Tropical weather analysis - May 4, 2014 - May the Fourth Be With You

By: KoritheMan , 3:54 AM GMT on May 05, 2014

Share this Blog
8
+

Although we are still technically 11 days from the official start of the eastern north Pacific hurricane season of 2014, already there are signs of an area of disturbed weather. This disturbance has been tracked by the global model fields rather well over the last few days, and those models suggest the potential for the formation of at least a broad low pressure area. The CMC and GFS are the most aggressive, calling for the system to become a mid-range tropical storm.

Satellite images show a widespread area of cloudiness and thunderstorms stretching from roughly 115W to 95W and south of 15N to approximately 5N. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) analyzes a 1010 mb surface low within the western portion of the disturbance near 9N 111W. CIMSS vorticity and satellite data suggest that this disturbance is large and disorganized, with the 1010 mb low attempting to compete with another area of rotation to the east, near 9N 105W. While the actual surface low is officially analyzed at the more westward location for now, I am led to believe the eastern area will become the dominant feature; satellite images show a distinct area of convection in this general area, perhaps a primitive convective band, with last light low cloud lines -- complimented by the transition to nighttime shortwave infrared imagery -- also suggesting a stronger cyclonic signature within this area. Water vapor animations show cirrus emanating westward and northwestward away from the more eastern area while outflow in connection with the western area looks more restricted by the upper-level cyclonic circulation to the northwest.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of the disturbance. It hasn't been designated an invest yet, so unfortunately there is no floater. The disturbance is in the lower right corner of the image. The actual 1010 mb low analyzed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 0z is actually in the lower left portion of the disturbance. But as noted above, I anticipate the development of the eastern area more strongly given current convective trends.

The aforementioned trough appears to be retrograding northward pending the arrival of a second trough off the California coast. This should cause a temporary reduction in the already improving vertical wind shear over the area. In about 48 hours, the global models show the trough amplifying and digging southward, increasing southwesterly shear over the disturbance while also slowly lifting it northward and northeastward. In the meantime, movement of this disturbance is likely to be slow, perhaps a slow drift to the west-northwest (or north-northwest if the western low dominates). There are some differences amongst the models as to which area becomes the dominant one, with the GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS favoring formation of the eastern system, while the ECMWF is infatuated with the idea of the western low consolidating. Again, given current trends, I prefer the GFS solution. If the western low dominates, the system would likely arrive to the coast about a day or two faster. In addition, the more eastward low coalescing first would also allow the system to avoid the strongest shear and cooler waters that it would otherwise encounter along the forecast track.

I am not going to get explicit with tropical cyclone development until I see which low dominates, and how the upper-level pattern ahead of the system evolves. The models don't agree either, so I'm not just rambling unreasonably.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will spread heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and localized flooding to portions of the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Interests there should monitor its progress, since nature is apparently oblivious to summer vacationers in the Acapulco area.

Probability of development in 48 hours: 20%

Probability of development in 120 hours: 50%

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 13 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

13. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:28 AM GMT on May 07, 2014
KoritheMan has created a new entry.
12. Astrometeor
5:18 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Almost anything that's ever been said has probably been stated by someone else. Our life consists of repeating everybody else. :F


Stop repeating some anonymous person who came up with that idea first you plagiarizer!

;)

Anyways, I doubt some people have said the more inane and insane things I've said.

Night.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
11. HurricaneAndre
4:59 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Nice work asst. Sensei. Keep it up. My new forecast is on the start of the Atlantic season.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3383
10. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:56 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Quoting 8. Astrometeor:



Considering Cods stole the joke from the interwebs...as did I...

Whatever, if you like to congrats him, suit yourself.

<3

Almost anything that's ever been said has probably been stated by someone else. Our life consists of repeating everybody else. :F
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
9. KoritheMan
4:50 AM GMT on May 05, 2014

Quoting 8. Astrometeor:



Considering Cods stole the joke from the interwebs...as did I...

Whatever, if you like to congrats him, suit yourself.

<3
I retract my statement.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
8. Astrometeor
4:42 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Quoting KoritheMan:

Oh hey, I actually laughed at one of your stupid jokes. Kudos.


May the 4th be with you too, honey. <3 <3 <3


Considering Cods stole the joke from the interwebs...as did I...

Whatever, if you like to congrats him, suit yourself.

<3
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
7. KoritheMan
4:27 AM GMT on May 05, 2014

Quoting 4. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Revenge of the 5th.
Oh hey, I actually laughed at one of your stupid jokes. Kudos.


Quoting 5. Astrometeor:

Hey, it's still CDT where Kori is.

Kori, May the 4th be with you.
May the 4th be with you too, honey. <3 <3 <3
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
6. KoritheMan
4:26 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Quoting 3. Wolfberry:

Keep up the good work ..was just thinking would love to read your blog when ya got one headed straight at you..no harm of course but I know you're up for the ride..appreciate your work bro..


I'm very much up for the ride, and I'm still personally hoping for a Gulf Coast major. Do appreciate your concern though, and I WILL be careful! :D
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
5. Astrometeor
4:23 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Hey, it's still CDT where Kori is.

Kori, May the 4th be with you.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
4. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:18 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Revenge of the 5th.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
3. Wolfberry
4:15 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Keep up the good work ..was just thinking would love to read your blog when ya got one headed straight at you..no harm of course but I know you're up for the ride..appreciate your work bro..
Member Since: April 1, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 211
2. Tropicsweatherpr
4:06 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Good discussion.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
1. Astrometeor
4:00 AM GMT on May 05, 2014
Cool beans. Thanks Kori.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449

Viewing: 13 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About KoritheMan

I'm just a 23 year old with an ardent passion for weather. I first became aware of this interest after Tropical Storm Isidore struck my area in 2002.