Tropical weather analysis - October 28, 2013

By: KoritheMan , 2:30 AM GMT on October 29, 2013

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Raymond

Raymond continues to weaken. As of the 2100Z NHC advisory, the following coordinates were given on the cyclone:

Wind: 70 mph, with higher gusts
Location: 16.8°N 116.9°W
Movement: N at 7 mph
Pressure: 993 mb

Satellite estimates have continued to plummet as fast as Dvorak constraints allow, with TAFB and SAB coming in with a mutual 3.0 as of 0z. This suggests that Raymond has weakened since the 21Z NHC advisory, and it will be interesting to see what they assign as the initial intensity during the upcoming 0300Z advisory.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Raymond. Image credit: NOAA's Satellite Services Division (SSD).

Satellite images show that the low-level center is completely exposed to the southwest of the remaining convection which continues to get sheared away due to about 25 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by the SHIPS model. The models show the shear increasing further, with water vapor animations continuing to strongly indicate that the winds are more likely to rise to around 35 kt during the next 24 hours. The shear, in combination with sea surface temperatures that are already starting to cool, and increasingly marginal thermodynamic profiles, should act to quickly stop the heartbeat of already half dead Raymond. Given the environment, Raymond is expected to lose its nominal status as a tropical cyclone in roughly 48 hours, but there is of course a decent chance that this will occur in as little as 36 hours. The remnant low is forecast to meander and completely lose its identity over the open Pacific well south of Baja California beyond day four.

With the center now exposed, Raymond's motion is easier to determine, and it appears to be due northward. If not for the lack of convection, there would likely be a more east of north track as of now, but there still appears to be a decent ridge around 850 mb that is preventing Raymond from moving poleward for now. Regardless, Raymond should turn northeastward very soon as the trough appears to be gradually exerting its influence even as far down the troposphere as 850 mb, albeit more slowly than heights above that level. The models continue to agree on this general scenario, with the primary difference being whether or not Raymond makes it above 20N, or remains below that latitudinal line. The GFS ECMWF, and HWRF show Raymond getting above 20N during the next 48 hours, while the GFDL does not indicate Raymond making it quite that far north. Despite the historical reliability of the GFS and ECMWF, I feel the GFDL has a better handle on the situation given the still persistent ridge in the lower troposphere, as well as the hostile conditions that prevail along the forecast track. This leads to my forecast track being a shade south of the current NHC prediction, opting instead to show an eastward drift prior to dissipation in deference to the GFDL.

Intensity forecast and positions

INITIAL 10/29 0300Z 17.1°N 117.0°W 60 KT 70 MPH
12 hour 10/29 1200Z 17.8°N 116.7°W 45 KT 50 MPH
24 hour 10/30 0000Z 18.6°N 116.2°W 35 KT 40 MPH
36 hour 10/30 1200Z 19.3°N 115.7°W 30 KT 35 MPH
48 hour 10/31 0000Z 19.5°N 115.6°W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
72 hour 11/01 0000Z 19.5°N 115.4°W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
96 hour 11/02 0000Z...DISSIPATED

Track forecast



Figure 2. My forecast track for Raymond.

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17. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:18 AM GMT on October 30, 2013
KoritheMan has created a new entry.
16. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:08 AM GMT on October 30, 2013
KoritheMan has created a new entry.
15. wxgeek723
3:05 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 14. KoritheMan:


Are you suggesting I attempt this next time there's a 50 kt severe thunderstorm?

"Hey look guys, it's the rainbands of Hurricane Melissa!"

>_>


At the risk of being deemed schizophrenic and having your credibility destroyed, yup.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3427
14. KoritheMan
3:03 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 13. wxgeek723:
You know Kori since you're all about human psych you could psychologically convince yourself there's a hurricane when there's not...I mean having tracked hurricanes for so long safely nestled away in the Northeast (though they've been paying visits as of late) how would I even know the satellite image of Ike about to crash into Texas was real, I didn't see it nor live it. I watched it through screens the whole time. How do I know the storms that don't affect me aren't just superimposed onto a satellite image? XD

Imagination


Are you suggesting I attempt this next time there's a 50 kt severe thunderstorm?

"Hey look guys, it's the rainbands of Hurricane Melissa!"

>_>
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
13. wxgeek723
2:59 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
You know Kori since you're all about human psych you could psychologically convince yourself there's a hurricane when there's not...I mean having tracked hurricanes for so long safely nestled away in the Northeast (though they've been paying visits as of late) how would I even know the satellite image of Ike about to crash into Texas was real, I didn't see it nor live it. I watched it through screens the whole time. How do I know the storms that don't affect me aren't just superimposed onto a satellite image? XD

Imagination
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3427
12. wxchaser97
2:54 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 11. KoritheMan:


Just yankin' yer chain there, pard.
It's ok, the jimmies haven't been rustled.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
11. KoritheMan
2:52 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 8. wxchaser97:
School is work bro.


Just yankin' yer chain there, pard.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
10. Doppler22
2:46 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 5. KoritheMan:


No, it's primarily because these continuous forecasts will do wonders for the "Forecast Verification" section of my Tropical Cyclone Report on the storm.

Ahh ok
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626
9. PedleyCA
2:46 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
It's the only game in town. It was our only major.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5623
8. wxchaser97
2:46 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 7. KoritheMan:


haha, no I haven't. I should go check it out. :D

Also, depends on what part of Mexico. Another tropical storm could follow behind Raymond in a few days and form off the southern coast of Mexico. The pattern is fragile enough in the longer range that it may try to come up toward southern Baja.



Pfft.
School is work bro.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
7. KoritheMan
2:43 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 3. NaplesWebDesigner56:
Raymond might have been the headliner this week, Kori! Hey, have you seen that new episode with Keeping up with the Kardashians the other day. Funny stuff. I know you like that show.

Anyways, any more big storms for the Pacific. I have a wedding down in Mexico later this Autumn and hope it stays okay!


haha, no I haven't. I should go check it out. :D

Also, depends on what part of Mexico. Another tropical storm could follow behind Raymond in a few days and form off the southern coast of Mexico. The pattern is fragile enough in the longer range that it may try to come up toward southern Baja.

Quoting 4. wxchaser97:
I would've been doing more constant blog updates on Raymond, but I got end of the term school work.


Pfft.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
6. KoritheMan
2:42 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 2. 1900hurricane:
Decoupling Raymond should provide some good mid-level moisture into the system ejecting into the southern plains in a couple of days.



Agreed.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
5. KoritheMan
2:42 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Quoting 1. Doppler22:
U have a strange fascination with Raymond
XD

Or are you just bored out of your mind?


No, it's primarily because these continuous forecasts will do wonders for the "Forecast Verification" section of my Tropical Cyclone Report on the storm.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19775
4. wxchaser97
2:40 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
I would've been doing more constant blog updates on Raymond, but I got end of the term school work.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
2. 1900hurricane
2:36 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
Decoupling Raymond should provide some good mid-level moisture into the system ejecting into the southern plains in a couple of days.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11660
1. Doppler22
2:32 AM GMT on October 29, 2013
U have a strange fascination with Raymond
XD

Or are you just bored out of your mind?
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3626

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About KoritheMan

I'm just a 23 year old with an ardent passion for weather. I first became aware of this interest after Tropical Storm Isidore struck my area in 2002.

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