Tropical weather analysis - June 9, 2012

By: KoritheMan , 4:51 AM GMT on June 10, 2012

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Invest 93E

An area of disturbed weather developed late Friday evening several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. This disturbance has shown signs of gradual organization over the last 24 hours. The system is decently organized on satellite imagery, though earlier microwave data suggested that the center was along the eastern edge of the convection.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 93E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

There could still be a little bit of easterly shear over the system, but any negative effect from this is deemed to be negligible. In fact, the current cloud outflow pattern is rather impressive, and objective upper wind analyses from the CIMSS-UW laboratory suggest that an anticyclone may be forming over the system. If true, the system will likely develop quicker than the models are indicating. However, since I am not completely convinced the system isn't experiencing easterly shear, I will not forecast rapid intensification.

With ample instability and adequate shear values, there is little reason why this system should not steadily develop.

Although some of the guidance appears to have initialized the circulation a little prematurely, the general agreement is for a west-northwest track under the influence of a ridge to the north. This seems supported by water vapor imagery, as well. Later in the forecast period, the GFS suggests the system could turn southwest. Presumably, this is the model responding to the anomalous northwesterly flow on the western side of a secondary tropical cyclone the global models develop to the east of 93E in a few days enhancing the ridge to the north. Since the incipient system is now evident entering the far eastern Pacific, a possible, although aclimatological, southwestward motion later in the period cannot be fully ignored. It should be noted that the ECMWF loses the circulation in about three days, becoming absorbed by the larger cyclonic gyre to the east. Although the secondary system is moving faster than 93E, it is quite distant, and most likely, the abrupt demise of the vortex in this model is related to poor initialization. However, I find it hard to believe this system will not have at least some impact on 93E. For now, I will side with the GFS and keep a separate entity throughout the forecast period.

Probability of genesis within the next 48 hours: 40%

Possible tropical cyclone behind 93E?

As alluded to earlier, the large disturbance encompassing the far eastern Pacific and southwestern Caribbean could eventually become the season's next tropical depression. The global models are unanimous in developing a large hurricane out of this system, with some even bringing it to the coast of Mexico late next week. There is no obvious meteorological reason why this cannot happen.

Atlantic development possible

I've neglected to mention this, but the global models, particularly the GFS, have been forecasting the development of a tropical disturbance forming in the western Caribbean in the next 7 - 10 days, and then becoming a tropical storm as it up moves up the western Florida coast. All meteorological facets appear supportive of this: the MJO is returning to our area of the world (hence the activity in the eastern Pacific), ridging is forecast to develop in the eastern portion of the nation, and upper-level winds are forecast to become lighter. That's all that can be said for now. Stay tuned.

Lastly, the ECMWF has been consistent in developing a weak tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche in about 10 days, but none of the other models show this.

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4. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:33 PM GMT on June 10, 2012
Thanks Kori, you better keep doing yours too..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34477
3. traumaboyy
6:43 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Good job Kori!!

Thanks!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2266
2. K8eCane
5:01 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Thanks Kori!
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3511
1. Civicane49
4:59 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Great post. Thanks!
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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About KoritheMan

I'm just a 23 year old with an ardent passion for weather. I first became aware of this interest after Tropical Storm Isidore struck my area in 2002.

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