LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion for Saturday, May 26, 2012

Posted by: LRandyB, 6:11 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

Well, after the off season break, I am back and the 2012 Hurricane Season, which hasn't even started officially, is off to a big start with our second system of the year in the Atlantic. It's been nearly 100 years since we had two tropical systems in the Atlantic before the official start of the season. That doesn't necessarily portend a busy season. If you look at the 1908 season (the last time this happened), it was a fairly slack season with few landfalling storms. The official forecast from CSU and NHC calls for a nearly normal or slightly below normal season. As usual, we won't really know for sure until sometime in November or December!

Let's take a look at the tropics!!!

In the Gulf of Mexico ......

The Gulf of Mexico is quiet today dominated by a large broad area of high pressure over the eastern US that is driving very dry air all the way to the southern Gulf and the Yucatan.

In the Caribbean .....

In the Caribbean, a weak disturbance along the ITCZ in the southern Caribbean is producing thunderstorms just north of Panama. Otherwise, the Caribbean is enjoying mostly clear conditions.

In the Atlantic ....

The big news in the Atlantic is Subtropical Storm Beryl off the coast of South Carolina. This system has persisted for a couple of days and NHC upgraded it yesterday. The Hurricane Hunters are investigating the area today to see what kind of core structure they find. A subtropical system is cold core with a broad wind field. This system is no exception with an upper level cold low supporting it and most of its convection well removed from the center of circulation. This system isn't in a great position to evolve into a tropical storm but it does have some potential. Right now,water vapor loops show dry air being entrained into the system circulation and the system is over fairly cool waters. However, the forecast has Beryl moving SW over the Gulf Stream over the next 24 hours which could allow for a transition to tropical. But that will be fairly short lived as it will then move back over cooler waters and then make landfall. So while it might be able to develop a warm core, it is not likely to become a hurricane. Folks in GA and SC need to watch this system but in reality, they could use the rain there. This system doesn't look like it'll be a big rain producer but anything helps!!!

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the only thing of interest is an area of convection along 5-10N and 30-40W but this is disorganized convection and has a subtropical jet stream to the west of it so we're not expecting this to develop into anything.

I'll start updating every weekend, more often when systems develop!

Have a great day!

Randy

Categories:Tropical

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The End of the 2011 Hurricane Season and a Career, Monday, December 5th, 2011

Posted by: LRandyB, 4:47 PM GMT on December 05, 2011

We have come to the end of yet another hurricane season and, as predicted, it was a busy one, at least in terms of the number of storms we had. There were an unusually low number of landfalls but we won't complain about that. You can read Dr. Master's blog for the the stats for the 2011 season. It was my 15th season with the Hurricane Hunters and my last. I am retiring from the AF Reserves as of December 31st and I flew my last flight on Fri...

My Fini Flight

Updated: 5:06 PM GMT on December 05, 2011

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Tropical Weather Discussion for Thursday, September 1, 2011

Posted by: LRandyB, 6:24 PM GMT on September 01, 2011

Hi folks! Well, after two weeks in the Caribbean flying Irene, I am back at Keesler AFB in Biloxi and the season is starting to roll along. We have Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic, a disturbance in the North Atlantic, and a disturbance in the Gulf. And while no one is talking about it yet, there is a fairly vigorous wave just off Africa a little south of the point where Katia got going. In the Gulf of Mexico ......The big news here is Invest 93L over the central Gul...

TS Lee

Updated: 8:57 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Tropical Weather Discussion - Friday, August 26, 2011

Posted by: LRandyB, 9:33 PM GMT on August 21, 2011

I'm back from St. Croix after two weeks there and a week and half of flying Irene. The Hurricane Hunters haver pulled their crews out of St. Croix, brought them home to Biloxi, pulled in some fresh crews, and are deploying to Savannah, GA to continue flying Irene for the next day or so until she makes landfall in New England. I'll focus solely on Irene for this discussion.The 5pm advisory for Irene put the storm at 265 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC moving N at 14 m...

Updated: 9:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2011

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Tropical Weather Discussion - Thursday, August 11, 2011

Posted by: LRandyB, 5:10 PM GMT on August 11, 2011

Hi folks!!! After a busy couple of months, I'm going to try to get back in the blog here. I'm married now and settling down with my new wife, Ronda. I start my two week Air Force Reserve Annual Tour this Saturday and it looks like we'll head straight to St. Croix to start flying Atlantic systems. Of course, I'll have my camera with me!Yesterday's POD (Plan of the Day) from NHC had a possible invest for Saturday. Today's POD pushed that off to Sunday. So we'll see wh...

Updated: 6:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2011

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