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LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion |
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Last Updated: 9:50 PM GMT on June 29, 2009
— Last Comment: 4:07 PM GMT on July 07, 2009
The tropics in the Atlantic at least are relatively quiet still this week with no significant tropical systems or waves present at the moment. We are watching Tropical Storm Andres off the west coast of Mexico, which is bringing heavy rains and flooding from Acapulco to Manzanillo. This systems is currently forecast to move NW off the coast of Mexico and head out into cooler waters. The weather news for the Gulf and SE US this week is the heat that has anchored itself over the southeastern and south central states along the Gulf Coast. Let's talk about the tropics, and I'll cover the reason for the heat in the Gulf discussion.
In the Gulf of Mexico....... The weather in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the northern Gulf states and the southern plains is dominated by a large area of high pressure centered over Louisiana. The current pattern is one we call an Omega Block. It consists of the large high over LA with an associated ridge of high pressure extending from the western Caribbean north into the northern plains bounded by a deep trough of low pressure over the Pacific just of southern CA and a deep trough off the east coast of the Carolinas. The pattern essentially feeds on itself as the troughs deepen causing the ridge to amplify which causes the troughs to deepen... etc..etc.. etc. This produces a blocking pattern as the large scale flow over the US becomes more north and south and less west to east. This means that the pattern remains entrenched for extended periods of time until something happens to break the flow. That will usually be for one of the troughs to become so deep that the low associated with it cuts off, and the flow will then become west to east north of the low. That looks like it may be on the verge of happening with both the east coast and west coast troughs. Once the lows cut off, it's just a matter of waiting for the pressure systems to gradually lose energy or be caught up in the more west to east flow that results. The weather pattern we usually see with Omega Blocks is the one we currently see... hot and dry under the high and abundant rain along the troughs. For the Gulf coast states, this has meant record breaking high temps along the central and western Gulf coast and rain in FL and up the east coast. There is a small area of low pressure in northern Mexico embedded in the high pressure dome. This low is helping to produce some showers and thunderstorms from Brownsville southeast into the Bay of Campeche. No tropical development is expected here.  In the Caribbean Sea.... Most of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by a broad weak trough of low pressure that extends from a low pressure center over Nicaragua eastward to just south of Hispaniola. There is really no weather associated with this area of low pressure anywhere in the Caribbean. In the Atlantic Ocean.... A series of low pressure centers extend across the Atlantic just north of the tropical zones. Starting in the west is the trough I've already talked about anchored on a low near 32N 72W. This is the deepest and most active of the lows. Cyclonic circulation around this low is producing showers and thunderstorms around the periphery of the low from FL into the Bahamas and NE to near Bermuda. Another low exists near 25N 51W and yet another near 30N 26W with a deeper trough extending south to near 20N 35W. There is no real weather over the open Atlantic associated with these lows, but the mid and upper westerly flow around the south side of these lows/troughs is helping to drive a strong generally westerly flow in the tropical Atlantic pretty much all the way from the Caribbean to Africa.  That's about it. Hopefully we'll see a break in the pattern over the US and see some relief from the high heat in the central and southern US. See you next week!
Hi weather fans!!! There really isn't a lot to talk about in the tropics right now, but it's been a while since my last update, and I really need to get into the routine of giving you the rundown on the tropics for the Hurricane Season. A quick disclaimer for the folks new to my discussions... Much to the disappointment of some, I don't make forecasts. There are many people with a lot more information and education than I have who spend their days pouring over all t...
Hi folks! I know it's been a long time since I've blogged! It's time to get back into the flow of things for a variety of reasons.First, hurricane season ALMOST got an early start as the National Hurricane Center began watching invest 90L off the north coast of Cuba. While they never issued tasking for recon flights, they did put us on alert for possible flights. But 90L faded away, and we never had to fly it. Second, the 53rd WRS "Hurricane Hunters" made a bit of h...
It's that time of year! Every year in the Jan-Feb time frame the Hurricane Hunters head to the Pacific to fly winter storms between Alaska and Hawaii. We call it the Winter Storm Deployment. We alternate every year with NOAA between Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage, AK and Hickam AFB in Honolulu, Hawaii. On the even years we are in Hawaii and on the odd years we are in Alaska. Well this being an odd year, we're in Alaska. Weather in the Anchorage area has been snowy all t...
I know.. a couple of weeks late! The 2009 Tropical Season is expected to be a fairly active one. We'll see! In the meantime, it's winter and it's moving in with a vengeance here in the deep south. The coldest air of the year is expected over the next 24-48 hours as one arctic airmass after another pushes southeast in the SE US. Hard freeze warnings are up all along the northern Gulf Coast. So make sure you protect pets and plants for the next few nights as temps are...
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