!



AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Tropical Forecast Models for the Atlantic (including shear forecasts out to 6 days)

Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other maps.


Global Favorable Areas for Tropical Development Map and forecasts out to 120 hours.

Penn State Atlantic Tropical Page

Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products

CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products

CIMSS Atlantic Tropical Analysis

NASA Interactive Satellite



This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:



This is the vapor quantity in the air over the Atlantic:

Updated: 4:24 PM GMT on April 16, 2006

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Shear to Significantly Lessen Next 3 Days

By: Levi32, 2:55 PM GMT on April 15, 2006

All models are forecasting shear over the entire Atlantic to lessen significantly over the next 3 days. The subtropical jet will temperarily move north, allowing lighter shear to move north as well. The shear will most notibly lessen in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. After 3 days, the shear is forecast to come back stronger than ever, with little or no areas of low shear at all. Longer range forecasts indicate repeated fluxuations from high shear to low shear over the Caribbean. There are no indications of possible development at this time. We will see what happens over the next few weeks.



AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Tropical Forecast Models for the Atlantic (including shear forecasts out to 6 days)

Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other maps.


Global Favorable Areas for Tropical Development Map and forecasts out to 120 hours.

Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products

CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products

CIMSS Atlantic Tropical Analysis

NASA Interactive Satellite



This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:



This is the vapor quantity in the air over the Atlantic:

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Caribbean to Become Focus Area for Development

By: Levi32, 4:05 PM GMT on April 14, 2006

Hurricane season is on the doorstep, and from this day until the last storm fizzles out, this blog will be deticated to providing information on the tropical Atlantic, with periodic updates on Alaskan weather.

There is nothing out there today, but the models are all indicating a large area of low shear in the Caribbean in 3 days. After that, however, all the models bring high shear back over most of the tropical Atlantic. The southern third of the Caribbean will still have low shear, making it the focus area for development in coming weeks. The tendency to lower the shear in the gulf and Caribbean is consistent with the fact that most early storms in a season form in either of those two areas. We will see what happens.



AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Tropical Forecast Models for the Atlantic (including shear forecasts out to 6 days)

Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other maps.


Global Favorable Areas for Tropical Development Map and forecasts out to 120 hours.

Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products

CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products

CIMSS Atlantic Tropical Analysis

NASA Interactive Satellite



This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:



This is the vapor quantity in the air over the Atlantic:

Updated: 5:00 PM GMT on April 14, 2006

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Disturbance no Threat, but in a few weeks?

By: Levi32, 3:47 PM GMT on April 13, 2006

The disturbance over Cuba right now are not going to develop. The wind shear and dry air is just too strong to allow anything to become truly tropical. But in a month from now, we could be seeing some true development south of the tropical ridge. I still think that the jet stream will move north starting this week. We will see how fast it retreats allowing favorable conditions for tropical development.



AVN 72-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

GFS 144-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast


NOGAPS 120-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Canadian 144-hour Atlantic Shear Forecast

Tropical Formation Probability and lots of other maps.


Global Favorable Areas for Tropical Development Map and forecasts out to 120 hours.

Atlantic SST's, Heat Potential, and other products

CPC Atlantic Hurricane Products



This is SST's overlayed on Satellite for the Atlantic:



Updated: 4:03 PM GMT on April 13, 2006

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Alberto Will Form Very Soon.

By: Levi32, 3:58 PM GMT on April 12, 2006

Alberto is on the doorstep. No I am not referring to the disturbances in the Caribbean and the Bahamas at this time. Earlier I though that the shear would lessen enough for these disturbances to become depressions, but I have now backed off my case for development. Instead, I now believe that these systems have <5% chance to develop.

Since I know you all are preferring the GFS this year, than that is the model I will use. Here is the GFS Atlantic Shear Analysis.



Here you will notice the large purple area of 30+knot shear stretching from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to Africa. This is the subtropical jet stream. During the winter the jet dips south into the tropics. This causes a ton of shear. The area in which hurricanes usually develop is south of this jet. If you look at the map there is quite low shear south of this jet in the deep tropics near the equator. In the spring, the jet moves to the north allowing the tropical ridge to move north as well. Hurricanes generally form south of the ridge. Right now this favorable area is being confined to around the equator and southward.

The disturbances we are monitoring right now are north of the tropical ridge. They are experiencing incredible shear because the jet is over them. It doesn’t look like the shear will calm enough for development. Further more, there is a ton of dry air around the Caribbean and the Bahamas, and the lows are not even warm core. I do not think that there will be any development of any kind until the jet moves north for the summer and the normal atmospheric conditions for development are supplied.

This shift north of the jet, however, could be very soon, as soon as next week! Take a look at the GFS 144-hour shear map.



In this forecast map, the jet has moved north quite a bit. The southern half of the Caribbean is in less than 15-knot shear. The southern boundary of the jet has moved north of the Cape Verde Islands, the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles, and the southern half of the Caribbean all in just 6 days! To confirm this forecast, here is the NOGAPS Shear analysis and 144-hour forecast map. Here you will see the same thing, if not more pronounced in the NOGAPS. I think that this is the beginning of the shift north of the jet for the summer. If this is true, than in less than a month from now, if not sooner, we are going to have favorable conditions for tropical development, for real!

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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