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KoritheMan's WunderBlog |
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Last Updated: 8:39 PM GMT on March 30, 2009
— Last Comment: 8:16 AM GMT on July 09, 2009
NOTE: My blogs are made merely because I love studying the weather, not because of anything else. Do not use the information in here for life or death situations. Always listen to your local NWS, the NHC, or NOAA for the latest weather information.
Tropical Storm Arthur formed early this afternoon from Invest 90L. It became a tropical storm just as it was moving onshore the coast of Belize. Arthur hasn't weakened since the first special advisory early this afternoon, and infrared satellite loops still show a fairly well-organized system, even though it is over land. Arthur is beginning to deteriorate though, as convection has weakened with the last few frames. Arthur may be downgraded to a tropical depression on the next advisory from the NHC if no reasonable amount of deep convection persists. Arthur is only a minimal tropical storm, and it will not take much for it to weaken. Arthur will have a brief opportunity for some slight re-intensification once it emerges into the Bay of Campeche early Monday morning. In the meantime, Arthur should continue to move west to west-northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula, and should emerge into the Bay of Campeche early Monday morning. As I said, once it does that, it will have a brief opportunity for some slight re-intensification. Just how much re-intensification takes place will be determined by how disrupted Arthur's circulation is from the passage over land. Considering even major hurricanes have been significantly weakened by the Yucatan Peninsula (i.e. Hurricane Dean, just to name one), it will be no surprise to see Arthur's circulation severely disrupted from the passage over land. NHC has this regaining tropical storm status as it nears landfall in eastern Mexico. Re-intensification into a tropical storm seems quite likely, but I only expect re-intensification to a 45 mph tropical storm at present, simply because Arthur's circulation will likely be too disrupted by its passage over land. It typically takes 12 hours or longer for a tropical cyclone to regain its strong circulation it once had after spending time over land, and some never recover from land at all. There is also a significant amount of dry air around, as per water vapor loops. This is due to the strong ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that's steering Arthur in a west to west-northwest direction. Since the high is not forecast to weaken significantly during the next few days, the dry air will remain in place due to subsidence. If Arthur entrains some of this after emerging into the Bay of Campeche, it may have trouble re-organizing significantly. In a few days, Arthur will make landfall along eastern Mexico, and then quickly dissipate and we can finally say goodbye to Alma/Arthur and move onto the next system. Arthur has no chance of going north at all, because the Gulf of Mexico high pressure isn't going to weaken anytime soon. Arthur's impact will be the potential for flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous areas of Mexico over the coming days. None of the computer models forecast Arthur to go north, and maintain the high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days or so.
First of all, let me clear something up. Since I plan to have much more frequent tropical blogs this year, as opposed to my 1 or 2 a month last year, I will not do as I originally planned and make a new blog everytime I update. Instead, I'll just update the same blog over and over until there is something new to talk about. For example, the blog about Invest 90E (this one) will be updated day after day with new information until it becomes a tropical depression (if ...
I figured I'd do another blog. Been a few weeks since my last one. This blog will focus on how active the East Pacific might be this year.First of all, I'll list the things I'll be using to make this forecast:1. SSTs2. ENSO3. Analog yearsWith that said, let's give a detailed description if each one. After all of the aforementioned categories have been explained, I'll close the blog with my forecast for the East Pacific.SSTs:SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the Eas...
Decided to make a new blog, since it's been over a month since I made my last one. This blog in particular is something a little different than what I usually do on here. This one will list all of the terms (that I know of; any comments that will let me know about any additional terms that I might've missed are welcome) that you will see frequently used here on wunderground (both on the main blog, as well as other blogs) throughout the Atlantic hurricane season. Thi...
Well, it looks like we're going to start off March with a bang, as a significant severe weather outbreak is possible on Monday, March 3, 2008. Given the magnitude of the severe weather outbreaks thus far this year, it would not surprise me to see a significant severe weather outbreak, similar to what occured on February 5 and 6 this year, on Monday.Synopsis: A vigorous upper-level trough, now approaching Washington and Oregon, should dive southeastward over the next...
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