I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.
By: Randy Bynon , 1:08 PM GMT on January 22, 2008
Good morning! It's been rather cool over most of the Gulf Coast for the last week or so. But of course, this is January and you might expect that this time of year! But we've also had a fair amount of rain and some wintery precip inland over the last week.
A rather unsettled weather pattern is expected over the next few days at least for the northern and western Gulf Coast regions. An overall broad upper level trough persists across the central and eastern US with a number of shortwave troughs propogating through the flow. A strong area of high pressure at the surface is in the Central Plains states poised to push south into the Gulf. Ahead of it, a weak cold front lies across the Tennessee River and Central Mississippi River Valley areas pushing slowly south and southeast. As the front approaches the coast though it will leave most of it's energy at the jet stream level behind it as the localized flow in the south central US becomes somewhat zonal. So the front will push into the Gulf and become stationary as it begins to wash out a bit. Still, it will be close enough to the coast from TX to the FL pnahandle to keep a 30 to 50 percent chance of precip in the local forecasts through Thursday before the high pushes far enough south to push the front away from the coast.
The high will continue to push east into the SE US and into the Atlantic by the weekend allowing for a return flow out of the south and a warmup across most of the Gulf coast. But with the warm air and return southerly flow will come increased moisture and clouds with an increase in the rain chances. This also allows for the next system to begin pushing into the area early next week!
Have a great week!
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