Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.
By: Levi32, 8:15 PM GMT on March 31, 2006
I am no expert at all, and the only knowledge about the weather I have is from piles of books I have read, but I will make an attempt to predict where hurricanes are most likely to hit this year. Here is a link to a SST anomaly map.
Here you will notice that there is lots of cold water off the SE coast of the US. There is warm water in the gulf, off the coast of New England, and across the carribean and Atlantic. This may suggest that this year's hurricane season will have sigificant activity in the gulf, and the possibility of a hurricane in New England. Like I said I am no expert, but this hypothesis might be confirmed by the persistent ridge in the eastern US. This would direct hurricanes into the gulf and into the northeast US. All thoughts on this are welcome.
Updated: 9:44 PM GMT on March 31, 2006
By: Levi32, 5:00 PM GMT on March 30, 2006
Yesterday Glenda was all but ripped apart after an EWRC by the 20+ knot wind shear. But the shear weakended to 10 knots 6 hours prior to landfall. This allowed Glenda's eyewall to regenerate. Before landfall Glenda had a good strong eyewall that was open NE. She made landfall as a low-end cat 3, just like I predicted. She is now inland over western Australia as a cat 2. She will weaken to a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. After that the main threat will be heavy rains. Glenda will have some moisture to work with as she undergoes extratropical transision. She will parallel the coast a couple hundred miles inland, giving her access to the moisture from the sea. This could result in a vigourous extratropical cyclone moving south of Australia. Here is an IR floater satellite image.
Updated: 6:56 PM GMT on March 30, 2006
By: Levi32, 5:25 PM GMT on March 29, 2006
Yesterday Glenda bombed into a category 5 with winds of 160 MPH and a pressure of somewhere between 898-910 mb. Since then Glenda has weakened considerably, with only 125 MPH winds. I am holding to my prediction from yesterday that she will make landfall as a low-end cat 3. I have no way of knowing how the wind shear will affect Glenda as I have no link to wind shear forecasts for Australia. If any of you have a site please tell me. Right now Glenda is under almost 20 knots of shear. She is fighting it farely well, with not as much asymetrical appearance as yesterday. I noticed a very strong area of upper level divergence and low level convergence SW of Glenda. I am not sure how that will affect her. Here are links to radar, satellite, models, and maps.
Australia satellite derived analysis and other maps
Forecast Models for Glenda (tracks and forecast intensity)
Cyclone Phasing Analysis for Glenda
This is a SST map for Australia. I am sorry there is no legend but I can tell you that solid red is 86 degrees F (30 degrees C)
Updated: 11:41 PM GMT on March 29, 2006