Tropical Weather Discussion - Sunday, August 26, 2012

By: Randy Bynon , 5:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

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All eyes are on Isaac this afternoon as it makes its way through the Florida Keys as a tropical storm. Current Key West radar shows the storm circulation very well though it still appears a bit ragged in terms of deep convection and eyewall development. But Isaac is now entering the Gulf which is quite warm. A ridge is building in over the SE US. Water vapor and visible loops show the ridge is beginning to effectively stall out the trough over the southern plains that might have a chance to pull Isaac north. As a result, the models have shifted west as has the NHC forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see the track shift a bit further west before landfall sometime Tuesday night.

At this point, the models are merging on the track forecast through 72 hours. There is some divergence in the models at the 72 hour point but that divergence is based on the differences in the way the models handle the trough. The intensity forecast is fairly straight forward. Water temps in the Gulf are more than warm enough to support development and wind shear is forecast to be fairly low for the entire track across the Gulf. The biggest issue that Isaac might have in intensifying is the lack of core organization at this point and the extent to which the storm is spread out. Interaction with the Keys and the SE FL peninsula will slow down immediate intensification. Systems spread out as broad as Isaac typically have a tough time getting organized quickly. The short distance (relatively) between Isaac's current position and i's forecast landfall position doesn't give the storm a lot of time to consolidate and build before it makes landfall. If Isaac follows the forecast path through my backyard, I don't think it'll have the chance to be much more than a cat 2 hurricane. If the track shifts much further west, that'll give the system a bit more time over warm water and it might be able to reach a weak cat 3.

Having said that, even a cat 2 is a storm to be reckoned with. Please take seriously all watches and warnings posted for your area.

I'll post again tonight after the 11pm EDT advisory.




Have a great day!

Randy

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9. HurryCane
2:51 PM GMT on August 28, 2012
Thanks so much, Randy! Hope to see you soon.

Barbara Allen
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 27 Comments: 30
8. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
4:44 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting HurryCane:
Hi Randy, its Barbara Allen. I have missed seeing you at the camera club mtgs.
Sooo, its Monday morning and I was wondering what your current opinion is on whether I need to prepare for flooding in my home.
My house got 5 feet of water in Katrina which of course packed a 28 ft surge.. I heard they expected 5 - 7 feet above average. Do i need to move my more important furniture out of here?
Do you think the European model will shift further west also?


Hi Barbara!

Good to hear from you. I was getting to the meetings off and on for a while but it has been a while.

I don't think you have anything to worry about as far as surge goes. This may have a bit more than 5-7 feet in our area just because of the path of the storm. It is very similar to Katrina's path which allows the winds to drive the water into the area between the MS coast and the southern tip of LA with no place to go. But this storm is certainly no Katrina and there is no indication that'll it'll get above a cat 1... it's struggling to even get to that.

I do think the odds of this storm being pushed further west than the current track are pretty good. The high pressure ridge over the SE US is building and it may help push the storm a little more west.

Randy
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
7. HurryCane
1:41 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Hi Randy, its Barbara Allen. I have missed seeing you at the camera club mtgs.
Sooo, its Monday morning and I was wondering what your current opinion is on whether I need to prepare for flooding in my home.
My house got 5 feet of water in Katrina which of course packed a 28 ft surge.. I heard they expected 5 - 7 feet above average. Do i need to move my more important furniture out of here?
Do you think the European model will shift further west also?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 27 Comments: 30
6. redagainPatti
1:43 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
I was just thinking the radar was looking like the storm is building up and making a nice circle of power moving into the Gulf. I hope NO is watching this mess.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 123 Comments: 1520
5. cyclonebuster
7:40 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Correction now Randy 4 Millibars.......
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20468
4. cyclonebuster
7:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
LOL! Randy in 1 hour it has dropped 3 millibars and they say it is slow intensification...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20468
3. palmettobug53
7:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Hey, Randy.

Been watching for the last couple of days or so. From what I hear, most of the WU folks are prepared and as ready as they can be.

Worried about the ones along the Gulf Coast, though.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 239 Comments: 25384
2. cyclonebuster
7:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Great blog Randy.... So I ask bnorcross about my Tunnel idea about what he thinks of it and the dude bans me. What you think about that??
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20468
1. DougKahn
5:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
Storm surge in Englewood, Florida concerns me right now. Can anyone figure how far the storm's center will be from Englewood, at the closest point?
Member Since: July 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20

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I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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