I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.
By: Randy Bynon , 9:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2012
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began June 1st. We've already had two named systems, including the most intense ever recorded in pre-season activity. We haven't seen pre-season activity like this since 1908.
But the tropics have quieted a bit for the moment. Let's take a look.....
In the Gulf of Mexico ......
Weather in the Gulf of Mexico is fairly quiet today. In the low levels, high pressure over the SE US is producing the typical east to southeast trade winds we'd expect to see. The fact that that area of high pressure has shifted east into GA has helped to bring the normal southerly flow off the Gulf and helped to cool down the record high temps we were seeing last week along the SE coastal states when the high was in the mid-west giving a northerly flow.
In the mid and upper levels, high pressure over the western Caribbean is producing a westerly flow aloft over most of the Gulf. The upper level westerly flow over the low level east-southeast flow is producing very high wind shear in the range of 60 knots over most of the Gulf. Upper level difluence in the flow around the upper level high is producing a lot of high cloud cover over the Gulf but nothing in the way of real weather. There are some showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan kicked off mainly by heating but aided by the upper level difluence.
In the Caribbean .....
Most of the Caribbean is experiencing very nice weather today with little cloud cover. There is a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak tropical wave interacting with land moving ashore in Central America and this activity is aided by the difluence associated with an upper level high over Central America.
In the Atlantic ....
Most of the central and eastern Atlantic is under clear to partly cloudy skies with little in the way of weather. Visible satellite loops show a couple of mid-Atlantic tropical waves around 10N between 40W and 50W, but water vapor loops show little mid-level moisture or convection with these waves. Upper level shear is strong over most of the central Atlantic just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Over the western Atlantic a cold front is moving east and extends down into the central Bahamas. This front trails off into a stationary trough over the Florida Straights and western Cuba producing some showers and thunderstorms there.
The forecast models at the moment do not suggest any development for the next few days, but I'll update if anything looks like it has potential!
Have a great day!
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