What a difference a couple of weeks makes!

By: Kumo , 5:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2013

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Two invests in the Atlantic on the verge of getting renamed... and we don't currently have the MJO in our neck of the woods.

For the people that have been whining about a busted hurricane season, the next couple of weeks and on through early to mid-October will be a good lesson for them.

My best guess, I am still going with 3 named storms during the latter part of August. 3-2-1. The major storm (weak Category 3) will be a CV storm and pull a re-curve back out to sea. We will have a land falling storm somewhere in the Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM region, probably a weak to moderate Category 1.

Edit: For the 3rd system, a CV Tropical Storm that takes us into September.

My current thinking is that September will be very active, 6 to 7 named systems forming during the month with at least one of those becoming a major. October will have 2 to 3 named storms.

I don't think Texas is going to get a system this year, maybe a weak wave or two. Perhaps we'll get lucky and get some good rain from the 2nd peak in severe weather this September and October.

These are just my best guesses compared to what I have seen in the past from our hurricane seasons. I've been watching these storms since 1988 when Hurricane Gilbert threatened the Gulf, but I am still fairly new to the science behind them.

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12:34 AM GMT on August 22, 2013
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About Kumo

Former US ARMY Medic. Been using WU as my main online source of local weather info since 2005. Loves coffee, especially multi-region dark roasts.

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