I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.
By: Randy Bynon , 3:28 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Things are heating up a bit! We have recently upgraded Hurricane Ernesto about to make landfall near Belize and a new invest in the eastern Atlantic.
Let's take a look.....
In the Gulf of Mexico ......
The weather is generally good across most of the Gulf as upper level ridging extends from the outflow of Hurricane Ernesto. Showers and thunderstorms along the FL peninsula were popping up with daytime heating aided by an upper trough over the eastern US. Hurricane Ernesto is expected to cross the Yucatan and emerge into the southern Gulf, where it will most likely gain some of its energy back before making a final landfall in Mexico.
In the Caribbean .....
Most of the Caribbean is dominated by an upper level ridge of high pressure extending from near Panama. This is producing generally fair skies over the region. A tropical wave is producing some showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean and we can expect to see that spread into the central Caribbean.
The big news here, of course, is Hurricane Ernesto approaching the coast of Belize. NHC just upgraded this system this evening. The forecast for Ernesto is pretty straight forward. We can expect some weakening of the system as it crosses the Yucatan tonight and tomorrow. Once Ernesto enters the southern Gulf tomorrow night, some restrengthening is expected to occur. Whether or not Ernesto regains hurricane status will depend to a great extent on how much energy it loses over the land crossing. Even if it does regain hurricane status, it will be a minimal hurricane at landfall in Mexico.
In the Atlantic ....
Our biggest area of interest right now in the Atlantic is invest 92L approaching 35W near 12N. On their latest TWO, NHC gives invest 92L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Given the warm SSTs and relatively low shear ahead of this system, it seems very likely to be our next tropical system. I would expect NHC to begin tasking the Hurricane Hunters on this system this weekend.
Have a great day!
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