I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.
By: Randy Bynon , 12:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2008
Good morning! It's been a numbers of days since my last update as the season has been quiet for the last couple of weeks. And at the moment, it looks like it should stay pretty quiet. The pattern over the tropics looks more like a winter mid-latitude pattern. There is one area of disturbed weather but it doesn't look like it'll develop. Let's take a look.
In the Gulf.......
A deep trough of low pressure over the eastern US is pushing some of the coldest air of the season into the Deep South this morning with temps this morning in the 30s to low 40s across most of the Gulf Coast. Even the latest IR image shows the low level cold air stratocumulus clouds streaming off the land as the northerly flow pushes cold air out over the warm water.
The Gulf is under a strong upper level westerly flow in the base of the trough which would hinder most development.
In the Caribbean....
Very nice weather persists through much of the Caribbean as a strong, dry area of high pressure dominates this region. There isn't even much in the way of convection developing over the islands.
In the Atlantic....
A strong low pressure center off the coast of Nova Scotia extends a deep trough southward into the western tropical Atlantic just east of the Windward Islands. An induced ridge between this trough and the one over the eastern US can be seen on IR extending northward over Bermuda. A weak tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic is moving westward and is headed for this trough. A very strong southern flow ahead of the trough will prevent any development of this disturbance.
That's about it. It seems as though fall is settling in solidly over most of the US and many areas of the north have already seen their first snowfall. But officially, hurricane season doesn't end for another month! And I have flown November and December hurricanes!
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