Tropical Weather Discussion for Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

By: Randy Bynon , 12:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2008

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Good morning! It's been a numbers of days since my last update as the season has been quiet for the last couple of weeks. And at the moment, it looks like it should stay pretty quiet. The pattern over the tropics looks more like a winter mid-latitude pattern. There is one area of disturbed weather but it doesn't look like it'll develop. Let's take a look.

In the Gulf.......

A deep trough of low pressure over the eastern US is pushing some of the coldest air of the season into the Deep South this morning with temps this morning in the 30s to low 40s across most of the Gulf Coast. Even the latest IR image shows the low level cold air stratocumulus clouds streaming off the land as the northerly flow pushes cold air out over the warm water.



The Gulf is under a strong upper level westerly flow in the base of the trough which would hinder most development.

In the Caribbean....

Very nice weather persists through much of the Caribbean as a strong, dry area of high pressure dominates this region. There isn't even much in the way of convection developing over the islands.



In the Atlantic....

A strong low pressure center off the coast of Nova Scotia extends a deep trough southward into the western tropical Atlantic just east of the Windward Islands. An induced ridge between this trough and the one over the eastern US can be seen on IR extending northward over Bermuda. A weak tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic is moving westward and is headed for this trough. A very strong southern flow ahead of the trough will prevent any development of this disturbance.



That's about it. It seems as though fall is settling in solidly over most of the US and many areas of the north have already seen their first snowfall. But officially, hurricane season doesn't end for another month! And I have flown November and December hurricanes!

Keep warm!!!

Randy

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11. CaicosRetiredSailor
9:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2008
hmmmm.....
perhaps time for an update...

the caption above:
"Very nice weather persists through much of the Caribbean as a strong, dry area of high pressure dominates this region. There isn't even much in the way of convection developing over the islands."

just doesn't quite fit the Sat image of TD 17
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
10. Spetrm
9:36 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Ya, I wasent thinking tropical from it, some sort of hybrid? But A well its dieing so who cares....
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 9859
9. JPCSTORM
4:09 PM GMT on November 04, 2008
Hello Randy,

The wife and head to Cairo Tomorrow! I hope 93l doesn't affect SFL while were gone.

Looking forward to cruising the Nile and the museums in Cairo [and also the Camel ride].

Stay safe if your crew gets the call on 93l. Seems Jeff thinks this could be a storm by the end of the week.

JPC
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
8. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
12:29 AM GMT on November 04, 2008
Quoting Spetrm:
Randy what you think is going on with this blob off of florida?


It won't be anything we'll have to worry about. If you look at water vapor loops, there is a pretty strong jet stream overrunning a frontal boundary in that area helping to produce the convection. If the front washed out and anything were to develop, the current flow pattern would drive it out to sea.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
7. Spetrm
6:36 PM GMT on November 03, 2008
Randy what you think is going on with this blob off of florida?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 9859
6. seflagamma
12:45 AM GMT on November 01, 2008
Happy Halloween,

Hope you gets more treats than tricks tonight!


Have fun!
Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 306 Comments: 41059
5. Raysfan70
12:16 PM GMT on October 31, 2008
Good Morning {{Randy and Family}}!
Trick or Treat?
Have a Fantastic Friday!
HaPpY HaLlOwEeN!
MyHotComments.com
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
4. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
12:32 PM GMT on October 29, 2008
Do something about it? It's almost November Rays! The cold is here for a while. :-)

I like cool weather. Not cold.. just cool! Going diving today over in the FL Panhandle.. should be interesting. Current temp there is 33... looking for a high of 62. All my diving has been tropical. I'm going to freeze my buns off. But.. I'll take pictures! LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
3. Raysfan70
11:35 AM GMT on October 29, 2008


Good Morning {{Randy}}!
Thanks for the update.
Now do something with this cold weather,yes it's even cold for me. :-)
Stay Warm.
Have a Wunderful Wednesday! ;-)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
2. wxgeek723
10:38 PM GMT on October 28, 2008
Nice update. I would say the season has one more, weak tropical storm to go.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 4008
1. lawntonlookers
12:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2008
Thanks Randy.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

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I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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