Tropical weather analysis - November 4, 2012

By: KoritheMan , 6:06 AM GMT on November 04, 2012

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Invest 90E

An area of low pressure off over the eastern Pacific about 380 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo is moving little. The low has a well-defined surface circulation as denoted by scatterometer, satellite, and microwave data, but strong southwesterly shear is keeping the small center completely exposed. The low is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of the center for several hundred miles.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 90E. Image credit: NOAA

This activity is affecting the Mexican coast between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, but surface observations suggest that there is little wind accompanying the thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to remain highly unfavorable for additional development to occur as the low drifts slowly northwestward, then gradually turns west-northwestward away from Mexico. If the system were deeper, it would gravitate toward the mid-level flow on a path towards Mexico, but since it is devoid of convection, it will tend to follow the lower-tropospheric steering.

Probability of development in 48 hours: 20%

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4. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:17 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
KoritheMan has created a new entry.
3. wxchaser97
6:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


At least I didn't blog about a remnant low...

Rosa isn't a remnant low until the NHC says it is. But yeah you got me on that.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
2. KoritheMan
6:14 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
*yawn* Jk...
Thanks Kori.


At least I didn't blog about a remnant low...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20832
1. wxchaser97
6:12 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
*yawn* Jk...
Thanks Kori.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948

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About KoritheMan

I'm just a 23 year old with an ardent passion for weather. I first became aware of this interest after Tropical Storm Isidore struck my area in 2002.