New little TC - Will it survive the SAL?

By: LeMoyne, 8:54 AM GMT on July 09, 2012

At about 0000Z on 0709, a new little TC formed at 5.75N 44.75W. It got fired up with deep convection (white on Dvorak) until 0700 when the deep convection minimized everywhere before dawn. The convection also dropped because the ITCZ is about to advance north again across at least 35W to 60W - from the mid-Atlantic west to the northern shore of SA. This advance will pull the western ITCZ off of SA back into the ocean but will very likely leave it patchy. The SAL...

Fireworks in the Atlantic on July 4th and 5th, 2012

By: LeMoyne, 2:03 PM GMT on July 05, 2012

From an apparent next-to-nothing setup on Midnight 7/3 (0000 UTC 7/4) three storm centers have developed in or near the Caribbean Sea in thirty hours. The tropical wave 97L has been working its way west through a SAL that it has weakened with a lungeE-retrenchW-organizeInPlace mode of action. The wave appeared to try to freeze or stop under the upper level high at 16N65W (?) in the NE corner of the Caribbean as the circulation repeatedly pushed LL storms under the...

Debby is a Honeybadger

By: LeMoyne, 12:43 AM GMT on June 27, 2012

TS Debby will not go away quickly. I can make a certain prediction of Debby's path: Debby will follow the end of the storm frontal system that stretches hundreds of miles to the ENE. Debby is a Honeybadger---eastern us wv 6/26 late pm utc http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/ir2-l.jpgThe dry high pressure coming from the north is at it's peak and yet Debby is wrapping complete spirals of cloudy low level circulation around herself. Debby is letting the remaining...

Lisa took a bullet... and dodged the NHC!

By: LeMoyne, 9:42 AM GMT on September 26, 2010

Anybody notice Lisa is 200nm and 90 degrees off track now after being hit by the jet stream at noon UTC on 9.25.10 !?!Lisa had a Jet Stream Shear and Guidance Event [JSGE] around midday UTC 0925. Lisa recoiled to a heading of ENE (1215-2215 UTC). Overnight, she has come around to NE and trending towards N while picking up strength and speed.No mention of any of this in the NHC 5PM and 11PM AST forecasts on 9.25 and still no mention in the NHC 5AM AST forecast on 9...

Updated: 10:05 AM GMT on September 26, 2010

Igor is the Monster

By: LeMoyne, 1:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

Notes from the night from 9/16 to 9/17The big news of the night is of course Karl's explosion into the third major in a row just as it hits near a low lying densely populated area of Mexico. Near a nuclear power plant no less. My prayers today are with the people in Karl's path - they will need assistance soon. Let me first admit I am a newbie and maybe even a bit of a wannabe 'doomcaster'. I have watched on the web, lurked here and only studied storms a little. ...

Updated: 1:33 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

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Debby EUS IR 062712 0515
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