Tropical weather analysis - September 15, 2013

By: KoritheMan , 5:45 AM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Ingrid

The following was posted on Ingrid during the 0600Z NHC intermediate advisory:

Wind: 85 mph, with higher gusts
Location: 22.2°N 95.2°W
Movement: NNW at 7 mph
Pressure: 986 mb
Category: 1 (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)

The satellite presentation of Ingrid is a little ragged looking, with the outflow remaining flat in the western semicircle, signaling that some westerly to southwesterly shear continues to affect the hurricane. This is likely the result of a negative interaction between Ingrid and strengthening Tropical Storm Manuel, located off the Pacific coast of southern Mexico, probably no more than about 300 miles from Ingrid.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid. Image credit: NOAA's Satellite Service Division (SSD).

Once Manuel moves inland and weakens within the next 12 hours, the shear over Ingrid should decrease, and an upper-level anticyclone should slowly build over the hurricane. Such a pattern favors significant intensification all the way up to landfall, and my forecast is a little higher than the National Hurricane Center, showing Ingrid becoming a 90 kt Category 2 just as it moves inland in 36 hours; however, it is certainly possible that Ingrid could become a major hurricane before landfall. The circulation is forecast to quickly weaken over the rugged terrain of central Mexico after landfall, with complete dissipation shown in 72 hours, if not sooner.

Lacking any concrete data, Ingrid's movement tonight is a little hard for me to determine, but based on careful analysis of shortwave infrared imagery, the hurricane still seems to be moving roughly north-northwest. However, I note that this estimate is rather uncertain, and if I'm wrong, and Ingrid is actually moving more northwest, my forecast tonight could be a little too far to the east. However, water vapor imagery shows a sharp upper-level trough over the western United States beginning to erode the western periphery of the ridge over the southern United States, which could lend some credibility to my forecast. The guidance has trended north between 18 and 0z, and have been trending in that general direction for much of the day on Saturday. I don't see much evidence of the ridge rebuilding over the southern United States like the National Hurricane Center suggests, although perhaps they see something I don't. Still, with a building mid-level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Ingrid should not make much northward progress before beginning the anticipated westward turn. My forecast track is a little to the north of the current NHC forecast. A southward motion is shown after landfall to be in agreement with the model consensus.

Hurricane warnings are up for a portion of the coast, and interests within this area should pay extra attention to Ingrid, and complete preparations to protect life and property.

Excessive rainfall from Ingrid and Manuel remains a serious threat.

Intensity forecast and positions

INITIAL 09/15 0300Z 22.0°N 95.0°W 75 KT 85 MPH
12 hour 09/15 1200Z 22.7°N 95.5°W 80 KT 90 MPH
24 hour 09/16 0000Z 23.5°N 96.5°W 85 KT 100 MPH
36 hour 09/16 1200Z 23.7°N 97.8°W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48 hour 09/17 0000Z 23.4°N 99.1°W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72 hour 09/18 0000Z 22.9°N 99.8°W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
96 hour 09/19 0000Z...DISSIPATED

Track forecast



Figure 2. My forecast track for Ingrid.



NHC storm information

000
WTNT35 KNHC 150543
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Invest 94L

The remnants of Humberto are located in the central Atlantic well away from any land areas. Satellite images show that the low-level circulation is still very well-defined, and some disorganized convection has been persisting about 75 miles northeast of the center. The current shearing environment is forecast to abate over the next 48 hours, at which time Humberto will likely regenerate into a tropical cyclone. I still think Humberto will become a hurricane again as it interacts with an upper-level trough in four or five days.



Figure 3. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 94L. Image credit: NOAA's Satellite Services Division (SSD).

Probability of development in 48 hours: 70%



Manuel

Tropical Storm Manuel continues to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. As of the latest NHC advisory, the following information was available on the cyclone:

Wind: 70 mph, with higher gusts
Location: 17.5°N 102.5°W
Movement: NNW at 7 mph
Pressure: 985 mb

While an eye is not readily apparent on satellite images, microwave data throughout the last several hours have shown a strengthening of the inner core region, with a well-defined eye and developing eyewall. I suspect Manuel will be a hurricane soon, if it is not one already; given the small size of the circulation and tight inner core region, any eye that attempts to manifest on conventional satellite images will likely be rather small.



Figure 4. Latest infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Manuel. Image credit: NOAA's Satellite Services Division (SSD).

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening up until landfall, with light shear, high relative humidity values, and very low vertical shear. Since I feel Manuel is going through a period of rapid intensification, my forecast shows the cyclone reaching 75 kt prior to moving inland within the next 12 hours. After landfall, the circulation is forecast to quickly decay.

Manuel made a jog to the right between 21 and 0z, but appears to have resumed a more definitive north-northwestward motion. Manuel should continue moving in that general direction until landfall as it is steered by a weakening subtropical ridge over the southern United States. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward and dissipate.

It is possible that Manuel could emerge into the Gulf of
California in three or four days, but it remains to be seen whether or not it can regenerate in such a state.

Extreme rainfall will lash much of eastern Mexico as Manuel combines with Ingrid to produce a highly dangerous flash flood situation there.

Intensity forecast and positions

INITIAL 09/15 0300Z 17.2°N 102.3°W 60 KT 70 MPH
12 hour 09/15 1200Z 18.1°N 102.5°W 75 KT 85 MPH...AT THE COAST
24 hour 09/16 0000Z 19.3°N 103.5°W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36 hour 09/16 1200Z 20.0°N 104.7°W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48 hour 09/17 0000Z...DISSIPATED

Track forecast



Figure 5. My forecast track for Manuel.

NHC storm information


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150544
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...MANUEL DOUSING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 102.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND MANUEL
COULD BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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About KoritheMan

I'm just a 23 year old with an ardent passion for weather. I first became aware of this interest after Tropical Storm Isidore struck my area in 2002.

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