Tropical Weather Discussion for Sunday, June 3, 2012

By: Randy Bynon , 9:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began June 1st. We've already had two named systems, including the most intense ever recorded in pre-season activity. We haven't seen pre-season activity like this since 1908.

But the tropics have quieted a bit for the moment. Let's take a look.....

In the Gulf of Mexico ......



Weather in the Gulf of Mexico is fairly quiet today. In the low levels, high pressure over the SE US is producing the typical east to southeast trade winds we'd expect to see. The fact that that area of high pressure has shifted east into GA has helped to bring the normal southerly flow off the Gulf and helped to cool down the record high temps we were seeing last week along the SE coastal states when the high was in the mid-west giving a northerly flow.

In the mid and upper levels, high pressure over the western Caribbean is producing a westerly flow aloft over most of the Gulf. The upper level westerly flow over the low level east-southeast flow is producing very high wind shear in the range of 60 knots over most of the Gulf. Upper level difluence in the flow around the upper level high is producing a lot of high cloud cover over the Gulf but nothing in the way of real weather. There are some showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan kicked off mainly by heating but aided by the upper level difluence.

In the Caribbean .....



Most of the Caribbean is experiencing very nice weather today with little cloud cover. There is a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak tropical wave interacting with land moving ashore in Central America and this activity is aided by the difluence associated with an upper level high over Central America.

In the Atlantic ....



Most of the central and eastern Atlantic is under clear to partly cloudy skies with little in the way of weather. Visible satellite loops show a couple of mid-Atlantic tropical waves around 10N between 40W and 50W, but water vapor loops show little mid-level moisture or convection with these waves. Upper level shear is strong over most of the central Atlantic just east of the Lesser Antilles.

Over the western Atlantic a cold front is moving east and extends down into the central Bahamas. This front trails off into a stationary trough over the Florida Straights and western Cuba producing some showers and thunderstorms there.

The forecast models at the moment do not suggest any development for the next few days, but I'll update if anything looks like it has potential!

Have a great day!

Randy

Venus Transition (LRandyB)
Not the best shot but not bad without a telescope. This was taken with a Canon 60D and a 70-200mm f/2.8L lens at 200mm.
Venus Transition

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8. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
1:27 AM GMT on June 23, 2012
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Hi Randy, great documentary on TWC on hurricane hunters! U DA MEN... :)


Thanks! Believe it or not, I haven't seen the series yet but I have heard great things about it. I managed to stay out of the cameras way for this one for a change! LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
7. LakeWorthFinn
4:28 AM GMT on June 21, 2012
Hi Randy, great documentary on TWC on hurricane hunters! U DA MEN... :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7314
6. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
11:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2012
I posted a shot I took this afternoon of the Venus solar transition. The image isn't great due to a high thin layer of cirrus but it's not bad right off the camera. You can just make out a couple of sun spots along the center of the image as well.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
5. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
11:49 PM GMT on June 05, 2012
Thanks bug!!! No, in fact I will still fly when the good storms come up. I'll be flying as a media member for this blog!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
4. palmettobug53
4:18 PM GMT on June 05, 2012
Hey, Randy!

Glad to see you're still blogging and sharing your tropical knowledge with us here on WU. I was afraid you'd drop off, now that you're retired.

Gonna miss your bird's eye view of the storms, though.

Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 233 Comments: 25079
3. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
5:38 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Thanks for the kind comments!!
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
2. rod2635
9:16 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
A great clearly explained concise summary of what's going on. Thanks, look forward to more during the season.
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
1. OGal
10:52 PM GMT on June 03, 2012




Thanks Randy you are our go to guy when the weather gets ugly. Hope you are having a wonderful weekend. We just back from Alaska after catching our limit on halibut.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222

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About LRandyB

I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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