Tropical Weather Discussion for Saturday, May 26, 2012

By: Randy Bynon , 6:11 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

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Well, after the off season break, I am back and the 2012 Hurricane Season, which hasn't even started officially, is off to a big start with our second system of the year in the Atlantic. It's been over 100 years since we had two tropical systems in the Atlantic before the official start of the season. That doesn't necessarily portend a busy season. If you look at the 1908 season (the last time this happened), it was a fairly slack season with few landfalling storms. The official forecast from CSU and NHC calls for a nearly normal or slightly below normal season. As usual, we won't really know for sure until sometime in November or December!

Let's take a look at the tropics!!!

In the Gulf of Mexico ......

The Gulf of Mexico is quiet today dominated by a large broad area of high pressure over the eastern US that is driving very dry air all the way to the southern Gulf and the Yucatan.

In the Caribbean .....

In the Caribbean, a weak disturbance along the ITCZ in the southern Caribbean is producing thunderstorms just north of Panama. Otherwise, the Caribbean is enjoying mostly clear conditions.

In the Atlantic ....

The big news in the Atlantic is Subtropical Storm Beryl off the coast of South Carolina. This system has persisted for a couple of days and NHC upgraded it yesterday. The Hurricane Hunters are investigating the area today to see what kind of core structure they find. A subtropical system is cold core with a broad wind field. This system is no exception with an upper level cold low supporting it and most of its convection well removed from the center of circulation. This system isn't in a great position to evolve into a tropical storm but it does have some potential. Right now,water vapor loops show dry air being entrained into the system circulation and the system is over fairly cool waters. However, the forecast has Beryl moving SW over the Gulf Stream over the next 24 hours which could allow for a transition to tropical. But that will be fairly short lived as it will then move back over cooler waters and then make landfall. So while it might be able to develop a warm core, it is not likely to become a hurricane. Folks in GA and SC need to watch this system but in reality, they could use the rain there. This system doesn't look like it'll be a big rain producer but anything helps!!!

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the only thing of interest is an area of convection along 5-10N and 30-40W but this is disorganized convection and has a subtropical jet stream to the west of it so we're not expecting this to develop into anything.

I'll start updating every weekend, more often when systems develop!

Have a great day!


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12:12 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Thank you for the update. I'm looking forward to your forecasts this season.

Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
2. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
10:42 PM GMT on May 27, 2012
Recent recon flights still show no warming in the core of this system but the convection has started spinning in closer to the center. Jacksonville, FL radar shows a fairly impressive presentation of Beryl.

Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
1. mermaidlaw
6:53 PM GMT on May 26, 2012
Thanks for the info Randy. It is great to see you again!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8814

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About LRandyB

I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.