Tropical Weather Discussion - Thursday, August 11, 2011
After a busy couple of months, I'm going to try to get back in the blog here. I'm married now and settling down with my new wife, Ronda. I start my two week Air Force Reserve Annual Tour this Saturday and it looks like we'll head straight to St. Croix to start flying Atlantic systems. Of course, I'll have my camera with me!
Yesterday's POD (Plan of the Day) from NHC had a possible invest for Saturday. Today's POD pushed that off to Sunday. So we'll see what 92L looks like tomorrow.
Let's get to the discussion!
In the Gulf of Mexico ......
For the most part, the Gulf of Mexico is clear and very dry on water vapor loops. A large, broad area of high pressure is centered just about the middle of the Gulf providing hot, dry air over the region.
In the Western Atlantic and Caribbean .....
In the Caribbean, several upper level features are evident on water vapor loops. An upper level low is seen over the Yucatan Peninsula drifting slowly west. A weak high pressure area exists east of the Yucatan over the western Caribbean. A weak upper trough can be seen extending from the Atlantic across Hispaniola into the central Caribbean. A weak low level tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean but isn't really producing much in the way of weather.
In the west Atlantic, low level convergence associated with a weak frontal boundary is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms along the east coast of the US all the way down into the northern Bahamas. On water vapor, a mid-upper level high pressure circulation can be seen centered near 25N 60W. This circulation is dominating most of the western open Atlantic. A large area of very dry air exists along the south and southeast periphery of this high pressure circulation.
In the Central and Eastern Atlantic .........
That area of dry air I talked about in the Atlantic is making for mostly clear skies over the open water from the Windward Islands all the way to about 40W. Then we come to the news of the day which is Invests 92L and 93L.
There is some evidence of some low level circulation with 92L near 16N 36W but the system overall is poorly organized. There has been some sporadic weak convection with the system over the last 24 hours but that has declined somewhat this morning. NHC gives 92L a 30% chance of developing by Saturday but the dry air ahead of the wave and minimally warm ocean temps combined with some moderate shear will make it a tough environment to develop in. We'll have to keep an eye on this one.
93L lies just east of 92L near 10N 23W. It looks more impressive than 92L does but systems right off the African coast always look great initially until they have been over water for a day or so. In any case, there is more moisture available for this system and water temps, as with 92L, are minimally adequate for development. Outflow over the system looks pretty impressive and symmetrical as well and there is some decent convection with this system. We'll have to watch this system as it sits oer water for another day or two. Interaction with 92L could impeded development as well.
I may be headed to St. Croix to fly starting this weekend. I'll keep everyone posted.
Have a great day!