Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra

Storm Situation Becoming Tense

By: Levi32, 10:25 PM GMT on February 01, 2006

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The situation for the big storm setup this weekend is getting more and more tense. The models donít know exactly what they are doing. The GFS, which has been extremely consistent on this for over a week now, lately has been pulling the second low to the east. It still pulls it into the parent low, but seems to be leaning toward the solution that some of the models are starting to show, that the triple point low moves east of us completely, and all we get is a stringed out front. This solution has been adopted by the NOGAPS and Japanese models. Also the GFS and NAM (ETA) are leaning in that direction. Now there is plenty of ballast to this. The faithful models that are not pulling the low east (Canadian, European, and UKMET) are now doing something very scary. As you know, the first low will come up into the Bering Sea. This low is already at its peak in the western Pacific. It will maintain that intensity if not strengthen again as it enters the Bering. Now, the second low is actually going to be all the way across the ocean from this low. This second low will come off Japan and race towards the first low. The speed of this second low and when it catches up with the first low is critical in the forecast. The faithful models now have the second low catching up with the first low before it even makes its move north. It becomes the triple point low in a hurry, and all this time from its journey from Japan until now, it has been deepening. The models have the pressure at this stage in the middle 950ís. The models now have the second low so strong and close to the first low that they combine into one big storm. This monster moves just west of Kodiak Island and sits in the Bering Sea. This will give us a prolonged period of southerly fetch. Once again the air will be cold enough for snow, which is ludicrous for this situation normally. So we will see which situation unfolds. I still think that the faithful models will hold out and win the contest, but we will see. I still hope that it doesnít knock out the power during Sundayís game, for the height of this storm will hit right during Sunday afternoon. Here are the model links please look at them.

Latest GFS and NAM (ETA)

Latest Canadian

Latest European

Here is IR and Visible Satellite:

Pacific IR
Pacific Visible

Updated: 5:51 PM GMT on February 02, 2006

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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